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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 16

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 16
By Will Grant, December 21, 2017

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 16
Photo: USA Today Sports

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 19 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Missed it by *that* much. Matt Bitonti put on a clinic last week and missed the ever-elusive 'Answer Key' entry by just 1 little point. The Seahawk-Rams game was the lowest confidence game of the week and Bitonti just happened to come down on the wrong side of it. Nice job Matt! Bear Heiser and Jason Wood both deserve shout-outs as well for posting 132 points or more as well. Any other week and those scores would be good enough for an easy victory. Interesting that of the top 3 finishers, they all missed on different games. Well done guys. 

Staffer DEN CHI LAC NYJ HOU PHI MIA BAL CIN ARI GB LAR NE TEN DAL ATL TOT
IND DET KC NO JAC NYG BUF CLE MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF OAK TB Pts
Bitonti DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA NE SF DAL ATL 135
  4 12 11 15 14 8 3 13 16 7 6 1 2 10 5 9  
Heiser DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR LAR PIT SF DAL ATL 133
  6 15 1 16 14 12 10 9 8 7 4 3 2 11 13 5  
Wood IND DET KC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN WAS CAR LAR NE SF DAL ATL 132
  1 4 7 16 11 6 3 13 15 5 8 9 10 2 12 14  
Haseley DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF DAL ATL 127
  11 9 3 16 15 12 2 6 14 10 8 4 5 1 13 7  
Garda DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA NE TEN DAL ATL 125
  5 7 4 16 12 8 10 13 14 3 2 1 11 6 9 15  
Miglio IND DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF OAK ATL 123
  6 12 8 16 15 14 5 13 11 7 10 4 1 3 2 9  
Grant DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF DAL ATL 123
  5 7 2 16 15 11 6 12 14 9 10 3 8 1 4 13  
Mamula IND DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB SEA NE SF DAL ATL 121
  1 11 2 16 14 10 8 13 15 4 5 7 9 6 3 12  
Feery IND DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB LAR NE SF DAL ATL 120
  3 8 11 15 12 14 7 13 16 4 2 1 10 5 6 9  
Tuccitto DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT TEN DAL ATL 117
  2 14 7 12 11 10 3 15 16 13 9 8 5 6 1 4  
Holloway DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN ARI GB LAR NE TEN DAL ATL 115
  9 13 6 16 14 10 5 12 15 2 1 4 3 7 8 11  
Roberts DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN WAS GB LAR PIT TEN DAL ATL 115
  7 12 4 16 15 11 9 13 14 8 2 3 5 1 6 10  
Wimer DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB LAR PIT TEN OAK ATL 114
  10 9 8 15 14 12 7 13 6 5 16 4 3 2 1 11  
Brimacombe DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN WAS GB LAR PIT SF OAK ATL 114
  1 11 2 16 15 12 3 13 14 9 7 5 6 8 4 10  
Hicks IND DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT TEN OAK ATL 110
  11 12 10 14 13 9 2 16 15 7 8 6 5 1 3 4  
Larkin DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN ARI CAR SEA NE SF DAL TB 110
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Pasquino DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN ARI GB SEA NE TEN DAL ATL 110
  1 13 8 16 14 10 3 2 15 4 7 9 11 6 5 12  
Knotts IND DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB SEA NE TEN OAK ATL 106
  5 4 3 16 11 12 8 14 15 9 1 6 10 13 2 7  
Away DEN CHI LAC NYJ HOU PHI MIA BAL CIN ARI GB LAR NE TEN DAL ATL  
Total Pts 77 0 49 0 0 192 20 212 0 13 41 29 70 42 87 162  
Home IND DET KC NO JAC NYG BUF CLE MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF OAK TB  
Total Pts 27 188 62 276 241 0 84 0 241 107 71 54 40 50 12 1  
Tot Conf Pts 104 188 111 276 241 192 104 212 241 120 112 83 110 92 99 163  

Seattle turned out to be the only 'upset' of the week, and for each contest, the team with the most confidence points took home the win. That made for some serious scoring this week and the lowest score this week  (106) was good enough to beat the highest score from Week 14 (Brimacombe with 105). 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Brimacombe's lead narrowed a bit, but he still has a commanding 34 point lead going into the final two weeks of the season. It's going to be tough for anyone to catch him at this point. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Brimacombe 85 112 77 79 81 56 108 84 55 99 70 115 97 105 114     1337
Grant 88 117 80 81 70 42 94 87 56 97 70 122 104 72 123     1303
Haseley 85 111 86 89 55 48 92 86 50 91 75 104 108 86 127     1293
Mamula 81 113 66 80 64 53 96 81 59 83 79 120 115 79 121     1290
Miglio 72 99 67 84 62 43 100 82 66 98 69 113 120 86 123     1284
Roberts 90 112 67 86 69 47 110 81 54 88 68 117 105 63 115     1272
Knotts 88 110 70 75 67 50 100 83 48 94 87 118 106 65 106     1267
Tuccitto 86 104 74 83 66 44 96 78 43 95 76 99 116 86 117     1263
Bitonti 78 105 73 85 56 41 94 87 56 86 70 113 103 69 135     1251
Holloway 93 112 55 80 64 45 103 81 49 70 67 117 119 70 115     1240
Wimer 78 101 63 80 80 45 66 76 48 87 86 117 113 82 114     1236
Feery 79 111 58 87 57 51 80 84 63 85 76 112 105 59 120     1227
Garda 85 111 67 73 65 32 79 75 54 90 71 116 113 63 125     1219
Larkin 82 100 65 74 49 50 94 85 54 74 75 107 117 71 110     1207
Wood 102 90 81 65 49 27 96 84 52 88 59 104 98 76 132     1203
Hicks 71 97 85 87 28 48 94 77 57 72 57 121 108 89 110     1201
Pasquino 66 100 77 88 59 36 85 79 51 99 72 103 109 58 110     1192
Heiser 42 89 81 79 54 42 93 75 52 78 69 97 110 83 133     1177

