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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 5

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 5
By Will Grant, October 6, 2016

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 5
Photo: USA Today Sports

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

James Brimacombe survived a strange week of upsets to take home the top weekly prize. He missed five games, but managed his risk well enough to still post an impressive 85 points and hold on for the win. Andy Hicks narrowly missed the top spot this week, finishing second and Mark Wimer built on last week's victory with a solid performance to finish third. 

Staffer MIA IND DET BUF CLE OAK CAR SEA TEN DEN LAR NO DAL KC NYG MNF TOT
  CIN JAX CHI NE WAS BAL ATL NYJ HOU TB ARI SD SF PIT MIN TOT Pts
Brimacombe CIN IND DET NE WAS OAK CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI NO DAL PIT MIN 44 85
  14 3 8 7 16 4 5 6 13 11 12 1 2 10 9    
Hicks CIN JAX CHI NE WAS BAL ATL NYJ HOU DEN ARI SD SF PIT MIN 38 83
  13 5 4 12 14 6 2 3 15 11 7 8 1 10 9    
Wimer CIN JAX DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 31 80
  15 8 7 6 5 12 4 3 14 13 9 2 1 10 11    
Grant CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI NO DAL PIT MIN 40 74
  15 9 6 11 14 5 3 2 10 8 12 1 7 13 4    
Kuczynski CIN IND DET NE WAS OAK CAR SEA HOU DEN LAR NO DAL KC MIN 38 73
  14 7 13 15 12 3 11 6 10 8 2 4 9 1 5    
Garda CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR NYJ HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 40 71
  13 12 8 11 10 5 4 1 3 15 6 2 14 7 9    
Gray CIN JAX DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD SF PIT MIN 39 71
  15 2 5 14 11 6 7 8 12 10 13 3 1 4 9    
Roberts CIN IND DET BUF WAS BAL CAR NYJ HOU DEN ARI NO DAL PIT MIN 48 70
  15 14 12 2 13 7 5 1 9 10 11 3 6 8 4    
Heiser CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 1 68
  15 11 14 2 10 1 7 9 3 13 12 5 8 4 6    
Bitonti CIN IND DET NE WAS OAK CAR SEA HOU TB ARI NO DAL PIT NYG 45 67
  9 13 15 10 12 2 5 7 11 1 6 4 14 8 3    
Mamula CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 37 67
  11 10 9 12 13 8 7 6 15 5 4 3 2 14 1    
Tuccitto CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD SF PIT MIN 49 66
  11 7 4 10 12 6 3 2 14 9 15 8 1 5 13    
Knotts CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 44 66
  5 4 10 2 14 3 13 9 12 11 15 7 6 8 1    
Miglio CIN JAX DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 44 65
  12 1 13 11 10 6 8 7 5 15 14 3 2 4 9    
Larkin CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL ATL NYJ HOU DEN ARI SD SF PIT MIN 41 64
  9 4 8 15 14 11 7 5 13 3 10 2 1 12 6    
Feery CIN JAX DET NE WAS OAK CAR NYJ TEN DEN ARI SD DAL PIT NYG 40 59
  15 7 9 14 5 8 13 4 6 12 11 3 10 2 1    
Pasquino CIN JAX DET NE CLE OAK CAR NYJ HOU DEN ARI SD DAL KC MIN 41 57
  10 5 6 14 4 1 15 2 9 13 12 7 8 3 11    
Wood MIA JAX DET NE WAS OAK CAR SEA TEN DEN ARI NO DAL KC NYG 54 56
  15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Away MIA IND DET BUF CLE OAK CAR SEA TEN DEN LAR NO DAL KC NYG    
Total Pts 15 94 160 2 4 28 119 73 13 173 2 17 92 6 5    
Home CIN JAX CHI NE WAS BAL ATL NYJ HOU TB ARI SD SF PIT MIN    
Total Pts 211 42 4 178 196 76 9 16 168 1 174 53 4 119 107    

Detroit and New England were decent upsets that happened early on Sunday and started most of the field in the hole. Carolina's surprise loss also hurt and the Rams upset of the Cardinals also had a big impact on everyone. 631 total confidence points were lose on those four games. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

With another strong performance, Wimer has narrowed the gap on Larkin's lead, but he's still 13 points behind the leader. With four teams on a bye this week, it's going to be even harder to gain any ground on Larkin this week. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin 120 104 67 64                           355
Wimer 83 90 89 80                           342
Garda 87 98 76 71                           332
Brimacombe 74 87 82 85                           328
Tuccitto 87 92 80 66                           325
Hicks 64 105 69 83                           321
Knotts 88 82 83 66                           319
Kuczynski 98 79 68 73                           318
Roberts 88 89 70 70                           317
Miglio 88 94 69 65                           316
Gray 85 88 58 71                           302
Bitonti 90 64 78 67                           299
Grant 75 84 65 74                           298
Mamula 79 99 46 67                           291
Pasquino 84 90 59 57                           290
Feery 72 83 66 59                           280
Wood 86 87 45 56                           274
Heiser 82 55 69 68                           274

