Dynasty Trade Value Chart: Week 4

Photo: USA Today Sports

The values listed below in the dynasty trade value chart are based upon two factors:

1. Quantifying each player's 2014 value from Week 4 through Week 17. The primary tool used is the terrific Top 200 Forward by Bob Henry which provides scoring projections and value calculations. 

2. Quantifying each player's value in 2015 and beyond. The task of quantifying player's future value beyond this season is a much tougher task, but with some reasonable assumptions and a careful analysis of the player's talent level, situation, contractual status and other factors can be successfully accomplished. The specific methodology is laid out in detail in the article accompanying the preseason Trade Value Chart.

Trade Guide

The primary purpose of the trade value chart is to provide a useful guide in determining whether to accept or reject trade offers in your dynasty league. While one must consider specific team needs to decide whether a trade is beneficial to their specific roster, the trade values listed below should provide a context to decide who is winning the trade in terms of overall value.

Ideally, you want to win the majority of the trades you make by receiving more value than you give up based upon the numbers listed below. Another great option is to design "win-win" trades in which both sides are receiving essentially equal value that allows both teams to improve their lineups now or in the future. Occasionally, you may have to make a trade in which you knowingly receive the losing end of the bargain. Perhaps you have to overpay to fix a glaring hole at a need position. 

As a trade guide, the value chart below is especially helpful in making multi-player trades. Any of the dozens of dynasty rankings available online are perfectly adequate in a simple 1-for-1 trade because fairness can be easily determined by comparing the relative rankings of the two players involved. However, what if you want to pick two players from your roster to offer in trade for Jimmy Graham? Here, simple rankings are inadequate. What is a fair trade offer for a top dynasty player like Graham? Is it two top 20 players? One top 20 player and one top 50 player? Two top 30 players? Using the numbers below, it is easy to quickly determine which two players would be an overpayment for Graham vs. which two would be a fair offer for Graham.

 Dynasty Rankings and Determining Tiers

The secondary purpose of the dynasty trade value chart listed below is to really deeply examine the assumptions that underpin dynasty rankings to figure out which players are being overvalued and undervalued by the consensus dynasty rankings. Before doing all the calculations and detailed projections to put together the updated value chart, I had done an update on my dynasty rankings here on Footballguys.com. The major takeaway was that while many of my rankings (and the general consensus rankings) ended up being justified by the numbers, there were a number of players that simply were ranked too high or too low when really getting down to the cold hard numbers. 

The numbers no longer support LeSean McCoy as the top dynasty RB, nor Demaryius Thomas as a top five dynasty WR, nor Aaron Rodgers as a top two QB. These takeaways and more are discussed in some detail below, but let's first take a look at the full chart.

The 100 Most Valuable Players

The chart below lists in order the top 100 dynasty players (assuming a 12 team PPR league with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 Flex).

 A Few Surprising Outcomes

One of the biggest benefits to doing this type of analysis is that it challenges underlying assumptions and often allows a more clear vision at the end of the process. Here are a few of my biggest takeaways from putting together this list:

1. The top 4 players are all very close in value. In terms of running the numbers, the order of the top four can change based upon minor tweaks to the projections and thus it will end up coming down to personal preference to some extent. In terms of the tie-breaking factors, A.J. Green simply has the least potential negatives. He has shown consistent production, an ability to stay healthy, a static situation and sterling character that makes him the safest bet for elite fantasy production over the long term. Dez Bryant has shown more maturity as he has aged but questions about his long term situation and the QB play in Dallas knock him down a little bit. Jimmy Graham and Julio Jones have battled injuries throughout their careers and have yet to complete a fully healthy season. Their upside is immense, but the injury histories serve as a separating factor to knock them to 3rd and 4th in value. Calvin Johnson and the top RBs all fall just below the super elite tier. Calvin's age limites his long term value just a little bit, though not enough to knock him from the top 5. The short shelf-life of RBs adds inherent risk to young stars like Le'Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard that is not present with the top WRs and keeps them in the 2nd tier.

2. There has been a changing of the guard at the top of the RB rankings. As the value chart indicates, both Le'Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard have inched past LeSean McCoy in terms of long-term dynasty value. The change was spurred by two primary factors. First, LeSean McCoy is not as involved in the passing game as he was prior to the arrival of Darren Sproles and thus his projections for 2014 have been lowered just a little bit. Second, the outstanding play of Bernard and Bell through the first three weeks has raised each player's short term projections enough to narrow the gap with McCoy over the next two seasons. Wiping out McCoy's projected statistical advantage in the present allows Bell and Bernard to pass McCoy (and Charles) due to their youth and rosy long-term outlooks.

3. Antonio Brown has shown that 2013 was not a fluke and there is a place near the top of the rankings for smaller WRs. Brown's 2013 season was so exceptional compared to his prior efforts that it was easy to write it off as a bit of an outlier with regression factored into his 2014 and beyond projections. Through three weeks, Brown has exceeded expectations and actually looks to be building upon his 2013 season with the potential to put up even bigger numbers in 2014. There is a bit of a bias against smaller WRs in dynasty rankings. History has mostly justified this skepticism when it comes to smaller WRs. However, the new rules and the preponderance of spread offenses in today's NFL has made it easier for the small guys to regularly reach the endzone and put up similar numbers to the prototypical star WRs. The presence of Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin in the overall top 25 is further proof that small WRs can have huge value.

4. The rookie WR class is pretty exceptional. It is incredibly difficult to accurately quantify the value of rookies three games into their NFL careers. It is clear though that many of the 2014 rookie class of WRs deserve to rank in the top 100 already. Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Brandin Cooks have each shown to be players with immediate fantasy value that should find their way into starting lineups in 2014. Each of the three has an incredibly bright future and could easily find themselves in the discussion for the top 10 overall this offseason. Their current rankings reflect that optimism and elite upside. Mike Evans has started more slowly, but is still a player who is very young and very talented. His upside cannot be denied and he could see his value really leap if Tampa is able to land an elite young QB in the 2015 draft (or if Mike Glennon excels). Beyond the "Big 4" of the rookie WRs lurk a number of talented players who could easily enter the top 30 overall in the near future. Jordan Matthews, Odell Beckham, Jr., DaVante Adams, Cody Latimer, Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Donte Moncrief all stand out due to a combination of talent and potentially strong situations. Owners should try to roster as many of these young WRs as possible. Not all of them will hit, but the next "changing of the guard" at the top could come in the next few years as this talented group of rookie WRs establish themselves amongst the best in the NFL.