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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 4

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 4
By Will Grant, September 29, 2016

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread): Week 4
Photo: USA Today Sports

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Mark Wimer is easily the biggest Atlanta Falcons fan on the staff, and he bet heavily on his birds to pull out a win on Monday night. When the Falcons defeated the Saints, Wimer took home this week's top spot. It marked an impressive come back for Wimer, as he scored 15 confidence points on the Sunday night game as well, giving him over 1/4 of his points in the final two games of the week. Nice job Mark!. 

Staffer HOU DEN WAS MIN CLE BAL ARI OAK DET LAR SF SD NYJ PIT CHI ATL MNF TOT
  NE CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX BUF TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PHI DAL NO TOT PTS
Wimer HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PHI DAL ATL 77 89
  10 9 8 12 16 7 6 5 4 11 3 14 2 1 15 13    
Knotts HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 55 83
  1 2 3 15 16 4 14 9 13 5 12 11 10 8 6 7    
Brimacombe HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 62 82
  3 4 5 12 14 13 10 6 15 2 16 7 11 1 9 8    
Tuccitto HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 49 80
  2 3 11 13 15 4 10 1 14 8 16 7 9 6 12 5    
Bitonti HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND NYJ PHI DAL ATL 48 78
  11 4 12 14 15 5 8 6 13 7 9 10 2 1 16 3    
Garda HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND NYJ PIT DAL NO 70 76
  8 13 14 9 12 10 16 11 15 6 5 7 1 4 3 2    
Roberts HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI TEN GB TB SEA IND NYJ PIT DAL NO 62 70
  4 1 11 15 16 10 12 3 9 7 13 8 2 6 14 5    
Miglio NE CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 51 69
  2 5 14 12 16 1 13 4 11 6 10 8 7 9 15 3    
Heiser HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 56 69
  11 10 9 8 7 6 16 5 15 14 13 4 3 2 12 1    
Hicks NE CIN NYG CAR MIA BAL BUF TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PHI DAL NO 45 69
  11 12 13 15 14 3 2 4 16 6 9 8 1 5 10 7    
Kuczynski HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 53 68
  3 2 10 12 14 1 16 5 11 4 9 7 6 15 13 8    
Larkin NE CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI TEN GB TB SEA SD KC PIT DAL NO 68 67
  6 12 11 4 13 5 10 7 16 9 15 3 2 1 14 8    
Feery HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND NYJ PIT DAL NO 52 66
  11 10 8 16 12 6 14 5 9 3 15 2 4 13 7 1    
Grant HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 52 65
  2 1 9 16 15 5 13 6 14 7 10 4 3 11 12 8    
Pasquino HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND NYJ PIT DAL NO 69 59
  8 6 10 15 14 4 12 2 13 9 16 3 1 5 11 7    
Gray HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 52 58
  6 3 12 13 16 2 15 1 11 8 7 4 5 10 14 9    
Mamula HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 56 46
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Wood HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI TEN DET TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL ATL 47 45
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Away HOU DEN WAS MIN CLE BAL ARI OAK DET LAR SF SD NYJ PIT CHI ATL    
Total Pts 112 69 0 0 0 50 205 70 8 0 0 3 10 97 0 17    
Home NE CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX BUF TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PHI DAL NO    
Total Pts 19 58 188 227 249 58 2 28 207 126 190 114 67 7 187 80    

Most of the staff got off to a slow start this week. Houston was heavily favored by the field to beat the Patriots on Thursday night, and the big upsets of the Giants and the Panthers early on Sunday took everyone down a peg as well. The Arizona loss to Buffalo also took down the majority of the staffers this week. With big upsets like this, you can see the impact with lower overall scoring by the entire board.  

OVERALL RANKINGS

Wimer stormed into second place this week with his big finish, but Larkin still leads the field by almost 30 points. As we head into the NFL bye weeks, it's going to be harder to make any big moves (see below). 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin 120 104 67                             291
Wimer 83 90 89                             262
Garda 87 98 76                             261
Tuccitto 87 92 80                             259
Knotts 88 82 83                             253
Miglio 88 94 69                             251
Roberts 88 89 70                             247
Kuczynski 98 79 68                             245
Brimacombe 74 87 82                             243
Hicks 64 105 69                             238
Pasquino 84 90 59                             233
Bitonti 90 64 78                             232
Gray 85 88 58                             231
Mamula 79 99 46                             224
Grant 75 84 65                             224
Feery 72 83 66                             221
Wood 86 87 45                             218
Heiser 82 55 69                             206

