With 25 days to go between now and the start of the regular season, it’s way too early to begin crafting DFS lineups that will actually be playable come September. But Draftkings released Week 1 NFL pricing on Wednesday and if you’re anything like the crew here at Footballguys, you’ve spent most of the days since happily creating dozens of lineups, despite the certainty preseason fallout will blow up at least 80% of them before the real games start.
Just in case you happen across this article in the next few weeks while prepping for Week 1, allow me to state the obvious:
You’re about to read my first blush, knee-jerk reactions to DraftKings’ Week 1 pricing. As summer winds down, some of these takes are going to appear downright silly, but we need to begin exercising our DFS brains in preparation for the season and it's never too early to begin checking a site's pricing for inefficiencies.
Here is what jumped off the spreadsheet as I began tinkering with Week 1 lineups:
Rishard Matthews is the Top Wide Receiver Value
Rishard Matthews might seem like a better candidate for top wide receiver bore, but hear me out. Oakland at Tennessee currently has the highest over/under on the Week 1 slate (52 points), and with the Raiders favored by only one point on the road, Vegas sees this matchup going back and forth. Last season, Oakland games went over 50 total points nine times, while the Titans had seven games that combined for 50+ points. This game has shootout written all over it, meaning the big names from both teams -- Amari Cooper, Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree, Marcus Mariota, DeMarco Murray -- will be highly owned in tournaments.
But will the crowd be eager to click on Matthews, despite his way too low WR43 price tag (the same as Mohamed Sanu)? It remains to be seen, but my early guess is the Titans high profile additions of Corey Davis and Eric Decker will shade Matthews a bit, despite the following facts:
- Davis is a rookie dealing with a significant hamstring injury. Even if he is ready to play by Week 1, we have to question how much playing time he can handle and how productive he can be after what’s shaping up as a multi-week absence.
- Matthews is Mariota’s most trusted and familiar target. Last season, he didn’t just lead the Titans in receiving yards (965) and touchdowns (9), Matthews was extremely efficient with the 108 targets he received. His 14.5 yards per reception ranked 14th in the league (minimum 75 targets) and he scored a touchdown on 8.3% of his targets, which placed him inside the top-6.
- Matthews scored seven of his nine touchdowns from inside the red zone in 2016. His 15 red zone targets were right there with DeMarco Murray (18) and Delanie Walker (17) for the team lead and Matthews’ 47% red zone touchdown conversion rate was second-best among wide receivers behind only Donte Moncrief. While his 2016 red zone success may scream regression to some, it’s important to remember Marcus Mariota has been historically efficient in the red zone over his brief career, completing 64% of his red zone passes for 33 touchdowns against zero interceptions. Decker and a healthy Davis will eat into Matthews’ red zone opportunity from a season long perspective, but with Davis looking unlikely to contribute much in Week 1, Vegas expecting a shootout, and the Raiders allowing a touchdown on 60% of their opponent’s red zone visits a season ago, Matthews has to be considered a coin flip bet for a touchdown in this one.
At only $4,200, Matthews represents the least expensive path to 6-8 quality targets in what could be the highest scoring game on the slate. If you want to jam in two top running backs, or a top running back and wide receiver, you’ll need to get salary relief from somewhere and Matthews only needs something in the range of a 5-50-1 receiving line to pay off his modest salary.
