Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and the top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (06/11-6/19) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Calvin Ridley WR TEN +2.2 ADP
- Christian Kirk WR JAC +2.0 ADP
- Tee Higgins WR CIN +1.9 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Ja'Lynn Polk WR NE +3.8
- Curtis Samuel WR BUF +3.2
- Chris Godwin WR TB +2.5
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Braelon Allen RB NYJ +5.8
- Jaleel McLaughlin RB DEN +4.6
- Elijah Mitchell RB SF +3.7
The Risers Takeaways: In the first 12 rounds we have all six risers at the wide receiver position with Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Tee Higgins, Ja'Lynn Polk, Curtis Samuel, and Chris Godwin. ADP continues to favor the wide receiver position on Underdog and as drafters look to build out their rosters they are being forced to reach at the position and in turn the biggest risers this week continue to come from the wide receiver position. As time moves on it is going to become harder and harder to to find much value at the position so drafters might be forced to get creative in their drafting.
In the later rounds we are seeing the running backs get a bump up in ADP with the likes of Braelon Allen, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Elijah Mitchell as you biggest risers in the last six rounds of drafts. Both Allen and Mitchell give you that big handcuff appeal is either Breece Hall or Christian McCaffrey were to go down with injury they look the part to slide right into the lineup. As for Jaleel McLaughlin there is buzz in camp and he showed he could contribute last season so a continued rise in ADP is likely in the cards for him moving forward. He remains a good buy even though he is in the middle of a crowded Broncos backfield.
Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- Josh Jacobs RB GB -2.9 ADP
- Kyren Williams RB LAR -2.7 ADP
- Sam LaPorta TE DET -2.6 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- Javonte Williams RB DEN -3.0
- Alvin Kamara RB NO -2.7
- Aaron Jones RB MIN -2.7
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- T.J. Hockenson TE MIN -4.3
- Ben Sinnott TE WAS -4.3
- D'Onta Foreman RB CLE -4.3
The Faller Takeaways: We are seeing some big names that are falling in the first five rounds with Josh Jacobs and Kyren Williams as elite level running backs and Sam LaPorta as the TE1 overall last season. Again this is a reflection on the rising cost of wide receivers so you see the flip side of it with the falling costs at the running back and tight end position.
Out of the nine players in the fallers section this week we have six running backs and three tight ends. In the mid rounds we see some big names in Javonte Williams, Alvin Kamara, and Aaron Jones as age might start being more of a factor with these players and they have competition on the depth chart that is making drafters question their ADP prices. In the late round we see T.J. Hockenson continue to fall as we have little evidence of his return timetable. We also see Ben Sinnott ADP start to adjust and correct as he got steamed up the board the last couple of months based on his draft capital and with drafters chasing the rookie tight ends after what we saw last season. D'Onta Foreman rounds out the fallers and he is just a late round player that has showed glimpses in the past but at the same time has really disappointed with his opportunity.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR Tee Higgins CIN - Signs franchise tag
- QB Trevor Lawrence JAC - Signs a 5-year, $275M extension.
- RB Gus Edwards LAC - Injured but should be ready for camp.
- WR Ja'Lynn Polk NE - Thriving at minicamp.
- TE Juwan Johnson NO - Needs foot surgery
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA - Exits pracitce with a shoulder injury.
- QB Sam Darnold MIN - Will head to camp as QB1
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 26.1% (22% last week) fill rate - 175,500/672,672, with 27,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 18,500/186,672 full, which is up 3,500 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini that is 39,000/56,004 full, which is up 9,000 entries and has a top prize of $20,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 147,600/882,144 full, which is up 27,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
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