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer MIA IND DET BUF CLE OAK CAR SEA TEN DEN LAR NO DAL KC NYG MNF
  CIN JAX CHI NE WAS BAL ATL NYJ HOU TB ARI SD SF PIT MIN TOT
Miglio CIN JAX DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 44
  12 1 13 11 10 6 8 7 5 15 14 3 2 4 9  
Garda CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR NYJ HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 40
  13 12 8 11 10 5 4 1 3 15 6 2 14 7 9  
Hicks CIN JAX CHI NE WAS BAL ATL NYJ HOU DEN ARI SD SF PIT MIN 38
  13 5 4 12 14 6 2 3 15 11 7 8 1 10 9  
Heiser                                
  x                              
Feery CIN JAX DET NE WAS OAK CAR NYJ TEN DEN ARI SD DAL PIT NYG 40
  15 7 9 14 5 8 13 4 6 12 11 3 10 2 1  
Kuczynski CIN IND DET NE WAS OAK CAR SEA HOU DEN LAR NO DAL KC MIN 38
  14 7 13 15 12 3 11 6 10 8 2 4 9 1 5  
Gray CIN JAX DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD SF PIT MIN 39
  15 2 5 14 11 6 7 8 12 10 13 3 1 4 9  
Tuccitto CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD SF PIT MIN 49
  11 7 4 10 12 6 3 2 14 9 15 8 1 5 13  
Larkin CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL ATL NYJ HOU DEN ARI SD SF PIT MIN 41
  9 4 8 15 14 11 7 5 13 3 10 2 1 12 6  
Knotts CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 44
  5 4 10 2 14 3 13 9 12 11 15 7 6 8 1  
Brimacombe CIN IND DET NE WAS OAK CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI NO DAL PIT MIN 44
  14 3 8 7 16 4 5 6 13 11 12 1 2 10 9  
Wood MIA JAX DET NE WAS OAK CAR SEA TEN DEN ARI NO DAL KC NYG 54
  15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Pasquino CIN JAX DET NE CLE OAK CAR NYJ HOU DEN ARI SD DAL KC MIN 41
  10 5 6 14 4 1 15 2 9 13 12 7 8 3 11  
Mamula CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 37
  11 10 9 12 13 8 7 6 15 5 4 3 2 14 1  
Roberts CIN IND DET BUF WAS BAL CAR NYJ HOU DEN ARI NO DAL PIT MIN 48
  15 14 12 2 13 7 5 1 9 10 11 3 6 8 4  
Wimer CIN JAX DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI SD DAL PIT MIN 31
  15 8 7 6 5 12 4 3 14 13 9 2 1 10 11  
Bitonti CIN IND DET NE WAS OAK CAR SEA HOU TB ARI NO DAL PIT NYG 45
  9 13 15 10 12 2 5 7 11 1 6 4 14 8 3  
Grant CIN IND DET NE WAS BAL CAR SEA HOU DEN ARI NO DAL PIT MIN 40
  15 9 6 11 14 5 3 2 10 8 12 1 7 13 4  
Away MIA IND DET BUF CLE OAK CAR SEA TEN DEN LAR NO DAL KC NYG  
Total Pts 15 83 146 2 4 28 112 64 13 160 2 17 84 6 5  
Home CIN JAX CHI NE WAS BAL ATL NYJ HOU TB ARI SD SF PIT MIN  
Total Pts 196 42 4 176 186 75 9 16 165 1 162 48 4 115 101  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Only Jason Wood was brave enough to pick the Dolphins as an upset winner tonight. Most of the staff believe the Bengals will win this one pretty easily. There were no unanimous picks this week by the staffers as the competition starts to get a little tougher. In your local office pool, this might be the week to take a flyer pick or two. However, Detroit, New England, Carolina, Washington, Denver, Arizona, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Minnesota were all heavily picked to win their respective contests. It's going to be an interesting week if there are some upsets. 

DUAL SUPPORT

New Orleans at San Diego was the game that the staff was least confident in picking. Although San Diego is the clear favorite, the total staff risked just 65 combined confidence points on the game. Baltimore over Oakland and Indy over Jacksonville were the 'closest' games, with the favorite receiving between two and three times as many confidence points as the underdog. 

ODDS AND ENDS

This week starts the NFL bye weeks, so the maximum possible score any staffer can get is 120 points. This makes the contest significantly harder because the point spreads will be a lot closer, and it will be a lot harder to make a big move without having the top score of 16 available. With Larkin's 30 point overall lead, the league is going to have a hard time chipping away at that over the next several weeks. 

Last week I made a comment about Andy Hicks being a guy who swings for the fence a lot, but usually ends up at the bottom of the overall board. This week I received a question from one of our subscribers (thanks Anand!) and it gave me an opportunity to go through the Confidence Pool archives over the last several seasons. Turns out I was wrong, and Andy's done pretty well over the last several years, including being the overall winner of the confidence pool and the ATS pool back in 2013. Just goes to show you why it pays to check the facts vs. going with your gut. 

For those who might be interested, here are the links to previous Confidence Pool seasons:

2015

2014

2013

2012

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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