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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 15

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 15
By Will Grant, December 14, 2017

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 15
Photo: USA Today Sports

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 19 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Jame Brimacombe showed why he belongs at the top of the leaderboard. After finishing last in week 14, Brimacombe crushed the field for his 3rd weekly win this week posting an impressive 105 points with 14 correct picks. The next closest team had just 89 and the closest number of picks were 11. Brimacombe dominated the field in a week when many owners stumbled. Nice work!

Staffer NO MIN CHI GB SF DAL DET OAK IND NYJ TEN WAS SEA PHI BAL NE TOT
  ATL CAR CIN CLE HOU NYG TB KC BUF DEN ARI LAC JAC LAR PIT MIA Pts
Brimacombe ATL CAR CIN GB SF DAL DET KC BUF DEN ARI LAC JAC PHI PIT NE 105
  5 4 15 12 6 9 1 11 8 3 2 14 10 7 13 16  
Hicks ATL CAR CIN GB HOU NYG TB KC BUF DEN ARI LAC JAC LAR PIT NE 89
  14 6 13 1 2 8 3 4 11 5 7 16 15 12 10 9  
Tuccitto ATL MIN CIN GB HOU DAL TB KC BUF DEN TEN LAC JAC LAR PIT NE 86
  1 3 11 13 16 7 4 14 15 8 5 12 6 2 10 9  
Miglio ATL CAR CIN GB HOU DAL TB KC BUF DEN ARI LAC JAC LAR PIT NE 86
  7 6 15 14 9 13 2 5 10 3 1 11 4 8 12 16  
Haseley NO MIN CHI GB SF DAL DET KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC JAC PHI PIT NE 86
  15 14 12 13 10 11 5 9 4 3 2 7 1 6 8 16  
Heiser NO CAR CIN GB SF DAL DET KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA LAR PIT NE 83
  3 1 15 11 10 13 6 12 9 4 8 7 5 2 14 16  
Wimer ATL MIN CIN GB HOU DAL DET KC BUF NYJ ARI LAC JAC LAR PIT NE 82
  15 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 14 3 13 2 1 16  
Mamula NO MIN CIN GB SF NYG DET KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC JAC PHI PIT NE 79
  11 6 12 13 1 2 10 4 14 3 7 15 5 9 8 16  
Wood NO CAR CHI GB SF DAL TB KC IND NYJ TEN LAC SEA PHI PIT NE 76
  13 5 2 12 3 11 4 9 1 6 7 8 14 16 10 15  
Grant ATL MIN CIN GB HOU DAL DET KC BUF DEN TEN LAC SEA LAR PIT NE 72
  2 8 15 14 12 10 5 7 11 1 6 13 4 3 9 16  
Larkin NO CAR CIN GB SF NYG TB KC IND NYJ ARI LAC JAC PHI BAL NE 71
  12 10 14 13 9 3 8 6 7 5 4 16 11 2 1 15  
Holloway NO MIN CIN GB HOU DAL DET KC BUF NYJ ARI LAC SEA LAR PIT NE 70
  5 7 15 12 11 8 4 6 16 9 1 13 3 2 10 14  
Bitonti NO MIN CIN GB SF DAL TB KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA LAR PIT NE 69
  7 8 12 16 3 15 4 6 5 10 9 13 2 1 11 14  
Knotts NO MIN CIN CLE SF DAL DET OAK BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA LAR PIT NE 65
  10 5 16 3 4 15 9 8 14 7 6 11 2 1 12 13  
Roberts NO MIN CIN GB SF DAL DET KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA LAR PIT NE 63
  7 11 15 4 1 12 5 8 6 9 10 14 2 3 13 16  
Garda NO MIN CIN GB HOU DAL TB KC BUF NYJ TEN LAC JAC LAR PIT NE 63
  3 13 12 14 11 9 4 6 8 7 5 10 1 2 15 16  
Feery NO MIN CIN GB SF NYG DET OAK BUF NYJ TEN LAC SEA PHI PIT NE 59
  9 13 3 8 5 12 4 1 11 10 6 14 7 2 15 16  
Pasquino NO MIN CHI CLE HOU NYG DET OAK BUF NYJ ARI LAC SEA PHI PIT NE 58
  5 8 3 1 10 12 7 2 9 11 6 15 13 4 14 16  
Away NO MIN CHI GB SF DAL DET OAK IND NYJ TEN WAS SEA PHI BAL NE  
Total Pts 100 108 17 180 52 141 63 11 8 88 71 0 52 46 1 265  
Home ATL CAR CIN CLE HOU NYG TB KC BUF DEN ARI LAC JAC LAR PIT MIA  
Total Pts 44 32 194 4 80 37 29 113 156 20 35 212 66 38 185 0  
Tot Conf Pts 144 140 211 184 132 178 92 124 164 108 106 212 118 84 186 265  

