You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
is Matt Barkley-to-marquess Wilson a stretch-run value combo This week?
One of the most entertaining components of fantasy football is how a fringe roster candidate and a career backup can become the talk of the hobby during the most important time of the year. That's what happened when Eagles and Cardinals castoff Matt Barkley (28/54 for 316 yards, 3 TDs, 2 Ints) paired up with four-year veteran receiver Marquess Wilson (11 targets, 8 grabs, 125 yards, 1 score) for an eye-catching afternoon against the Titans.
With the San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers on the Bears schedule, the Footballguys staff has had a lot to say about these two options. Scott Bischoff's Starting Stacks touts the Barkley-Wilson duo as a high-risk starting stack in DFS leagues thanks to price and the 49ers defense:
The Bears are favored by 2.5 points at home against a 49ers team that has been scoring points on offense but isn’t stopping anyone on the defensive side of the ball. Vegas has the total at 44 points and the Bears have an implied total of 23 points while the 49ers implied total is 21 points.
The 49ers are the league’s No. 15 ranked passing unit and are allowing a passer rating of 99.9 to opposing quarterbacks. The 49ers allow 7.5 yards per attempt which is ninth-worst in the NFL and have given up 26 touchdowns in 2016. Only the Cleveland Browns have allowed more touchdowns than the 49ers to date.
The 49ers have allowed 236 completions which is ranked No. 9 league-wide. However, they’ve allowed a touchdown-to-completion ratio of 11 percent which is the worst rate in the NFL. While teams aren’t completing a large quantity of passes, it’s more about the quality of plays they’re yielding. They are giving up a huge number of touchdowns in relation to their number of completions.
The 49ers are also being hit for big passing plays on a consistent basis. The 49ers have given up 40 passing plays of 20+ yards which is a rate of 17 percent in relation to the completions they’ve allowed. The 49ers are ranked No. 28 in this category.
The 49ers have given up eight passing plays of 40+ yards which is a rate of 3.4 percent in relation to the completions they’ve allowed. They are ranked No. 24 in the NFL in this category. All of the above numbers have Barkley’s outlook pointing in a very positive direction.
Wilson emerged last week in his second game back from a foot injury that has cost him 10 games this year. He has 11 targets last week when paired with Barkley and caught eight passes for 125 yards and a score. He’s a value play at his price in Week 13...
...Barkley will have the opportunity to make plays this week but it doesn’t come without risk.
It is December and this game will be played outdoors in Chicago and Vegas doesn’t like this game to be a high-scoring affair with a total set at 44 points. Therein lies the risk as it is possible that there aren’t enough points to warrant this stack, but it has enough upside and comes at a reduced price which makes it super intriguing.
Phil Alexander expressed more reservation than optimism about Barkley based on his review of the game for the DFS Roundtable:
...If anyone is thinking about investing in the Bears passing offense with Matt Barkley at the helm after he went for 316 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans, you may want to rethink that strategy – even with the 49ers visiting Solider Field this week.
Barkley's Week 12 performance says much more about the Titans defense than it does about his prospects moving forward. Tennesee was unable to muster a pass rush against a Chicago offensive line that hasn't fared particularly well in protection this season. Given so much time to operate, Barkley was able to move the ball against one of the worst secondary groups in the NFL (two predictable interceptions notwithstanding).
Granted, the 49ers are worse than the Titans at rushing the passer, and San Fransisco's pass defense isn't markedly better than Tennessee's. But at least the 49ers will have some tape on Barkley, who struggled late in the game when the Titans started throwing blitzes at him.
Besides, this is Matt Barkley we're talking about. The same player who recorded four interceptions and three fumbles against zero touchdown passes in his first two NFL seasons.
Not that you were thinking of playing Barkley (at least I hope not), but I understand the tempation of punting WR3 with Marquiss Wilson, who is familiar, cheap, in a great matchup, coming off an 8-125-1 receiving line, and surrounded by no other wideouts capable of commanding targets. Just know there is a much better chance of this game being a complete washout for fantasy purposes (outside of Jordan Howard) than there is of any member of the Bears passing offense repeating their big Week 12 stat lines due to Barkley's terrifying downside.
