Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | -2.5 | 46.5 | 24.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Seattle | Minnesota | -5.5 | 41.5 | 23.5 | +++ | + | +++ |
| Washington | Green Bay | -1 | 45.5 | 23.25 | + | + | |
| Green Bay | Washington | 1 | 45.5 | 22.25 | + | ||
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | 2.5 | 46.5 | 22 | + | ||
| Kansas City | Houston | -3.5 | 40 | 21.75 | + | ++ | |
| Houston | Kansas City | 3.5 | 40 | 18.25 | |||
| Minnesota | Seattle | 5.5 | 41.5 | 18 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: DeAngelo Williams (Steelers)
- Receivers: Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Markus Wheaton/Heath Miller (Steelers)
- Defense: Chiefs
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), A.J. McCarron (Bengals)
- Running Back: Alfred Morris/Matt Jones (Redskins), Charcandrick West/Spencer Ware (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Randall Cobb/James Jones/Davante Adams/Richard Rodgers (Packers), A.J. Green/Marvin Jones/Tyler Eifert (Bengals)
- Defense: None