Allen Robinson's season has been an inconsistent one so far.
The Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver has accumulated 250 yards and two touchdowns on 11 receptions through three games, but his overall numbers are more glowing than his week-by-week breakdown. Most of Robinson's production came in one game, a Week 2 matchup with what is evidently an awful defense in the shape of the Miami Dolphins.
Robinson caught six passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. In his two other games this season, against the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots, the receiver caught five passes for 85 yards. Included in those games was a one-catch, 27-yard performance against Josh Norman and the Carolina Panthers in Week 1.
Entering his second season at just 22 years of age in a bad situation, this kind of inconsistency shouldn't come as a surprise. Robinson is a talented player, but the hype surrounding his ability and his ability to produce big numbers this season was always too much.
Before even considering the individual talent Robinson possesses, his situation must be evaluated. Robinson is playing with one of the more volatile quarterbacks in the NFL. Blake Bortles hasn't shown much to be excited about during his first 18-or-so games in the NFL. The quarterback is very athletic and has made some impressive plays, but consistently executing an offense and finding his receivers hasn't been a strength.
Plenty of receivers have put up impressive numbers with poor quarterback play and Bortles isn't scared to push the ball downfield. He alone isn't a huge problem, but when you consider the number of weapons he has around him and the general ethos of the offense he becomes a huge problem.
Although Bortles himself may not be very talented, his receivers are an under-appreciated group. Robinson isn't so clearly defined as a number one receiver that he will force Bortles to look his way over Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee and Rashad Greene Sr every week. Hurns in particular has shown off an ability to get open downfield and make impressive receptions, even though his consistency catching the ball could be better.
Tight end Julius Thomas was signed in the offseason to be the team's leading receiver. Thomas may technically be a tight end, but the Jaguars signed him because of his skill set catching the ball. When Thomas returns, Robinson's share of Bortles' passes will undoubtedly go down.
Adding to poor quarterback play and the weapons around him dragging the ball in other directions is a preference to run. The Jaguars may not be able to fully commit to running the ball as often as they would prefer because of game scripts, but that does appear to be their preference. Feeding T.J. Yeldon and Denard Robinson is likely to be the long-term focus of the offense rather than asking Bortles to drop back and sling the ball downfield over and over again.
Each of those factors that directly affect his situation will contribute directly to his week-to-week inconsistency throughout this season. To worsen matters, Robinson also has a significant indirect contribution that needs to be factored in.
Playing in the AFC South typically means you get an easier schedule, but that's not the case for the Jaguars or their receivers.
The Jaguars still have to play the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans twice. The Colts will likely put Vontae Davis on Robinson. The Titans could do the same with Jason McCourty, the cornerback should be fully healthy when the teams match up. The Texans won't need to put anyone on Robinson because they have three quality options to match up to anyone on the Jaguars offense in Johnathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson and Kevin Johnson.
Outside of the division, Robinson will face Stephon Gilmore, Darrelle Revis, Jimmy Smith, Desmond Trufant, Keenan Lewis and Jason Verrett/Brandon Flowers. The only truly easy matchup on his schedule should come in Week 5, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It's hard to project this season as anything more than a frustrating one for Robinson owners. He should still produce decent numbers overall, but his week-to-week performances won't be consistent enough to trust him in your lineup every week. What is more interesting at this point is Robinson's long-term value.
The receiver is likely going to be tied to Blake Bortles during 2016, but it's possible that the Jaguars move on from him before then if they don't match expectations this season.
Even if tied to Bortles, Robinson is still so young that it's important to understand his skill set and how it matches up to his peers. At 22 years of age, it's difficult to be a leading NFL receiver. The position has traditionally been one of the more difficult to transition to out of college football despite the recent success of some notable rookies.
Robinson is a spectacular-catch maker. He has a wide catch radius with the ability to adjust to the ball in the air and fend off contact from smaller receivers while doing so. His footwork down the sideline isn't as good as some other receivers across the league, but it is impressive nonetheless. On this play against the New England Patriots, Robinson is able to fend off a backup cornerback before rising up to pull the ball in as a safety arrives.
It's a very impressive catch from the young receiver.
The concern with Robinson isn't if he can make these plays, it's how consistently he can make them. He doesn't excel at creating separation against man coverage so he has to produce by consistently winning at contested catches. Much like an Anquan Boldin type of receiver. Boldin excelled throughout his career because he could be so consistent against contact, but Robinson lacks the same presence as him.
Against bigger defensive backs, Robinson doesn't show off the power and bulk that is required to command positioning or the soft hands to consistently pull the ball in from awkward body contortions. In this game against the Patriots, he had a couple of opportunities to win at the catch point but couldn't take advantage of them.
