Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Green Bay | -7 | 50 | 28.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| New England | Kansas City | -5 | 42 | 23.5 | + | + | ++ |
| Carolina | Seattle | -2.5 | 44 | 23.25 | + | ||
| Denver | Pittsburgh | -7 | 39 | 23 | + | + | +++ |
| Arizona | Green Bay | 7 | 50 | 21.5 | + | ||
| Seattle | Carolina | 2.5 | 44 | 20.75 | |||
| Kansas City | New England | 5 | 42 | 18.5 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Denver | 7 | 39 | 16 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals)
- Running Back: David Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/Michael Floyd (Cardinals)
- Defense: Broncos
2-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: None
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Patriots
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Cam Newton (Panthers), Peyton Manning (Broncos), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Steven Jackson/James White (Patriots), Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson (Broncos)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Ted Ginn Jr Jr./Corey Brown/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Owen Daniels (Broncos), Randall Cobb/James Jones/Davante Adams/Richard Rodgers (Packers)
- Defense: None