Welcome to Week 7 of The Docket, a weekly column that will highlight rule and policy issues effecting players as well as offer strategy and advice on a select few players that you should be targeting or avoiding.
ON TRIAL
This is where we will highlight pressing issues that will have a major impact on your season.
Defensive Holding/Illegal Contact Penalties – We have been keeping a close eye on the effects of the new Defensive Holding and Illegal Contact rules that were put in place this past off-season. Defensive player’s are no longer allowed to contact a receiver five yards off the line of scrimmage and tugging a players jersey is also no longer allowed.
According to the NFL statistics released late last week, through the first five weeks of the season, there have been nearly four times as many illegal contact penalties as there were through the first five weeks of 2013. Illegal contact penalties increased from 15 calls last year to 59 calls this year. There have also been more than twice as many defensive holding penalties, an increase from 52 last season to 115 this year. In addition to the increase in illegal contact and defensive holding penalties, NFL officials have thrown 14 more offensive pass interference flags, 48 more illegal use of hands flags and seven more flags for taunting or unsportsmanlike conduct.
So how has this affected scoring? It is still tough to say, as the average total points scored per team is exactly the same as it was last season, coming in at around 23.4. Although the ratio of receiving touchdowns to rushing touchdowns has gone up from last year, from 1.9 to 1 to 2.17 to 1. So these new rules seem to be having at least some impact. What does this mean for your fantasy team? It means receivers are gaining value at the expense of running backs. We will continue to monitor this throughout the season.
CASE PENDING
This is where we look at select players who are on the verge of an upgrade or downgrade.
Matt Prater (K, DET) – We discussed Prater last week and I thought it called for another mention since I got reamed for it online. The Lions have now missed ten field goals on the year. That is absolutely horrendous. Matt Prater didn’t help matters by going 1/3 in his first week with the team. But all three of his kicks came on the open end of TCF Bank Stadium, where swirling 17 mph winds appeared to play havoc with the ball. And while he may have missed field goals from 44yds and 50 yds, he also knocked one down from 52 yards out. The team has also expressed confidence in him. The good news is that they are getting a ton of chances and despite all the misses, they are not afraid to try for field goals. The Lion’s play indoors and Prater was also the #1 rated kicker according to PFF last season, going 25/26, including 6/7 on field goals over 50 yards. Rough start, but he is one of the top options to monitor right now.
Shane Vereen (RB, NE) - Stevan Ridley is out for the season, which in theory could be good for Vereen’s value going forward. However, as we have seen in the past, Vereen’s value doesn’t necessarily seem to be tied to Ridley. While listed as a running back, Vereen has earned his living catching passes out of the backfield more than grinding out yards on first and second down. With LeGarrette Blount now in Pittsburgh, there is a chance Vereen sees more early down work, but we will have to wait and see. So far Vereen’s season has been pretty disappointing and if he isn’t receiving targets in the pass game, he may not hold much value. This week will be big to see if we can start trusting him as a viable starting option or not.
Tom Brady (QB, NE) – Speaking of New England, just two weeks ago Brady looked totally worthless for Fantasy. The negative press and poor play has certainly motivated Brady to step up his game. The coaching staff also seems to have realized that they need to put him in a position to succeed by switching up the personnel and calling plays out of different formations. Brandon LaFell and Tim Wright have both stepped up and Rob Gronkowski has started to really round into form. It is still a bit too early to tell how Stevan Ridley’s injury will affect this offense, but it may actually help Brady as they have to air it out more. Conversely, without an adequate run game, he could also find himself being blitzed like crazy. But the last two weeks, he’s averaging 29 fantasy points, so there is a chance Brady has worked his way back into the circle of trust.
THOUGHTS FROM THE BENCH
Here is where we highlight situations or strategies that are worth monitoring.
Injuries – This column has been banging the drums on this all year. Handcuff your RBs and don’t drop or trade away depth at other positions unless it is to upgrade your team substantially. Players have been dropping like flies. AJ Green goes out, we’ll hello Sanu. Moreno done for the year? Well it’s good you didn’t trade away Lamar Miller, he’s now a RB2 with upside. Take stock of your team and make sure to work the waiver wire and trade with other teams. This years season is not going to be won on your draft alone.
Draft – Speaking of the draft. Essentially the consensus Top 12 in PPR leagues looked something like this in the preseason:
1) LeSean McCoy
4) Matt Forte
5) Eddie Lacy
8) Jimmy Graham
9) Dez Bryant
10) A.J. Green
11) Monte Ball
12) Doug Martin/Brandon Marshall
Right now the top RBs in ppr leagues, depending on your scoring system, are DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell, Arian Foster, Giovani Bernard, Marshawn Lynch, Antone Smith, Justin Forsett and Ahmad Bradshaw. The top WRs are Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, Mohamed Sanu, etc … and the Top 5 TEs are Julius Thomas, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates, and Delanie Walker.
Wait, what? Antone Smith? Did you just say Jimmy Graham is outside of the top 5? No Gronk? Ahmad Bradshaw? Mohamed Sanu! Really?
So no McCoy, no Charles, no Peterson, no Lacy, no Ball, no Graham, no Calvin … in fact, of the Top 30 players this year, only three of those listed in the pre-season consensus top 12 (Forte, Bryant and Thomas) are in there. So don’t feel bad if your team isn’t performing as expected. But that is no reason to pack it in either. Get our there and make bold moves. There is no reason to play for second place.