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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Final

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Final
By Will Grant, January 4, 2017

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Final
Photo: USA Today Sports

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Well that's a fitting end to an interesting season. A tie. Keith Roberts and Alex Miglio both finished one of the toughest weeks of the season with 124 confidence points. This week was full of landmines, but both Roberts and Miglio did exceptionally well. Roberts missed two games while Miglio missed three. Both missed Washington, and Roberts missed Jacksonville while Miglio picked the Titans but also picked the Rams and the Dolphins to pull off upsets last week. Turning to the tie-breaker, Roberts chose 55 total points for the Sunday Night game while Miglio chose 52. The final score was Green Bay 31 - Detroit 24 for exactly 55 points. This gave Roberts his first win of the season. Congrats!

Staffer CAR JAX CLE CHI BAL BUF DAL HOU NE NYG OAK SEA KC NO ARI GB MNF TOT
  TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN MIA WAS DEN SF SD ATL LAR DET TOT Pts
Roberts TB JAX PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 55 124
  15 8 16 14 9 1 5 2 3 4 11 13 12 7 10 6    
Miglio TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN MIA WAS DEN SEA KC ATL LAR GB 52 124
  12 16 13 15 9 7 10 8 1 5 4 14 11 3 6 2    
Mamula TB IND PIT MIN CIN BUF PHI HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   119
  3 7 15 8 2 6 11 10 12 1 5 14 9 4 13 16    
Knotts TB IND CLE MIN CIN NYJ DAL HOU NE NYG DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   118
  3 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 16 9 15 14 13 12 10 11    
Brimacombe TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI TEN NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI DET   115
  16 15 14 13 5 6 7 4 8 9 3 12 10 11 2 1    
Gray TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI HOU MIA WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   115
  9 14 16 10 6 7 2 4 1 3 8 15 13 11 12 5    
Grant CAR IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   114
  1 13 15 6 7 5 2 4 16 3 8 12 11 14 10 9    
Feery TB JAX CLE CHI CIN BUF PHI TEN NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   111
  10 4 1 3 7 6 5 2 12 11 9 16 15 8 14 13    
Larkin CAR IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   109
  2 8 16 13 7 11 1 3 12 4 5 15 9 10 14 6    
Kuczynski CAR IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ DAL HOU NE NYG OAK SEA KC ATL ARI DET   109
  1 9 13 12 2 5 11 8 16 6 4 14 15 10 7 3    
Garda TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   106
  9 14 13 4 11 5 10 3 2 1 6 7 15 8 16 12    
Wimer TB IND PIT CHI BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS OAK SEA KC ATL ARI GB   96
  7 11 6 5 10 9 4 3 2 1 8 16 15 14 13 12    
Hicks TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ DAL TEN MIA WAS OAK SEA KC ATL LAR DET   93
  11 15 16 10 2 6 12 3 5 8 4 9 7 14 1 13    
Tuccitto CAR IND PIT MIN BAL NYJ DAL HOU NE WAS OAK SEA SD ATL ARI DET   92
  7 13 9 12 5 8 1 4 14 16 3 10 6 11 15 2    
Bitonti TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   91
  8 5 2 7 3 1 10 15 11 16 4 14 13 12 6 9    
Wood TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI HOU MIA WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   89
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Pasquino TB JAX PIT MIN BAL NYJ DAL TEN NE WAS OAK SEA KC ATL ARI DET   89
  12 9 7 8 13 4 1 2 14 15 3 16 5 10 11 6    
Heiser TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   87
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Away CAR JAX CLE CHI BAL BUF DAL HOU NE NYG OAK SEA KC NO ARI GB    
Total Pts 11 21 4 8 91 78 68 80 146 15 22 221 181 0 157 103    
Home TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN MIA WAS DEN SF SD ATL LAR DET    
Total Pts 147 171 199 162 36 37 51 21 15 111 90 0 6 165 7 25    

