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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 6

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 6
By Will Grant, October 13, 2016

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 6
Photo: USA Today Sports

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Matt Bitonti went into the Monday night contest with a slight lead, but a strong chance. He was the only staffer to pick Tampa Bay to pull off the upset, and if they did, he would win this week's contest. To his credit, the Bucs played hard and pulled out the win, giving Matt his first win. Probably the most interesting part of this week's contest was that the top four teams all missed five games, but due to the confidence weighting, Bitonti finished 13 points ahead of Bear Heiser who finished 4th. How you weight each team can really make a difference, especially when there are a few NFL teams off on a bye.  

Staffer
 ARI CHI WAS NE NYJ PHI HOU TEN ATL BUF SD CIN NYG TB MNF TOT
  SF IND BAL CLE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR TOT Pts
Bitonti
 ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB TB 48 85
  9 8 4 11 12 7 10 6 2 5 14 1 13 3    
Mamula
 ARI IND BAL NE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 52 78
  13 7 8 14 12 6 11 5 4 3 2 1 10 9    
Knotts
 ARI IND BAL NE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR 45 73
  3 12 2 14 13 5 11 7 8 6 4 1 10 9    
Heiser
 SF IND WAS NE PIT PHI MIN TEN DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 42 72
  1 11 3 14 10 9 7 4 8 6 5 2 12 13    
Larkin
 ARI IND BAL NE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR SD CIN GB CAR 49 70
  8 7 9 14 13 5 11 4 10 3 2 1 12 6    
Miglio
 SF IND BAL NE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR 49 67
  5 11 7 13 12 1 10 6 8 3 2 4 14 9    
Grant
 ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 41 66
  7 1 5 13 10 11 12 4 9 2 8 6 14 3    
Wood
 ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA ATL BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 41 66
  13 2 8 12 11 10 9 3 7 1 6 4 5 14    
Wimer
 ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI MIN TEN DEN BUF OAK DAL GB CAR 35 63
  11 7 10 13 6 12 14 5 4 3 8 2 1 9    
Tuccitto
 ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR 49 63
  3 5 6 11 14 8 13 7 10 2 4 1 12 9    
Brimacombe
 ARI IND WAS NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 47 63
  9 1 2 14 10 11 3 4 8 5 7 6 12 13    
Feery
 ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI MIN TEN DEN BUF OAK DAL NYG CAR 44 63
  9 6 7 14 10 11 13 1 12 5 8 3 2 4    
Hicks
 SF IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR 41 62
  6 5 9 8 11 7 14 4 13 1 10 2 12 3    
Kuczynski
 SF IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 39 61
  1 4 8 14 13 9 7 3 6 2 10 5 11 12    
Garda
 ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK CIN GB CAR 40 60
  1 5 9 14 7 13 12 3 8 4 11 6 10 2    
Roberts
 ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI HOU TEN DEN LAR OAK CIN GB CAR 45 60
  9 3 6 14 12 10 1 4 7 5 8 2 13 11    
Pasquino
 ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 50 59
  9 1 5 14 12 8 7 4 13 2 3 6 11 10    
Gray
 ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK CIN GB CAR 47 53
  3 1 8 12 13 9 14 10 11 4 5 2 6 7    
Away
 ARI CHI WAS NE NYJ PHI HOU TEN ATL BUF SD CIN NYG TB    
Total Pts
 107 18 5 233 0 135 1 14 7 34 2 42 2 3    
Home
 SF IND BAL CLE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR    
Total Pts
 0 79 111 0 201 17 178 70 141 28 115 13 178 143 0  

This week there were some tough losses, both in the NFL and in the confidence pool. Carolina was just the cherry on top of crap sundae. Baltimore, Philadelphia and Denver all had big losses, flushing 530 total confidence points down the drain. The Dolphins and the Bengals added another 110 points to the bonfire with their key losses as well. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Larkin finished 5th this week, but he actually extended his lead on the overall board by seven more points. With Wimer and Garda both in the low 60's this week, Larkin's lead is back to 20. 

Staffer
 Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin
 120 104 67 64 70                         425
Wimer
 83 90 89 80 63                         405
Garda
 87 98 76 71 60                         392
Knotts
 88 82 83 66 73                         392
Brimacombe
 74 87 82 85 63                         391
Tuccitto
 87 92 80 66 63                         388
Bitonti
 90 64 78 67 85                         384
Hicks
 64 105 69 83 62                         383
Miglio
 88 94 69 65 67                         383
Kuczynski
 98 79 68 73 61                         379
Roberts
 88 89 70 70 60                         377
Mamula
 79 99 46 67 78                         369
Grant
 75 84 65 74 66                         364
Gray
 85 88 58 71 53                         355
Pasquino
 84 90 59 57 59                         349
Heiser
 82 55 69 68 72                         346
Feery
 72 83 66 59 63                         343
Wood
 86 87 45 56 66                         340