The New England loss on Monday night was the biggest upset of the weekend, taking down everyone and 265 total confidence points. The Patriot loss punctuated a week that started badly with the Saints, Vikings and Bengals all taking down over 100 confidence points with upset losses to start the weekened. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Here are the overall rankings with just 3 weeks to go. Brimacombe's big win this week pushed him out to a commanding 43 points with just three weeks to go. While no lead is safe in this type of format, it's going to take some serious picking to catch him at this point. The next six teams behind him are separated by just 23 points total, so there will certainly be a lot of movement in this tier over the next few weeks. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Brimacombe 85 112 77 79 81 56 108 84 55 99 70 115 97 105       1223
Grant 88 117 80 81 70 42 94 87 56 97 70 122 104 72       1180
Mamula 81 113 66 80 64 53 96 81 59 83 79 120 115 79       1169
Haseley 85 111 86 89 55 48 92 86 50 91 75 104 108 86       1166
Knotts 88 110 70 75 67 50 100 83 48 94 87 118 106 65       1161
Miglio 72 99 67 84 62 43 100 82 66 98 69 113 120 86       1161
Roberts 90 112 67 86 69 47 110 81 54 88 68 117 105 63       1157
Tuccitto 86 104 74 83 66 44 96 78 43 95 76 99 116 86       1146
Holloway 93 112 55 80 64 45 103 81 49 70 67 117 119 70       1125
Wimer 78 101 63 80 80 45 66 76 48 87 86 117 113 82       1122
Bitonti 78 105 73 85 56 41 94 87 56 86 70 113 103 69       1116
Feery 79 111 58 87 57 51 80 84 63 85 76 112 105 59       1107
Larkin 82 100 65 74 49 50 94 85 54 74 75 107 117 71       1097
Garda 85 111 67 73 65 32 79 75 54 90 71 116 113 63       1094
Hicks 71 97 85 87 28 48 94 77 57 72 57 121 108 89       1091
Pasquino 66 100 77 88 59 36 85 79 51 99 72 103 109 58       1082
Wood 102 90 81 65 49 27 96 84 52 88 59 104 98 76       1071
Heiser 42 89 81 79 54 42 93 75 52 78 69 97 110 83       1044