Bischoff and Alexander don't agree on Barkley—to be fair to Bischoff, his recommendation is only for the risk-friendly—but they both have a stronger regard for Wilson. Ari Ingel agrees. He notes in The Docket that Wilson should draw cornerback Tramaine Brock, "who is decent, but got roasted by DeVante Parker last week."
Sigmund Bloom is also bullish on Wilson as his top sleeper option among Week 13 receivers:
Wilson shouldn’t be under the radar after his 8-125-1 line against the Titans in only his second game back last week, but he was on the waiver wire in most leagues, so some might be reluctant to start him. Consider that Wilson also dropped a second touchdown and played 47 snaps in the game and his ceiling looks even higher against a 49ers defense that has allowed 20 wide receiver touchdowns this year and 10 in the last 5 weeks. Wilson has proven to be the Bears best deep threat with Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White out, and Matt Barkley seemed to have the best chemistry with Wilson in Week 12 of any of the team’s ragtag receiver corps.
Bloom, like Bischoff, also likes Barkley as a desperation option:
Barkley won’t attempt 54 passes this week, but he won’t need to against San Francisco. Let’s also remember that his receivers dropped eight passes last week, including three in the end zone, or he would have had an even bigger game and forged a huge comeback win against Tennessee. This week he draws a 49ers pass defense that has allowed multiple passing scores in every game this year except their Week 1 thrashing of Case Keenum and Carson Palmer’s 376-yard game in Week 10. Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, and even Drew Stanton managed the feat against them without throwing more than 30 passes, so a regression to reality in Barkley’s attempts this week shouldn’t scare you off of playing him in a desperation situation.
My Advice: In this week's Gut Check, I also recommended Barkley as a subpar quarterback on film who offers quality fantasy potential down the stretch if you can (and you should) divorce quality from production:
The best advice I can give you about fantasy quarterbacks (and really any position for that matter) at the end of the year is to divorce quality from production. Long-term fantasy options maintain a specific level of quality that earns them a starting role. Short-term fantasy options can make horrific decisions, lose games, and eventually get benched, but if they're given the ball enough times, the production will still be there.
I love Phil Alexander's analysis about blitzing Barkley and that the 49ers should be more prepared to face him than the Titans. It's a good theory, but I'm not optimistic it pays off in practice because the 49ers need the players capable of executing the strategy.
Scott Bischoff's point about the big-play efficiency per passing attempt against the 49ers leads me to think that blitzing would be like pouring gasoline on a fire. If Barkley were a rookie or only had a week or two with the team to learn the offense before taking the field, I'd agree with Phil's it's Matt Barkley point.
He may wind up right, but Barkley has grown up behind the scenes. It doesn't make him a quality NFL starter, but he has been working at his craft and he won't get pulled in this situation. If you're desperate for a quarterback due to injury or potential horrific matchups down the stretch, I recommend Barkley as that break-the-glass option.
Also referencing this week's Gut Check column, Wilson is easily a fantasy WR3 candidate:
This stretch-run is the 24-year-old's tryout for a new team. He's a good fade-route option with burst after the catch on crossing routes. Think of him as a poor man's Tyrell Williams down the stretch. He'll be used him similar ways with perhaps more fade routes.
I added Barkley in a two-QB league this week (for $1...my last FAB dollar) in case Blake Bortles finds a new low and if I had the funds, Wilson would have been tops on my list.
Remember production over quality in the short-term. Both players provide an enhanced potential for points right now.
in Vernon we trust?
Jene Bramel's report on Washington tight end Jordan Reed describes a tenuous outlook as I write this during the wee hours of Friday morning:
Jordan Reed again missed practice today. Tomorrow will be important. If Reed can get a limited practice in, it's a sign Washington is considering him in the game plan. If not, it's very possible he rests at least one week.