OVERALL RANKINGS

After three impressive weeks coming back from the edge, Matt Bitonti's hot streak ran out. He finished week 17 with just 91 points while Larkin had 109. The 18 point swing gave Larkin the win, after he led the overall board for 15 of the first 16 weeks. Devin Knotts came on strong down the stretch, finishing this week with 118 points and edging out Bitonti for second place. Knotts finished just 7 points behind Larkin for the overall winner's crown. Nice finish gentlemen. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin 120 104 67 64 70 79 98 63 61 46 84 116 104 102 92 75 109 1454
Knotts 88 82 83 66 73 77 78 65 72 47 87 117 89 100 112 93 118 1447
Bitonti 90 64 78 67 85 79 71 69 71 59 81 118 94 123 111 90 91 1441
Miglio 88 94 69 65 67 74 85 60 71 60 92 106 94 108 103 74 124 1434
Garda 87 98 76 71 60 60 70 58 75 84 84 109 95 98 100 85 106 1416
Kuczynski 98 79 68 73 61 69 68 58 77 59 80 117 105 97 110 71 109 1399
Mamula 79 99 46 67 78 78 70 62 63 47 91 112 94 91 105 95 119 1396
Gray 85 88 58 71 53 87 76 62 69 53 88 108 93 95 110 79 115 1390
Hicks 64 105 69 83 62 87 78 50 63 78 87 108 97 101 83 77 93 1385
Grant 75 84 65 74 66 65 64 59 79 61 82 114 97 93 107 76 114 1375
Feery 72 83 66 59 63 74 69 71 66 45 65 130 84 104 117 91 111 1370
Tuccitto 87 92 80 66 63 75 79 68 63 53 89 107 87 96 87 76 92 1360
Wimer 83 90 89 80 63 79 70 64 58 59 78 91 91 75 106 79 96 1351
Roberts 88 89 70 70 60 65 67 43 61 66 79 119 92 75 106 77 124 1351
Brimacombe 74 87 82 85 63 89 87 46 66 39 73 106 89 97 78 65 115 1341
Pasquino 84 90 59 57 59 73 74 52 64 61 75 119 97 81 107 85 89 1326
Heiser 82 55 69 68 72 86 92 58 76 38 61 104 86 96 102 38 87 1270
Wood 86 87 45 56 66 65 92 49 68 42 73 112 54 84 91 61 89 1220

Final week for the top three

Larkin regained his position on the top of the overall leaderboard when it mattered, but in a season with 512 possible games to pick, this is just how close it came for these three guys to bring home the overall crown.

Staffer CAR JAX CLE CHI BAL BUF DAL HOU NE NYG OAK SEA KC NO ARI GB MNF TOT
  TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN MIA WAS DEN SF SD ATL LAR DET TOT Pts
Larkin CAR IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   109
  2 8 16 13 7 11 1 3 12 4 5 15 9 10 14 6    
Knotts TB IND CLE MIN CIN NYJ DAL HOU NE NYG DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   118
  3 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 16 9 15 14 13 12 10 11    
Bitonti TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB   91
  8 5 2 7 3 1 10 15 11 16 4 14 13 12 6 9    

Larkin started off the week in the hole, missing on Carolina over Tampa Bay. But he only lost 2 points for his mistake, while Knotts and Bitonti only banked a small amount of points. Both Larkin and Bitonti missed Baltimore and Buffalo, but Larkin really put himself in a hole losing 18 points compared to Bitonti's 4. But what ultimately gave Larkin the win was picking Philadelphia over the Cowboys. Larkin gained 1 point while Bitonti lost 10. This was a big swing and make up for Larkin's miss on Carolina. But the icing on the cake came with the Houston and Washington picks, where Larkin and Bitonti missed both of them, but Larkin lost just 7 while Bitonti lost his top 2 picks at 15 and 16. 

Knotts made his comeback with some gutsy picks. But the entire contest turned on one game - Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh. Had the Browns not fumbled the ball with less than a minute to go inside Pittsburgh's 5 yard line, they would have either scored a TD or kicked a field goal to win the game. This would have given Knotts another 3 points, but it would have cost Larkin 16 and Bitonti 2 more. Knotts would have won the overall contest 1450-1439-1438 with Bitonti finishing second and Larkin finishing third. Knotts would have won the weekly contest with 121 points as well since Roberts and Miglio both had big points on the Steelers. Yep, it was just that close!

Thanks for following along this season. Hopefully our picks helped you dominate your office pool.  

See you next year!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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