On this play, Robinson runs an intermediate crossing route. He draws attention from free safety Devin McCourty as he crosses the field. McCourty and the cornerback trailing Robinson are double-teaming the receiver, but Bortles still attempts to fit the ball into his receiver. Bortles' pass is a bad decision, but he puts the ball in a spot where Robinson should be able to win it.
Robinson's failure on this play was his tentativeness when confronted with McCourty's presence.
He allowed the safety to command the space in front of him and fell to the ground as he attempted to continue through his route. As the ball arrived, Robinson was on his way to the ground with no ability to adjust to or catch the ball. This play may not have been an easy one, but as a bigger receiver who needs to win contested catches, his inability to make any kind of play on the ball was disappointing.
Robinson had one deep shot against man coverage when he rose above the defensive back next to him to make a play on the ball but that defensive back was able to push him out of bounds. How Robinson approached the play wasn't ideal, but it wasn't a major negative either. This play was more significant. On this play, Bortles throws a wobbling pass that doesn't help his receiver but he also doesn't help himself.
The ball is wobbling but it arrives relatively accurately and on time. The issue on the play is Robinson drifts away from the ball at the catch point rather than working back through it after running his comeback route.
By drifting away from the ball, a couple of things happen. Robinson gives cornerback Malcolm Butler space to work past his inside shoulder and break the pass up, but Robinson also brings one of his feet over the sideline. Had the receiver shown more intensity working backwards, Butler wouldn't have had a chance at making a play on the ball and his feet would have been comfortably in bounds. He may have even been able to turn upfield after the catch.
Justin Coleman is a 5'11", 185 lb cornerback who the New England Patriots acquired off of the Seattle Seahawks practice squad. He was making his debut in the NFL against the Jaguars this past week. Coleman is covering Robinson in press-man on this occasion and the receiver struggles somewhat with his physicality. Eventually Robinson pushes off the defensive back at the top of his route and creates separation.
Bortles' pass arrives slightly off target and slightly too fast, but the receiver should have been able to snatch it out of the air.
His recognition skills were slow, leading Robinson to try and pull the ball in with one hand while falling backwards. While this isn't a good play from the quarterback, the throw wasn't so bad that the receiver should be absolved of any criticism. This is the type of play you would expect the better starters in the NFL to make consistently.
The positive side of Robinson's skill set is his ability to create big plays downfield. Six of his 11 receptions this season have gone for 20 or more yards, while two of those went for more than 40 yards. He has 11 20+ yard receptions through his career that spans just 13 games, with four 40+ yard receptions. Robinson is averaging 22.7 yards per reception, but that number may be more of a reflection on the plays he's not making opposed to the ones he is.
Robinson is talented enough that he should be held onto in dynasty leagues and he should continue to have some big games over the course of the season. However, at this point of his career, his reliance on big plays because of his own inconsistency and his situation will make him a frustrating receiver to own. It may be difficult to find a high buyer at this point, but selling him on his name recognition value may be the best route to go in.
Other Thoughts from the Tape
It doesn't look like Jeremy Maclin is ever going to be a viable option for the Kansas City Chiefs. Nobody expected Maclin to put up big numbers with Alex Smith at quarterback, but stockpiling receptions on quick throws underneath and screen plays seemed to be the motivation for his addition. That simply hasn't happened to this point as Smith only really looks to Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce in his offense.
The receiving options in Minnesota continue to put out limited production. Save for Kyle Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater doesn't have a legitimate threat to target downfield. Part of the team's limited production last week was the game script in a blowout victory, but that offense is showing no signs that suggest they could move away from relying heavily on the running game this year.
Sam Bradford is struggling right now, but he's doing a lot of good that suggests he is still adjusting after his two ACL tears. Multiple ACL tears can alter your mentality(unfortunately speaking from experience on this one) when using your feet. It's apparent that Bradford is favoring his left leg when throwing the ball and that is dramatically affecting his accuracy. He still could have put up big numbers against the Jets but a couple of his better throws were dropped downfield.
Ryan Mathews was very impressive running the ball for the Eagles, but he also had a fumbe and two drops. DeMarco Murray should be the primary back again when he is healthy and the Jets game suggests the Eagles understand that they need to run the ball more now. Better late than never.
LeVeon Bell looked outstanding in his return from suspension for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He should remain a productive option despite Ben Roethlisberger's injury. Bell's power and awareness between the tackles and his explosiveness in space makes him an almost unstoppable option in the Steelers offense.