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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 17

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 17
By Will Grant, December 29, 2016

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 17
Photo: USA Today Sports

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

John Mamula put together his first winning lineup this season, and finished at the top of the leaderboard this week. In a week of big upsets, Mamula still managed to score 95 points because of solid risk management. Devin Knotts actually missed five games compared to Mamula's six, but because of his confidence points, Knotts finished two points behind him. 

Staffer NYG MIA WAS NYJ TEN ATL SD MIN IND SF TB ARI CIN BAL DEN DET MNF TOT
  PHI BUF CHI NE JAX CAR CLE GB OAK LAR NO SEA HOU PIT KC DAL TOT Pts
Mamula NYG BUF WAS NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA HOU PIT KC DAL 42 95
  8 1 4 16 12 13 11 7 10 3 2 6 5 15 9 14    
Knotts NYG MIA WAS NE TEN ATL CLE GB OAK SF NO SEA CIN PIT DEN DAL 47 93
  9 7 6 16 14 8 1 10 11 5 4 15 2 13 3 12    
Feery NYG MIA WAS NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK SF NO SEA CIN PIT KC DAL 42 91
  10 3 6 16 13 5 2 15 14 1 4 12 8 7 11 9    
Bitonti NYG MIA WAS NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA CIN PIT KC DAL 46 90
  6 3 7 16 15 4 8 13 9 1 5 14 2 10 11 12    
Garda NYG MIA WAS NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK LAR TB SEA CIN PIT KC DAL 60 85
  7 10 15 16 9 8 12 11 6 4 3 14 2 5 1 13    
Pasquino PHI BUF WAS NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK SF TB SEA HOU PIT KC DET 47 85
  1 2 4 16 12 9 15 13 11 8 3 14 7 6 10 5    
Gray NYG MIA WAS NE TEN CAR SD GB OAK LAR TB SEA HOU PIT KC DAL 41 79
  7 1 4 16 12 3 13 15 11 6 2 14 5 9 8 10    
Wimer NYG MIA WAS NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA HOU PIT KC DAL 45 79
  11 10 9 16 12 8 13 14 7 6 5 15 4 3 2 1    
Hicks NYG BUF WAS NE TEN CAR SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA HOU PIT KC DAL 39 77
  5 2 7 16 9 8 6 12 13 14 1 15 3 10 11 4    
Roberts PHI BUF CHI NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA CIN PIT KC DAL 45 77
  1 6 3 16 12 5 14 15 10 2 7 13 9 4 11 8    
Grant NYG BUF CHI NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA HOU PIT KC DAL 45 76
  11 7 1 16 6 5 15 14 9 8 2 12 4 13 10 3    
Tuccitto NYG BUF CHI NE JAX CAR SD GB OAK SF TB SEA CIN PIT DEN DAL 49 76
  1 10 4 16 5 2 13 12 11 8 7 14 3 9 6 15    
Larkin NYG BUF WAS NE TEN CAR SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA CIN PIT DEN DAL 49 75
  8 7 6 16 12 3 10 15 13 4 5 14 2 9 1 11    
Miglio NYG BUF WAS NE TEN CAR SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA HOU PIT KC DAL 47 74
  11 5 3 16 15 6 4 8 9 7 2 14 1 10 12 13    
Kuczynski NYG BUF WAS NE TEN ATL SD GB OAK LAR NO SEA CIN PIT KC DAL 56 71
  13 2 7 16 15 9 14 12 8 6 4 10 5 3 1 11    
Brimacombe PHI BUF WAS NE TEN CAR SD GB IND SF TB SEA HOU PIT DEN DET 52 65
  1 2 14 16 15 3 13 12 4 5 6 11 7 10 8 9    
Wood NYG MIA WAS NE TEN CAR SD GB IND SF TB SEA CIN BAL KC DAL 51 61
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Heiser NYG BUF CHI NE TEN CAR SD GB IND SF NO SEA CIN PIT KC DAL 36 38
  15 14 16 11 10 13 9 8 12 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Away NYG MIA WAS NYJ TEN ATL SD MIN IND SF TB ARI CIN BAL DEN DET    
Total Pts 138 49 106 0 205 74 182 0 24 41 27 0 41 3 18 14    
Home PHI BUF CHI NE JAX CAR CLE GB OAK LAR NO SEA HOU PIT KC DAL    
Total Pts 3 58 24 280 5 49 1 215 152 61 47 217 36 139 101 138    

