The dynasty waiver wire was relatively barren leading up to Week 11. However, a bevy of injuries and shifting depth charts caused some seismic shifts after this week's carnage. This week's installment looks at critical waiver wire platform players (for contenders and teams building for 2017 alike) and the upcoming 2017 free agent running back crop:
Running Back Carnage
T.J. Yeldon, Giovani Bernard, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, C.J. Prosise, and LeSean McCoy encompass the notable running back injuries from Week 11. Here are my favorite waiver wire moves to parallel the injuries:
If Mike Gillislee (or Chris Ivory) is somehow available on a shallow dynasty waiver wire, they are auto-pickups this week. With a longer range view, Jonathan Williams once again looked outstanding with his sparse touches for Buffalo and projects as a potential three-down NFL back. However, Williams will not get the nod over Gillislee this season based on snap counts thus far. Ivory or T.J. Yeldon are easy starters when the other is out of the lineup and the often dinged up Ivory is now the benefactor with a Yeldon injury. Ivory runs hot, was already getting goal line work, and offers pass-catching chops not often shown in his early-career Saints' days. The deeper pickup in Jacksonville is Denard Robinson as the next man up. While not a true lead back, Robinson could be the last man standing if Ivory were to miss time down the stretch.
Wendell Smallwood saw most of the snaps and work with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles missing a significant chunk of Week 11's game against Seattle. Smallwood is owned in essentially every dynasty league, but Kenjon Barner is available in many leagues and saw a decent amount of passing down snaps and could be more in the Sproles role of the two if the Eagles backfield is a Smallwood-Barner combination any particular week.
The Giovani Bernard torn ACL news came out of left field following the Bengals game. Jeremy Hill is the easy choice to see a boost in value on the top end of the running back depth chart, but dynasty is about the next man up and running backs from off-the-radar to on-the-radar waiver wire pickups. Rex Burkhead has hung around Cincinnati for a number of years without much notice. He had a notable playoff game with a handful of receptions where watchers wondered from the involvement came. Burkhead fits the Bernard role of the backfield reasonably well with a low center of gravity, short-area quickness as his physical profile strength, and strong hands for pass game work. Burkhead has been a watch list player since Terrell Watson moved on this offseason and now is a pickup play with Bernard out for the rest of the year.
C.J .Prosise and Troymaine Pope left Week 11 for the Seahawks. Alex Collins is available in some medium-depth and most shallow dynasty waiver wires as the primary backup behind now high-usage starter Thomas Rawls back in the lineup.
Thinking Ahead
Whether a contender or not, projecting to the offseason and the next season climate is key to maximizing roster spots on the back-end of a dynasty roster. Closing up the 2016 regular season, I will outline the key 2017 NFL free agents at each offensive skill position. Here is a look at the running back position:
Running Backs
- LeVeon Bell
- Christine Michael
- Isaiah Crowell
- Eddie Lacy
- Danny Woodhead
- LeGarrette Blount
- Latavius Murray
- Darren McFadden
- DeAngelo Williams
- Orleans Darkwa
- Andre Ellington
- C.J. Spiller
- Chris Johnson
- Matt Asiata
- Tim Hightower
Spotrac has LeVeon Bell projected at more than $9 million per year for his next deal. How the Steelers (and other teams) approach Bell will hinge on his injuries and his off-field risk factors to-date. My research has shown a running back or wide receiver changing teams, in general, is a bad thing for their fantasy production - at least in their first season with a new team. Bell is in an optimal spot with Pittsburgh, so altering that would be a loss of value on my board.
Michael and Crowell are playing the best ball of their careers - and at the right time as upcoming free agents. Michael has rededicated himself to football just as he was exiting the NFL roster fringe, but is running out of interested teams with a few taking a shot on him in 2015 and already churning through Seattle and now in Green Bay in 2016. Crowell was a top high school recruit and showing his prowess this season on a downright bad Cleveland team. A promising sign for Crowell is showing is two-way skills as a receiver, already being a prototypical power back with enough open field speed for big plays.
Lacy may be the most interesting name on this list. I have always viewed Lacy has only as good (or even not as good) as his situation. The Packers have been an enviable one and Lacy has generally underwhelmed during his rookie contract. As largely a two-down grinder needing high volume or goal line cracks to produce much, Lacy will be an acquired taste in the free agent market and may lose tiebreakers to teams taking a shot in the 2017 NFL Draft.
The older veteran market has some interesting names. LeGarrette Blount is one of the better thumpers in the NFL, but only New England has shown much interest in recent years on short-term deals only. Darren McFadden looked pretty good his last significant action. When healthy, he is still on the committee or better radar. Of course, I doubt an NFL signs him next year with high odds of him being the outright starter Week 1. McFadden fits the criteria of 'keep betting on a high-pedigree option with some production until the NFL completely ignores him' back. Do not count out McFadden the next time he is healthy for a stretch.
Latavius Murray has been eroding thus far in 2016 for his dynasty value. I view him as a No.2/3 in his next situation and could spot start if needed with injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Raiders added minimal competition in 2016 and Murray is still seeing a marginal level of snaps compared to other starters around the league.
Andre Ellington looks healthy and spry once again. His landing spot will be key. Ideally, Ellington could be a 10-12 PPG PPR option in the mold of Chris Thompson if free agency is kind to him. Ellington is one of the more under the radar dynasty stashes heading into the offseason.
In the Ellington mold of this free agent crop is Danny Woodhead. Like LeVeon Bell, Woodhead staying in San Diego is an ideal fit with his strong connection to Philip Rivers.
DeAngelo Williams and Chris Johnson would be more thorns in the side of younger backs than innately valuable on their own in 2017. The wheels are coming off the Williams express, but like a Darren McFadden, you bet on them in a small way until out of the league entirely. Johnson is in a similar boat if he gets healthy and signs in the offseason. C.J. Spiller fits the same mold but looks close to done in terms of chances on an NFL depth chart. Tim Hightower may have the most left in the tank of this veteran quartet with his reduced workload over his career and audition tape he has logged in 2016 as a committee member in New Orleans.