The big question becomes Vernon Davis. Can fantasy owners trust him against a Cardinals defense that's stingy against the tight end position? Sigmund Bloom is optimistic about Davis as a sleeper.
Jordan Reed is banged up and might not face the Cardinals this week. Davis is poised to take over a full-time role for the first time since Week 7, when he had 6-79 against Detroit. Even with Reed back in the lineup, Davis has been a good play three of the last four weeks, and the return of DeSean Jackson should keep safeties occupied and open up the middle of the field for the resurgent tight end. Davis has caught 19 of his last 22 targets for over 16 yards a catch. He has at least four targets in each of the games Reed has missed, so if Reed is out, we can pencil Davis in for TE1 numbers again this week.
Ari Ingel is dour on Davis, noting the Cardinals defense plays the tight end well. Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant crunch the data and agree it's a tough matchup:
Arizona has averaged 20.1 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks (11th-least in the NFL); and 27 fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers (eighth-most); but just 2.9 fantasy points given up per game to tight ends (least in the NFL). This is a solid unit that fell short in Atlanta. The Washington pass defense has to travel to the desert for this game - advantage, Arizona.
Phil Alexander also doesn't like the data, noting that Arizona is the second-ranked pass defense DVOA against tight ends. At risk of fooling around at this hour and toying with the idea of referring to myself in the third person (you can keep it, T.O.), explained how Washington's offense appears to have incorporated Davis into its scheme as a productive contributor with or without Reed in the lineup in this week's Top 10:
I'm convinced that Vernon Davis will remain a viable fantasy option this year based on what I've seen when he and Jordan Reed have been on the field at the same time against Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Dallas. The Thanksgiving game revealed how Davis has been integrated into the offense as part of two-man games with Reed, Jamison Crowder, and Desean Jackson.
When Davis is paired with Jackson, defenses are forced to converge on Jackson due to his speed—despite the fact that Davis has great speed for a tight end. When Davis and Jackson both go deep, it clears out the middle for the outlet receivers.
As the game progresses and Davis gashes teams for chain-moving plays after the catch, the tight end's presence eventually benefits the receiver paired with him.
This game also extends to a Crowder-Davis pairing. In this case, teams are more concerned about Crowder after the catch than Davis and it can draw the eye of the cornerback with deeper zone responsibilities. When this happens, Davis can work behind the corner for a bigger catch in the intermediate zone.
Here's Davis paired with Reed and the space he earns with defenses concerned about Reed gives Davis room to roam as a runner after the catch. Pick your poison...
Not only does Davis still have game-changing physical skills, but he's in an offense that offers so many options that he's benefitting from defenses choosing the younger players as the bigger priority to stop. It makes him a potential high-volume target against zone defenses and a big-play target against units that play man outside or over top and there's a risk for a blown coverage deep.
Washington plays Arizona, Philadelphia, Carolina, and Chicago down the stretch. Tyrann Mathieu is a tough draw but if Reed is Mathieu's primary assignment, Davis could thrive. I think he's a boom-bust play for this game but with a high enough floor to give you no worse that TE2 production in PPR leagues.
My Advice: Obviously, I like Davis. But let's examine the arguments of Wimer, Bryant, and Alexander because I shouldn't be touting Davis against the Cardinals unless there's a strong contextual argument against the data.
As I often do here, let's look at Footballguys Defensive Game Logs. It's a simple tool, but for someone like me who watches a ton of football, these have proven most valuable for making good calls this year in this feature.
Looking at this list, I'm going to call it right now: The Cardinals defense against tight ends is a paper champion.
| NAME | WK | TARG | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 3 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 4 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 10 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 10 | 6 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 11 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 11 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 12 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
My contextual case against the Cardinals as a good defender of tight ends:
- Martellus Bennett was working with Jimmy Garoppolo in the season opener and Rob Gronkowski was out.
- Cameron Brate and Austin-Seferian Jenkins were not only splitting time, the rest of the receiving corps was healthy and after a great Week 1, Jameis Winston's game cratered and Dirk Koetter took the keys away for several weeks, running the offense through free agent Jacquizz Rodgers.