The Giants started off the week with a big loss on Thursday Night, dropping 138 confidence points and giving Dallas the division title and nothing to play for on Monday Night. On Sunday, the Jaguars upset the Titans at home, dropping over 200 confidence points and the Cardinals upset the Seahawks, dropping another 217. Finally, Cleveland's first win of the season gave everyone except Knotts another jolt, taking down 182 total confidence points.   

OVERALL RANKINGS

Matt Bitonti went on a tear three weeks ago and he did what looked like something that wasn't possible. In week 14, he was in 4th place, 50 points behind the overall leader Dave Larkin and it looked like he was a week or two away from being eliminated. But he finished on the top of the leaderboard that week with 123 points, and posted an impressive 324 points over the next three weeks, closing the gap and actually passing Larkin this week, knocking him out of first place for the first time this season. Well done!

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Bitonti 90 64 78 67 85 79 71 69 71 59 81 118 94 123 111 90   1350
Larkin 120 104 67 64 70 79 98 63 61 46 84 116 104 102 92 75   1345
Knotts 88 82 83 66 73 77 78 65 72 47 87 117 89 100 112 93   1329
Miglio 88 94 69 65 67 74 85 60 71 60 92 106 94 108 103 74   1310
Garda 87 98 76 71 60 60 70 58 75 84 84 109 95 98 100 85   1310
Hicks 64 105 69 83 62 87 78 50 63 78 87 108 97 101 83 77   1292
Kuczynski 98 79 68 73 61 69 68 58 77 59 80 117 105 97 110 71   1290
Mamula 79 99 46 67 78 78 70 62 63 47 91 112 94 91 105 95   1277
Gray 85 88 58 71 53 87 76 62 69 53 88 108 93 95 110 79   1275
Tuccitto 87 92 80 66 63 75 79 68 63 53 89 107 87 96 87 76   1268
Grant 75 84 65 74 66 65 64 59 79 61 82 114 97 93 107 76   1261
Feery 72 83 66 59 63 74 69 71 66 45 65 130 84 104 117 91   1259
Wimer 83 90 89 80 63 79 70 64 58 59 78 91 91 75 106 79   1255
Pasquino 84 90 59 57 59 73 74 52 64 61 75 119 97 81 107 85   1237
Roberts 88 89 70 70 60 65 67 43 61 66 79 119 92 75 106 77   1227
Brimacombe 74 87 82 85 63 89 87 46 66 39 73 106 89 97 78 65   1226
Heiser 82 55 69 68 72 86 92 58 76 38 61 104 86 96 102 38   1183
Wood 86 87 45 56 66 65 92 49 68 42 73 112 54 84 91 61   1131