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer
 DEN SF CLE JAX CAR PHI PIT LAR BAL CIN KC DAL ATL IND NYJ MNF TOT
  SD BUF TEN CHI NO WAS MIA DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI TOT Pts
Miglio
 DEN BUF TEN CHI NO WAS PIT DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 48 120
  14 13 9 2 5 1 12 7 4 15 8 10 6 3 11    
Garda
 DEN BUF TEN JAX NO PHI PIT DET BAL NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 40 120
  13 8 7 3 12 11 15 6 9 14 2 10 4 1 5    
Hicks
 DEN BUF TEN CHI NO WAS PIT DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 37 120
  8 13 14 2 3 4 10 1 5 15 6 7 11 9 12    
Heiser
 DEN BUF TEN CHI NO PHI PIT DET NYG NE OAK DAL SEA IND ARI 46 120
  11 10 9 8 7 6 5 15 4 14 3 2 13 1 12    
Feery
 DEN BUF TEN JAX NO PHI PIT DET NYG NE OAK DAL ATL IND ARI 48 120
  13 10 9 4 3 8 12 6 2 15 1 11 7 5 14    
Kuczynski
 DEN BUF TEN CHI CAR PHI PIT DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 48 120
  15 10 11 2 1 6 14 8 3 12 4 9 7 5 13    
Gray
 DEN BUF TEN JAX NO WAS PIT LAR NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 47 120
  10 12 11 2 8 5 13 1 9 15 3 6 4 7 14    
Tuccitto
 DEN BUF TEN CHI NO PHI PIT DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 49 120
  7 15 13 6 1 8 12 9 3 11 2 10 4 5 14    
Larkin
 DEN BUF TEN CHI NO WAS PIT DET NYG NE KC GB SEA IND ARI 42 120
  11 14 9 3 5 7 13 6 4 15 1 12 10 2 8    
Knotts
 DEN BUF TEN CHI CAR PHI PIT DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA IND ARI 41 120
  5 12 14 1 2 8 11 6 10 15 4 9 7 3 13    
Brimacombe
 DEN BUF TEN JAX CAR PHI PIT DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 47 120
  10 15 14 9 2 1 8 7 3 11 4 6 12 5 13    
Wood
 SD SF TEN JAX CAR PHI PIT DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA IND ARI 51 120
  2 1 5 3 4 12 14 6 13 15 9 8 10 7 11    
Pasquino
 SD BUF TEN JAX CAR PHI PIT LAR BAL NE KC GB SEA HOU ARI 44 120
  1 15 11 2 7 8 14 9 3 13 5 6 12 4 10    
Mamula
 DEN BUF TEN JAX CAR PHI PIT DET NYG NE KC GB SEA HOU ARI 35 120
  6 12 13 5 8 4 15 3 2 14 7 9 10 1 11    
Roberts
 DEN BUF TEN JAX CAR PHI PIT LAR NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 46 120
  8 14 12 4 7 9 15 1 6 13 5 10 3 2 11    
Wimer
 DEN BUF TEN CHI NO PHI PIT DET NYG NE KC GB SEA HOU ARI 45 120
  6 14 11 8 10 5 9 4 7 15 3 13 2 1 12    
Bitonti
 DEN BUF TEN JAX NO WAS PIT DET BAL NE OAK GB SEA IND ARI 44 120
  6 12 15 4 8 1 11 7 3 13 10 9 5 2 14    
Grant
 DEN BUF TEN CHI CAR PHI PIT LAR NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI 41 120
  11 14 1 3 5 7 12 2 10 15 6 9 4 8 13    
Away
 DEN SF CLE JAX CAR PHI PIT LAR BAL CIN KC DAL ATL IND NYJ    
Total Pts
 154 1 0 36 36 93 215 13 15 0 16 13 7 20 0    
Home
 SD BUF TEN CHI NO WAS MIA DET NYG NE OAK GB SEA HOU ARI    
Total Pts
 3 213 188 35 62 18 0 91 85 250 67 143 124 51 211    

HEAVY FAVORITES

Only two staffers have bucked the trend, taking San Diego over Denver tonight. The Broncos have over 150 confidence points riding on them in this game. Other heavy favorites this week include Buffalo, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, New England and Arizona. Seattle, Green Bay and even Philadelphia received a decent chunk of the confidence points in their respective contests.  

DUAL SUPPORT

Jacksonville at Chicago is about as close as it gets when it comes to the confidence pool. The Jaguars have just 1 extra point more than the Bears this week, and the game has just 71 total confidence points allocated to it. Indianapolis at Houston also has only 71 total confidence points, but the Texans are a 2-to-1 favorite from the Footballguys.com staff. Carolina at New Orleans is also a close game, but the Saints are a stronger choice based on this week's board. 

ODDS AND ENDS

With only two teams on a bye this week, we are back to 120 points for a maximum this week. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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