- Nick O'Leary? Child, please. The Bills spent the offseason showing Tyrod Taylor film of all the middle of the field opportunities he missed with Charles Clay running wide open. Taylor's greatest weakness is seeing and throwing to the middle of the field.
- Lance Kendricks had a solid day and he's actually a solid option when targeted.
- The 49ers had Blaine Gabbert under center.
- Jimmy Graham, like Kendricks, can catch and has a quarterback who will target him.
- The Panthers offensive line is running on fumes due to injuries and the Game Recap validates what I also saw, Carolina passing little early and when Newton targeted Olsen, he was inaccurate.
- While Kyle Rudolph is also a good tight end with bad production against the Cardinals, he was used more as a blocker.
- Atlanta uses the tight end as much as this suburban sprawl of a city uses the MARTA.
Even if you say the Cardinals took away Olsen, I don't see a good argument for its stats having worthwhile context. If you're in a PPR league and Reed is out, I think Davis has a strong opportunity for 4-6 catches this week. Even if Reed plays, there's enough two-man game happening with Davis and the receivers mentioned above that he should earn 3-4 catches, and likely more due to Reed's injury.
Geeking over Tyreek
When it comes to Tyreek Hill, B.J. VanderWoude is as giddy as Al Davis used to be on Monday mornings after Cliff Branch scorched the AFC West. It's so wrong of me to use Al Davis in a happy context in comparison to a Chiefs player, but I don't care. VanderWoude broached Hill's value in this week's DFS Roundtable.
You can't judge speed from a box score, and the two fastest players I've seen with the ball in their hands this year are Gabriel and Tyreek Hill.
Hill has broken out at the perfect time for a Kansas City offense that has been struggling to move the ball for most of the season. Jeremy Maclin's injury, combined with Spencer Ware's sudden disappearance in the passing game, has caused fits for an already conservative and vanilla Chiefs offense. In past years, the Chiefs have relied on Jamaal Charles' big play ability to gain big chunks of yards because they lack that ability in the passing game due to Alex Smith's deficiencies as a downfield passer. Without Charles, they desperately needed a player who can gain yards after the catch and keep them afloat in games where they are forced to score 21+ points. Hill has been that player and then some. Last week, his speed was on full display, scoring on a kickoff (safety) return, as well as both a runner and a receiver. He has given a jolt to the Kansas City offense and is beginning to force opposing defenses to game plan against him, which should go a long way in helping their stagnant rushing attack.
Justin Howe also loves Hill's cost-efficiency this weekend in his DraftKings Rundown. Even if you don't play DFS, the data is worthwhile.
Hill’s salary remains incredibly low despite his eruptive Week 12. We don’t want to overreact to a big day that involved kick returning, no, but it’s important to note that that wasn’t Hill’s first, nor even his second, eruption. He’s now topped 20 points in 3 of his last 5 games, and the first 2 didn’t require a rushing or a return touchdown. Hill is merely entrenched near the top of Kansas City’s Jeremy Maclin-less passing game, boasting 28 targets over the last 3 weeks. That makes him a true volume option – far more so than his tiny $4,800 salary calls for – in addition to a play-to-play threat for a long score. Another big target day would just obliterate his meager cash marker, and no option on this slate, regardless of position, has a better shot at 4x value.
Ari Ingel also notes the Falcons' defense as a good matchup for Hill in the Docket:
Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin – Without CB Trufant, this Falcons secondary is very beatable and is giving up g 42.8 FPG to opposing WRs the past five weeks. Hill is a great gadget player, so you don’t really know where the plays are going to come from, but they will come as he is being targeted on over 31% of his routes, the best in the league … yet, that was without Maclin. I like Hill as a high upside WR3 and Maclin as a steady PPR WR3 if he plays.