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer IND MIN DET LAR DEN ATL CLE BUF MIA LAC TB JAC NYG SEA PIT OAK MNF
BAL GB CIN TEN WAS NO CHI NE KC NYJ CAR SF ARI DAL HOU PHI TOT
Miglio BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC NYJ CAR SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 49
  16 9 12 11 6 8 7 14 10 2 15 1 3 4 13 5  
Garda BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 45
  15 14 3 13 11 10 9 12 2 7 16 6 4 5 1 8  
Hicks BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 61
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Heiser BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR SF NYG DAL PIT PHI 54
  16 15 13 14 12 8 7 11 4 2 6 9 5 1 10 3  
Feery BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CLE BUF KC LAC CAR JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 49
  13 11 6 9 7 10 2 3 12 8 16 5 4 1 15 14  
Tuccitto BAL GB CIN TEN DEN ATL CHI NE KC NYJ CAR JAC NYG SEA PIT PHI 49
  9 2 4 8 6 7 13 10 12 5 14 15 3 1 16 11  
Larkin BAL MIN DET LAR WAS ATL CHI NE KC LAC CAR SF NYG SEA PIT PHI 52
  11 13 9 10 8 6 5 14 4 3 15 7 2 1 12 16  
Knotts BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 44
  16 11 10 9 15 14 13 12 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Brimacombe BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 47
  16 6 9 12 5 1 4 14 8 11 13 7 3 2 15 10  
Wood BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC NYG SEA PIT PHI 51
  7 13 3 15 2 10 1 14 9 4 8 6 5 12 11 16  
Haseley BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 47
  15 14 12 5 7 6 10 9 8 3 16 4 2 1 11 13  
Pasquino BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 48
  13 12 8 7 1 4 5 16 14 9 15 3 2 6 10 11  
Mamula BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 47
  14 15 12 5 1 6 8 16 4 7 11 9 2 3 10 13  
Roberts BAL MIN DET TEN WAS NO CLE NE KC LAC CAR SF NYG SEA PIT PHI 42
  16 7 8 2 6 9 3 13 11 10 15 1 5 4 14 12  
Wimer BAL MIN DET LAR WAS ATL CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 52
  11 10 9 8 7 15 6 13 12 5 14 4 3 2 15 1  
Bitonti BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 52
  10 4 14 9 8 7 6 13 12 1 11 5 3 2 16 15  
Holloway BAL MIN DET LAR DEN ATL CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 49
  13 7 9 10 1 2 8 12 11 5 14 6 3 4 15 16  
Grant BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 48
  14 6 7 10 2 3 9 11 16 8 15 5 4 1 13 12  
Away IND MIN DET LAR DEN ATL CLE BUF MIA LAC TB JAC NYG SEA PIT OAK  
Total Pts 0 182 158 160 7 30 5 3 0 97 0 85 29 18 201 0  
Home BAL GB CIN TEN WAS NO CHI NE KC NYJ CAR SF ARI DAL HOU PHI  
Total Pts 241 2 4 10 110 107 121 213 165 7 226 18 32 38 0 178  
Tot Conf Pts 241 184 162 170 117 137 126 216 165 104 226 103 61 56 201 178  

HEAVY FAVORITES

This week Vegas gave us a lot of game with more than a 7 point spread, which means a LOT of teams will be in the heavy favorite category this week. Baltimore, KC, Carolina, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia were all unanimous choices by the entire staff while Minnesota, Detroit, The Rams, Washington, Chicago, New England, and the Chargers were all heavy favorites in their respective contests. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Seattle at Dallas was the least confident game of the week, with the Cowboys getting a slight nod in points. The Giants at the Cardinals was the toughest game of the week to pick with it essentially being a 'pick 'em' given the low overall confidence total and the three point margin of victory for Arizona. 

ODDS AND ENDS

With two weeks to go and so many 'heavy favorites', you are going to need to take a little risk if you want to move up this week. Consider moving some of the lower confidence games to the top of your list and sliding the heavy favorites down a peg or two. You could also go for broke and put a couple points on one of the underdogs, since there will most likely be an upset or two given how many favorites there are. Beware though because guessing wrong at this point really dooms your chances in the overall rankings. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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