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer CAR JAX CLE CHI BAL BUF DAL HOU NE NYG OAK SEA KC NO ARI GB MNF
  TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN MIA WAS DEN SF SD ATL LAR DET TOT
Miglio TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN MIA WAS DEN SEA KC ATL LAR GB 52
  12 16 13 15 9 7 10 8 1 5 4 14 11 3 6 2  
Garda TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 45
  9 14 13 4 11 5 10 3 2 1 6 7 15 8 16 12  
Hicks TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ DAL TEN MIA WAS OAK SEA KC ATL LAR DET 70
  11 15 16 10 2 6 12 3 5 8 4 9 7 14 1 13  
Heiser TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 42
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Feery TB JAX CLE CHI CIN BUF PHI TEN NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 45
  10 4 1 3 7 6 5 2 12 11 9 16 15 8 14 13  
Kuczynski CAR IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ DAL HOU NE NYG OAK SEA KC ATL ARI DET 44
  1 9 13 12 2 5 11 8 16 6 4 14 15 10 7 3  
Gray TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI HOU MIA WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 54
  9 14 16 10 6 7 2 4 1 3 8 15 13 11 12 5  
Tuccitto CAR IND PIT MIN BAL NYJ DAL HOU NE WAS OAK SEA SD ATL ARI DET 49
  7 13 9 12 5 8 1 4 14 16 3 10 6 11 15 2  
Larkin CAR IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 51
  2 8 16 13 7 11 1 3 12 4 5 15 9 10 14 6  
Knotts TB IND CLE MIN CIN NYJ DAL HOU NE NYG DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 41
  3 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 16 9 15 14 13 12 10 11  
Brimacombe TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI TEN NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI DET 51
  16 15 14 13 5 6 7 4 8 9 3 12 10 11 2 1  
Wood TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI HOU MIA WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 61
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Pasquino TB JAX PIT MIN BAL NYJ DAL TEN NE WAS OAK SEA KC ATL ARI DET 51
  12 9 7 8 13 4 1 2 14 15 3 16 5 10 11 6  
Mamula TB IND PIT MIN CIN BUF PHI HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 47
  3 7 15 8 2 6 11 10 12 1 5 14 9 4 13 16  
Roberts TB JAX PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 55
  15 8 16 14 9 1 5 2 3 4 11 13 12 7 10 6  
Wimer TB IND PIT CHI BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS OAK SEA KC ATL ARI GB 77
  7 11 6 5 10 9 4 3 2 1 8 16 15 14 13 12  
Bitonti TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 49
  8 5 2 7 3 1 10 15 11 16 4 14 13 12 6 9  
Grant CAR IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 61
  1 13 15 6 7 5 2 4 16 3 8 12 11 14 10 9  
Away CAR JAX CLE CHI BAL BUF DAL HOU NE NYG OAK SEA KC NO ARI GB  
Total Pts 11 21 4 8 91 78 68 80 146 15 22 221 181 0 157 103  
Home TB IND PIT MIN CIN NYJ PHI TEN MIA WAS DEN SF SD ATL LAR DET  
Total Pts 147 171 199 162 36 37 51 21 15 111 90 0 6 165 7 25  

HEAVY FAVORITES

This week is tough to pick, especially since so many teams are either out of the playoffs, or have their playoff position locked in. Starters are resting and younger players are getting their shot in unlikely situations. Still, there are a couple teams that should be near the top of your confidence pool this week. Seattle is the clear favorite of this week's matchups, with over 220 confidence points and a unaminous selection. The Falcons were also picked by everyone, but with slightly less confidence. Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Kansas City and Arizona are all strong favorites this week as well. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Dallas will probably be taking the second half of their game off, giving several staffers reason to back Philadelphia this week. They have the closest matchup this week with the Cowboys having a slight edge. Houston is a strong favorite over Tennessee this week, but the game has the lowest total confidence points due to both teams being banged up. Denver and Buffalo both have a significant edge in confidence points over the Raiders and the Jets, but the total confidence points for these game is also low. 

ODDS AND ENDS

So it's down to these two teams, and with Bitonti carrying all of the momentum going into the final match. Here's how the two players stack up this week. 

  Bitonti TB IND PIT MIN BAL BUF DAL HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 49
    8 5 2 7 3 1 10 15 11 16 4 14 13 12 6 9  
  Larkin CAR IND PIT MIN BAL BUF PHI HOU NE WAS DEN SEA KC ATL ARI GB 51
    2 8 16 13 7 11 1 3 12 4 5 15 9 10 14 6  

Bitonti took Tampa and Dallas this week while Larkin picked the Panthers and the Eagles, although he only risked a couple confidence points on each of them. These games will have the biggest impact on the final leaderboard. Both players backed Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Buffalo, Houston, Washington and Arizona, but Larkin went heavy on Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Buffalo and Arizona while Bitonti went heavy on Houston and Washington. A key loss in any of those games will also have an impact on the final totals. It's going to be one heck of a Sunday. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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