My Advice: Yes, you roll Hill out against the Falcons defense. Because the Chiefs "gadgetize" Hill, he should earn opportunities to exploit the Falcons young linebackers who are still struggling to cover opponents. If Andy Reid doesn't find a way to match Hill against these linebackers at least 3-5 times, he should be ashamed.
staying Blount
With Rob Gronkowski done for the year and Martellus Bennett playing on a high ankle sprain since the beginning of the year, there's a legitimate theory that Dion Lewis is poised to take over and render LeGarrette Blount's role to a supporting part in the red zone and salting games away.
Sigmund Bloom has Lewis has his cover guy in this week's Sleepers:
Lewis’s snaps, carries, targets, and receptions all ticked up in Week 12, and he should have all of the rust knocked off for a Week 13 game against the Rams. That Rams defense just allowed 49 points to New Orleans, and they are facing a New England offense that has absolutely owned Jeff Fisher teams the last two times they played him, outscoring the Rams and Titans by a combined score of 104-7. Last week, the Rams gave up two receiving scores to running backs, and they gave up another in Week 10. New England’s pair of big red zone targets at tight end are both ailing in this one, so Lewis is the favorite to get any scores LeGarette Blount doesn’t hoard to himself after already getting five red zone touches in his first two games back.
I'm also worried about Blount's long-term outlook with Gronkowski out when updating my Pats O-Theory in this week's Top 10:
Although Dion Lewis looks good, Blount remains the best every-down runner on the depth chart. What should concern fantasy owners are the injuries to Bennett and Gronkowski. Both tight ends are excellent blockers and if neither can play (or play well enough to block), it makes the Patriots' ground game more predictable because Bennett won't be an effective front side blocker. Blount will still have value at the goal line and he was productive in this game after Bennett's injury, but I wouldn't be surprised if New England spread the field more if Gronkowski doesn't return for the Rams next week and that means Blount could see less time and reduce his effectiveness as a fantasy constant in this offense.
James White continues earning time with the starting rotation during two-minute drills and red zone plays where they want to trick a defense with a screen or end-around. But White is no only losing some looks to Lewis, but when he's on the field he's also getting paired with Lewis in the backfield at the same time. White is now a boom-bust flex option, at best. Even against zone defenses.
Because of what I described above, Lewis has more upside as a receiver and runner when the matchup is zone. He's the better runner between the tackles than White, which makes him the more frequent option for draw plays and middle screens. His speed and burst make him a more desirable downfield option on the 1-2 shot plays Brady likes to throw to running backs since the Patriots installed wheel routes with the addition of Shane Vereen several years ago.
My colleagues have far fewer concerns this week about Blount. Most of them are bullish. Maurile Tremblay, who correctly picked Jonathan Stewart as an RB1 last week, lists Blount as a top-10 back this weekend against the Rams.
Justin Howe provides some compelling data about Blount in relation to Las Vegas lines in his Cost Efficiency Rundown and his Dark Zone feature:
His appeal, which is always one-dimensional, is slipping: Blount has brought GPP value only once in the last four weeks. He doesn’t catch passes, and his touchdown outlook is always at the mercy of Tom Brady’s arm. But anytime his Patriots are strong Vegas favorites, DFSers need to take notice. Dating back to last year, across 4 games as a favorite of 10 or more, Blount averages 5.6 more rushes, 29.6 more yards, and 0.57 more TDs than otherwise. All told, his DraftKings production shoots up by 48% in those scenarios; he’s simply their engine with a big lead. They currently sit at -13.5 for their home tilt with the anemic Rams, an outlook unlikely to change before Sunday. With a slipping salary, Blount is a fair GPP stab at 100 yards and multiple scores.
Scott Bischoff likes the Rams defense as a good reason to start Blount this week.
The Rams have the NFL’s 20th ranked run defense and are allowing 4.3 yards per carry which also ranks ninth-worst in the NFL. Only two teams in the NFL have surrendered more runs of 20 or more yards than the 10 the Rams have allowed.
From a game script outlook, the Patriots should be up in this game with the Rams being forced to throw the ball to get back into the game. Rookie quarterback Jared Goff starts his third game this week on the road for the Rams and that will give the Patriots more than a few chances to make plays in this game.
