Now that we are closer to the end of the season than we are to the beginning, now feels like an appropriate time to take a look back at some rookie evaluations Reception Perception held coming into the season. We’ll refer back to the data logged on the 2016 NFL Draft Prospects this offseason and see who is matching or going off course of the potential projections Reception Perception may have had for them.
This is Part 2 of this rookie review, where we will look back at the last 10 of the 21 charted prospects in alphabetical order. Make sure to review Part 1 of the series where we looked at the first 11 rookies.
Malcolm Mitchell, New England Patriots
One of Reception Perceptions favorite sons, Mitchell looked like he was gaining momentum with a strong preseason debut. However, some injuries slowed him down and he never truly grabbed a role. Mitchell has played more than 40 percent of the snaps just twice this year and collected more than 30 yards in a game just once (Week 1).
While it has not been much of a productive year for Mitchell, there is some hope that in the future he will garner a bigger role. Chris Hogan has been a streaky producer as the isolated X-receiver, and doesn’t look like the type of player who could hold off a surging Mitchell down the line. Tom Brady’s pristine play despite his age and Jimmy Garoppolo’s strong outings in relief of the suspended starter brings plenty of hope to the New England quarterback position when Mitchell’s time comes.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
No rookie receiver has been better this year than Michael Thomas in New Orleans. Heading into Week 11, Thomas led the Saints in targets and catches, carrying a 73.9 percent catch rate. While he started off the year primarily running crossing routes exclusively, he started to get more downfield targets as the year wore on.
Reception Perception has long told that Brandin Cooks is a hyper-specific role player and not a true No. 1. That looks to have held up this year as Thomas passed him in the rotation with relative ease. Michael Thomas has the look of an asset who will help his team in a variety of ways for years to come.
Mike Thomas, Los Angeles Rams
There was one game this season where Mike Thomas recorded three catches for 62 yards against the Bills, but didn’t record a stat in any other contest. Thomas is not needed this season with Kenny Britt and even Brian Quick showing well as outside receivers. If Quick moves on in free agency this offseason Thomas would get a shot to take his role as the deep threat in this passing game.
Pharoh Cooper, Los Angeles Rams
The higher drafted Cooper has done even less this year than his rookie counterpart Mike Thomas. Cooper only has two catches for nine yards on the season. He struggled with injuries in the beginning of the year and failed to garner any momentum after that. He’s been inactive for at least one contest on a coach’s decision.
Reception Perception did not like Cooper as a down-to-down wide receiver threat. He had the lowest success rate vs. man coverage score (52 percent) of any receiver charted in the 2016 draft. It’s hard to imagine him developing into anything more than a rotational slot receiver. The team already paid Tavon Austin to occupy something similar to that role.
Rahsard Higgins, Cleveland Browns
With the emergence of Terrelle Pryor into a force at the position, the Browns turned out not to need much from their rookie class of receivers. Higgins has not been on the field much, as he’s played on 25 percent or more of the team snaps in just one game this season. Higgins fell behind fellow rookie Ricardo Louis in the rotation for a while, but the latter made a ton of mistakes when in the lineup. Higgins was a Reception Perception favorite, but has a long road to travel to find relevancy.
Roger Lewis, New York Giants
Nothing in Lewis’ Reception Perception portfolio stood out, other than the obscene amount of curl routes he ran (over 40 percent of his total routes). Yet, he made the Giants as an undrafted free agent and has already flashed at times. Lewis has only four catches on the year, but two have gone for touchdowns. He has something of a knack for the big plays, despite not registering an above average success rate on vertical routes. With Victor Cruz failing to sustain the momentum he had earlier in the season, Lewis is worth tracking the rest of 2016 and into next year.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants
Probably Reception Perception’s favorite receiver, after far and away leading in success rate vs. man and press coverage metrics, Shepard has been about as expected in his rookie season. He had several productive games in September and is re-emerging in November. Shepard has been a slot receiver for the vast majority of his snaps as a pro, and the Giants run more three-wide sets than the majority of NFL teams. The only part of Shepard’s season so far is that the Giants offense and Eli Manning have not played up to expectations. At this point it is common knowledge that slot receivers of Shepard’s ilk fall by the wayside in this situations. However, to this point, when the offense has been on, so has Shepard.
Tajae Sharpe, Tennessee Titans
A preseason darling, the real games weren’t so kind to Sharpe. To be fair, the Titans asked way too much of this fifth-round rookie despite his strong summer. At the beginning of the year Sharpe was exclusively lining up as the Titans isolated X-receiver and often drew the opposing top corner. That proved to be far too much meat on his plate to kick off his career. He only went over 70 yards receiving once (Week 1) and finally scored his first touchdown last week. Sharpe started losing snaps to Rishard Matthews and Kendall Wright, and it was no coincidence the Titans passing offense started to find its groove.
Don’t be so quick to give up on Sharpe going forward, however. With less on his docket, he might be able to spend more time developing as pro then carrying No. 1 receiver duties. With the team sounding unwilling to commit to Wright as more than a bit player, Sharpe should have a bright future he
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
Boyd was the player that Reception Perception was much lower on than the consensus. His success rate vs. coverage scores were poor and his 50 percent contested catch conversion rate wasn’t enough to offset that. His supporters pointed to an adjusted role in 2015 at Pittsburgh likely skewing his results, but his route tree chart showed he ran plenty of traditional patterns. Reception Perception did not see a future star, rather long-time solid NFL contributor.
Obviously we have a long way to go in Boyd’ NFL career, but that evaluation is similar to what he’s offered this year. Boyd has been on the field for 60 percent or more of the team’s snaps in all but three games this year, but only has two games with more than 40 yards. His play has been acceptable for what they’ve asked of him as a low-volume slot receiver, but he’s yet to do anything to command more volume. I always thought this landing spot was overrated, as he’s clearly stuck behind two target hogs in A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, even if his does climb the ladder as an individual player in the pecking order.
Will Fuller, Houston Texans
Reception Perception was lukewarm on Fuller. His trump cards were clear with an above average success rate on vertical routes, strong after the catch numbers and more than solid numbers when facing straight man and zone coverage. However, he had a subpar contested catch conversion rate and posted the lowest success rate vs. coverage when facing press. He was a screaming “both sides of the coin” type of prospect.
So far this year, that’s exactly what he’s done. At the beginning of the season Fuller ripped it up with 323 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his first four games. However, he’s barely been on the radar of late with just 49 yards since. To be fair, Fuller has not been healthy since, sitting out multiple weeks and leaving games early with injuries. It’s clear Fuller is going to be some type of success at the NFL level, but his quarterback play is an issue, and even when he was on he was an up-and-down player. In his four-game stretch to start the year Fuller had just one game with catch rate over 60 percent, and two games in the 46 to 41 percent range.