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer DEN CHI LAC NYJ HOU PHI MIA BAL CIN ARI GB LAR NE TEN DAL ATL MNF TOT
  IND DET KC NO JAC NYG BUF CLE MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF OAK TB TOTAL Pts
Miglio IND DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF OAK ATL 54 136
  6 12 8 16 15 14 5 13 11 7 10 4 1 3 2 9    
Garda DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA NE TEN DAL ATL 50 136
  5 7 4 16 12 8 10 13 14 3 2 1 11 6 9 15    
Hicks IND DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT TEN OAK ATL 71 136
  11 12 10 14 13 9 2 16 15 7 8 6 5 1 3 4    
Heiser DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR LAR PIT SF DAL ATL 48 136
  6 15 1 16 14 12 10 9 8 7 4 3 2 11 13 5    
Feery IND DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB LAR NE SF DAL ATL 45 136
  3 8 11 15 12 14 7 13 16 4 2 1 10 5 6 9    
Tuccitto DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT TEN DAL ATL 49 136
  2 14 7 12 11 10 3 15 16 13 9 8 5 6 1 4    
Larkin DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN ARI CAR SEA NE SF DAL TB 41 136
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Knotts IND DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB SEA NE TEN OAK ATL 44 136
  5 4 3 16 11 12 8 14 15 9 1 6 10 13 2 7    
Brimacombe DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN WAS GB LAR PIT SF OAK ATL 47 136
  1 11 2 16 15 12 3 13 14 9 7 5 6 8 4 10    
Wood IND DET KC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN WAS CAR LAR NE SF DAL ATL 44 136
  1 4 7 16 11 6 3 13 15 5 8 9 10 2 12 14    
Haseley DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF DAL ATL 44 136
  11 9 3 16 15 12 2 6 14 10 8 4 5 1 13 7    
Pasquino DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN ARI GB SEA NE TEN DAL ATL 48 136
  1 13 8 16 14 10 3 2 15 4 7 9 11 6 5 12    
Mamula IND DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB SEA NE SF DAL ATL 55 136
  1 11 2 16 14 10 8 13 15 4 5 7 9 6 3 12    
Roberts DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN WAS GB LAR PIT TEN DAL ATL 49 136
  7 12 4 16 15 11 9 13 14 8 2 3 5 1 6 10    
Wimer DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS GB LAR PIT TEN OAK ATL 63 136
  10 9 8 15 14 12 7 13 6 5 16 4 3 2 1 11    
Bitonti DEN DET KC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA NE SF DAL ATL 50 136
  4 12 11 15 14 8 3 13 16 7 6 1 2 10 5 9    
Holloway DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI MIA BAL MIN ARI GB LAR NE TEN DAL ATL 39 136
  9 13 6 16 14 10 5 12 15 2 1 4 3 7 8 11    
Grant DEN DET LAC NO JAC PHI BUF BAL MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF DAL ATL 47 136
  5 7 2 16 15 11 6 12 14 9 10 3 8 1 4 13    
Away DEN CHI LAC NYJ HOU PHI MIA BAL CIN ARI GB LAR NE TEN DAL ATL    
Total Pts 77 0 49 0 0 192 20 212 0 13 41 29 70 42 87 162    
Home IND DET KC NO JAC NYG BUF CLE MIN WAS CAR SEA PIT SF OAK TB    
Total Pts 27 188 62 276 241 0 84 0 241 107 71 54 40 50 12 1    
Tot Conf Pts 104 188 111 276 241 192 104 212 241 120 112 83 110 92 99 163    

HEAVY FAVORITES

This week sees the return to quite a few heavy favorites with Detroit, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Minnesota all being unanimous choices by everyone on staff. The Saints, Vikings and Jaguars are the darlings of that group with both having more than 240 confidence points each. Larkin was the only staffer to pick Tampa Bay on Monday night, and he only put a point on them, making the Falcons a heavy favorite to win this week as well. 

DUAL SUPPORT

This week most of the games have a 'clear' favorite to win or lose but a couple are really close enough to go either way. Tennessee at San Francisco is essentially a pick'em for the board with SF receiving just eight more confidence points in one of the lowest confidence games of the week. The Rams at the Seahawks represented the lowest confidence game of the week with just 83 total points, and the home Seahawks are a slight favorite to win according to the Footballguys.com staff. The Broncos and the Bills are both expected to win their respective matchups against the Colts and the Dolphins but with just 104 confidence points total for each game, no one feels very strongly about these picks. The Chargers at the Chiefs should also be a good game with both teams having a good chunk of the staff picking them to win. 

ODDS AND ENDS

Three weeks to go. If you're in the hunt for the overall title, it's time to decide just how much risk you're willing to take. Low confidence games are a sneaky way to steal a few points but if you need to make a big move, you might consider going against the grain in a game like New England at Pittsburgh where the Patriots are a three-point favorite, but are on the road after a Monday night loss. Putting a couple extra points on Pittsburgh while the majority pick the Patriots could lead to you making up some serious ground if the Steelers pull out the win. Putting a couple extra points on the Tennessee - San Francisco game can lead to some additional movement, because no one is really confident in either team. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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