My Advice: The greatest concern I have is New England rolling with spread sets that don't include an in-line tight end. If this becomes the predominant look for the Patriots this weekend, Dion Lewis becomes the man. If Martellus Bennett can plant and drive as a blocker, something he couldn't do at the end of the game last week, Blount has a good shot of producing.
In fact, if you look at the video in the link, you'll notice that this play was Blount's big run in the fourth quarter and Bennett was put on the backside of the play. It could become a predictable mess that hinders Blount if the Rams figure this out and adjust fast, but I'm optimistic that the game script and red zone opportunities will help Blount earn respectable fantasy totals this week.
I'm starting Blount because I have to. I won't recommend him as an RB1, but I think he lands in the top 15-24.
playoff Advice
Lot's of good tips floated around Footballguys this week in regard to the playoffs. Jeff Haseley devoted this week's Fantasy Overview to the subject. Here's a taste of his 10 Key Factors For Advancing In The Playoffs And Winning A Championship:
5. Lineup decisions - Play your studs, but also play matchups. Often times, your third wide receiver will be the one who saves your team, thanks to a big game that likely was the result of a game script in his favor. Take a game from Week 11 for example where Washington hosted Green Bay, whose defense was struggling, especially in the secondary. The sharp move was to exploit that weakness and consider starting a guy like Jamison Crowder or Pierre Garcon. They both finished with 100 yards and a touchdown. DeSean Jackson also scored in that game. The decision to play Crowder over someone else who had more fantasy points but had a poor match up, ultimately put you in the catbird seat. It's also good to take note of which wide receivers will be faced up against an opponent's second cover corner. We saw this last week with Atlanta and Arizona. Julio Jones was contested by Patrick Peterson which opened up more opportunities for Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu. Sanu caught 8 passes and Gabriel collected big points with two key touchdowns.
6. Exploit weak match ups - Knowing who to play and which teams to exploit is a big advantage. Players who are matched up against teams like the Saints, Browns, Bears, Panthers, 49ers, Packers, Colts etc are the ones you want to target. Do your homework and play the right match ups.
7. Target players at home, especially running backs - Running backs at home tend to score more fantasy points than on the road, especially backs on winning teams. Winning teams often have a point cushion later in games where they will tend to lean on their back to control the clock. Winning teams at home also have a tendency to have an advantage on the snap count and therefore the offensive line is quicker to control the line of scrimmage. This all benefits the running back as well as the quarterback. The match up I like best for a quarterback is a home game against a team with a similarly effective quarterback. You want that back and forth battle of offenses where the majority of each team's possessions result in a score.
8. Follow Vegas lines, especially over/under point totals - Many sportsbook sites like VegasInsider.com have NFL lines and over/under totals. The games with higher point totals tend to lead to higher fantasy production games. Usually games forecasted to exceed 48 points or more are the ones you want to target for making lineup decisions. Most weeks there's at least one matchup with 50+ expected points. Exploit those games. Our John Lee writes an article every week in our DFS section showing which matchups will yield the most expected points.
This week's Roundtable also provided a treasure trove of advice from Danny Tuccitto. Some of it seemingly goes against Hasley's matchup advice, but hang with me here until the end:
Danny Tuccitto: My biggest piece of advice is the old saying, "Dance with the one that brung ya." There are skill position players on your team that led you to the playoffs. I'm not just talking about no-brainer studs here; even RB2, WR3, FLEX, or TE counts. Do not bench these players. The reasons are twofold.
First, the dirty little statistical secret in fantasy analytics is that team matchups don't matter as much as you think. So say Jamison Crowder has been a catalyst for your late-season surge. Don't bench him in Week 14 just because DVOA says Philadelphia is the No. 2 pass defense and your bench has Steve Smith going against No. 27 New England.