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer ARI CHI WAS NE NYJ PHI HOU TEN ATL BUF SD CIN NYG TB MNF
  SF IND BAL CLE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR TOT
Miglio SF IND BAL NE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR 49
  5 11 7 13 12 1 10 6 8 3 2 4 14 9  
Garda ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK CIN GB CAR 40
  1 5 9 14 7 13 12 3 8 4 11 6 10 2  
Hicks SF IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR 41
  6 5 9 8 11 7 14 4 13 1 10 2 12 3  
Heiser SF IND WAS NE PIT PHI MIN TEN DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 42
  1 11 3 14 10 9 7 4 8 6 5 2 12 13  
Feery ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI MIN TEN DEN BUF OAK DAL NYG CAR 44
  9 6 7 14 10 11 13 1 12 5 8 3 2 4  
Kuczynski SF IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 39
  1 4 8 14 13 9 7 3 6 2 10 5 11 12  
Gray ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK CIN GB CAR 47
  3 1 8 12 13 9 14 10 11 4 5 2 6 7  
Tuccitto ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR 49
  3 5 6 11 14 8 13 7 10 2 4 1 12 9  
Larkin ARI IND BAL NE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR SD CIN GB CAR 49
  8 7 9 14 13 5 11 4 10 3 2 1 12 6  
Knotts ARI IND BAL NE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR 45
  3 12 2 14 13 5 11 7 8 6 4 1 10 9  
Brimacombe ARI IND WAS NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 47
  9 1 2 14 10 11 3 4 8 5 7 6 12 13  
Wood ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA ATL BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 41
  13 2 8 12 11 10 9 3 7 1 6 4 5 14  
Pasquino ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 50
  9 1 5 14 12 8 7 4 13 2 3 6 11 10  
Mamula ARI IND BAL NE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 52
  13 7 8 14 12 6 11 5 4 3 2 1 10 9  
Roberts ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI HOU TEN DEN LAR OAK CIN GB CAR 45
  9 3 6 14 12 10 1 4 7 5 8 2 13 11  
Wimer ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI MIN TEN DEN BUF OAK DAL GB CAR 35
  11 7 10 13 6 12 14 5 4 3 8 2 1 9  
Bitonti ARI IND BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB TB 48
  9 8 4 11 12 7 10 6 2 5 14 1 13 3  
Grant ARI CHI BAL NE PIT PHI MIN MIA DEN BUF OAK CIN GB CAR 41
  7 1 5 13 10 11 12 4 9 2 8 6 14 3  
Away ARI CHI WAS NE NYJ PHI HOU TEN ATL BUF SD CIN NYG TB  
Total Pts 107 18 5 233 0 135 1 14 7 34 2 42 2 3  
Home SF IND BAL CLE PIT DET MIN MIA DEN LAR OAK DAL GB CAR  
Total Pts 13 79 111 0 201 17 178 70 141 28 115 13 178 143  

HEAVY FAVORITES

The Cardinals are a strong favorite in tonight's contest, but it is the Patriots and Steelers who really drew the biggest support from the field with both teams receiving unaminous support and over 200 total confidence points each. Minnesota, Denver, Oakland Carolina and Green Bay also drew big numbers for their respective games. Philadelphia is also a decent favorite to beat the Lions this week after having two weeks to prepare. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Buffalo vs. the Rams looks like the toughest game to call this week, with the Bills being a slight favorite and just 62 total confidence points wagered on the entire game (just 3.4 confidence points per staffer). The Colts may be the first team in NFL history to not have a bye after coming back from London, but are still the favorite to win over the injury-riddled Chicago Bears. The Miami-Tennessee game did not draw a ton of confidence with the weather certainly factoring into everyone's decisions. The Bengals are a strong favorite over the Cowboys this week, but the game had the lowest total confidence points for the board with just 55 total confidence points. 

ODDS AND ENDS

The maximum total this week is just 105 due to the NFL bye weeks. If the Jets or Browns pull an upset this weekend, the weekly scores are going to be pretty low.

A reminder to everyone that these picks are due from the staff by 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday nights. With late breaking injury reports, and the weather being a major factor in several games this weekend, it's important to check the news wire and make adjustments to your picks if you are allowed to do so. The Monday night game is a good example of a game that can be dramatically impacted by news from later in the week. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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