Second, as Sigmund Bloom frequently points out, we "play" fantasy football, so it should mostly be about fun, positive emotions, etc. unless serious money— or professional bragging rights—is on the line. If you're second-guessing yourself or don't feel entirely comfortable when making a particular lineup change, just don't do it. If starting Smith over Crowder in Week 14 propels you to a win, the joy will last about a week. If it's the reason you lost, the misery will last an offseason.
Another piece of advice is that, although team matchups don't matter as much as you think, the weather matters a lot, but only in five specific ways as far as analytics can tell. Compelling research by Brian Burke has shown the following:
- Win percentage for dome teams drops considerably when playing on the road in temperatures at or below 40 degrees.
- Pass efficiency drops considerably in wind speeds at or above 15 miles per hour.
- Teams run the ball more often in wind speeds at or above 15 miles per hour.
- Accuracy on long field goals (i.e., 45 yards or more) drops considerably when kicking in temperatures at or below 30 degrees.
- From any given distance, teams attempt fewer field goals in wind speeds at or above 15 miles per hour.
My final piece of advice relates to my first one but only applies to those playing in leagues where rosters are locked when the regular season ends: During the last week of the regular season, sacrifice marginal, low-ceiling players at the skill positions in favor of kickers and defenses. Let's face it, your WR6 (or QB3 or RB5, etc.) is never going to see your starting lineup in the playoffs, especially if you're following, "dance with the one that brung ya."
But maybe you have Dustin Hopkins or Josh Lambo and notice that their Week 16 games are in Cleveland and Chicago, respectively. Don't hesitate to drop a low-ceiling skill position player at the end of your bench for a better option. Or maybe you have Arizona's defense or Carolina's defense and notice that, in Week 15, the former hosts New Orleans (No. 4 offense DVOA) or the latter visits Washington (No. 6 offense DVOA).
Don't hesitate to drop a low-ceiling skill position player at the end of your bench for, say, the Giants, who currently rank 12th in fantasy points and are hosting Detroit (i.e., a potential "dome at cold" plus "wins above 15 miles per hour" weather matchup).
My Advice: Data, film, and common sense. If you can figure out how to combine these things correctly, you're good to go. I'll do my best to help you.
Vegas lines are a good start with the data because it's a rough indication of what experts who study the games think the scoring will be. But if you ask me, we have something better at Footballguys to drill down: David Dodd's Game Predictor. By this time of the year, Game Predictor delivers an excellent idea of how the run-pass production will look for each team.
This is the data starting point. The film is a good place to determine who in the passing game or running game has the best role. We talk a lot about matchups, but as Danny mentioned, a player's role is more important.
Xavier Rhodes is a tough matchup for most receivers but Dez Bryant had a good outing Thursday evening. For starters, he beat Rhodes multiple times and his touchdown was a matchup with a safety. Remember, one defender rarely shadows a receiver on every single play. Offenses live for those 1-3 opportunities to exploit an optimal matchup.
Bryant only had a safety cover him deep with a linebacker over the receiver in the shallow zone once in this game. It was one time too many and Bryant fantasy owners are the happier for it.
When it comes to learning about role, the Top 10 and Game Recaps are devoted to studying tape. You also get some of this context from The Docket, Pushing the Pocket, The Gut Check, and Reception Perception.
When the data and the non-data advice appear to clash, the place I often go is the Team Stats Page and specifically the Defensive Game Logs. These are my "common sense" tools.
Last week, I recommended Maurile Tremblay's take on Jonathan Stewart despite the data not looking that strong. I used the game logs to look at the context—the type of backs that performed well against the Raiders as well as the state of the offensive lines blocking for them at the time.
I did the same with Vernon Davis this week. The numbers are a great layer of information, the film helps clarify if a player, unit or scheme fits that trend, and the common sense tools help me confirm or reject the match.
When Haseley says "exploit weak matchups" he means in the context of data matching the film and that player offering a clearly compelling alternative to an established starter. When Tuccitto says "dance with you brung ya," the data is meant to have an accurate context.
Common sense tells you that both can be fallible, so look for how they match up or don't and act accordingly. Easy to say, sometimes much hard to do, I know.
Good luck!