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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 13

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 13
By Will Grant, December 1, 2016

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 13
Photo: USA Today Sports

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Chris Feery took home the top spot this week with a near perfect 130 points. Chris missed three of the last four games this weekend, but risked just 6 total confidence points on those games to come home with the highest score that any staffer has achieved this season. Well done!

Staffer MIN WAS PIT JAX SD NYG ARI TEN LAR SF CIN SEA NE CAR KC GB MNF TOT
  DET DAL IND BUF HOU CLE ATL CHI NO MIA BAL TB NYJ OAK DEN PHI TOTAL Pts
Feery DET DAL PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 45 130
  8 15 13 10 5 11 4 7 12 9 6 3 16 14 2 1    
Pasquino MIN DAL PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 53 119
  4 9 7 16 6 15 8 14 12 13 3 10 11 5 1 2    
Roberts MIN DAL PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA CIN SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 45 119
  1 16 15 14 8 12 5 11 10 9 4 7 13 6 3 2    
Bitonti DET DAL PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 56 118
  8 1 12 16 2 13 6 9 15 14 7 10 11 4 3 5    
Knotts DET DAL PIT BUF HOU NYG ATL TEN NO MIA CIN SEA NE CAR KC GB 45 117
  6 9 10 8 7 16 15 11 14 13 5 4 12 3 2 1    
Kuczynski DET DAL PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 42 117
  2 12 13 8 5 15 3 10 9 11 7 14 16 6 1 4    
Larkin MIN DAL PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA CIN SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 48 116
  2 13 10 12 4 14 8 7 15 11 3 9 16 6 5 1    
Grant DET DAL PIT BUF HOU NYG ARI TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 45 114
  2 5 14 12 3 15 1 13 10 11 9 8 16 7 4 6    
Mamula MIN DAL IND BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK KC PHI 53 112
  10 11 6 5 4 16 9 14 12 13 8 7 15 3 2 1    
Wood DET WAS PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE CAR KC PHI 44 112
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Garda MIN DAL PIT BUF HOU NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 45 109
  4 12 16 15 7 14 8 10 6 9 5 13 11 3 2 1    
Hicks DET DAL IND BUF HOU NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL TB NE OAK DEN PHI 55 108
  3 6 1 16 4 12 14 10 5 9 7 2 11 13 15 8    
Gray DET DAL PIT BUF HOU NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 51 108
  2 1 8 11 3 13 10 9 7 12 14 15 16 5 6 4    
Tuccitto DET DAL PIT BUF HOU NYG ATL CHI NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 49 107
  3 14 4 16 2 12 8 1 10 15 5 9 13 7 6 11    
Miglio DET DAL IND BUF HOU NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK DEN PHI 50 106
  5 13 2 14 1 11 12 7 10 8 6 15 16 4 9 3    
Brimacombe DET DAL PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA CIN SEA NE CAR DEN PHI 50 106
  7 8 1 13 6 12 5 14 16 15 2 11 9 4 10 3    
Heiser MIN DAL PIT BUF SD NYG ATL TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE CAR KC GB 48 104
  14 13 9 6 10 12 5 8 4 7 3 2 1 16 15 11    
Wimer MIN DAL PIT JAX HOU NYG ARI TEN NO MIA BAL SEA NE OAK KC PHI 48 91
  12 11 14 10 8 7 9 15 6 13 16 5 2 4 3 1    
Away MIN WAS PIT JAX SD NYG ARI TEN LAR SF CIN SEA NE CAR KC GB    
Total Pts 47 15 160 10 62 231 10 178 0 0 14 147 209 26 24 12    
Home DET DAL IND BUF HOU CLE ATL CHI NO MIA BAL TB NYJ OAK DEN PHI    
Total Pts 62 169 9 205 35 0 130 1 181 199 102 2 0 87 67 54    

All of the scores were high this week because Seattle was the only major upset this week. Most staffers has Seattle ranked relatively low compared to some of the other heavy favorites like Buffalo, Miami or New England. Philadelphia's loss on Monday night was also an upset, but since the game has so few confidence points wagered on it, the impact was pretty minor. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Knotts climbed from 5th to second on the overall leaderboard, but he gained just one point on the overall leader Larkin. Larkin's 116 was good enough for just 7th this week, but because the teams closest to him finished lower, he extended his overall lead to almost 40 points. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin 120 104 67 64 70 79 98 63 61 46 84 116           972
Knotts 88 82 83 66 73 77 78 65 72 47 87 117           935
Hicks 64 105 69 83 62 87 78 50 63 78 87 108           934
Garda 87 98 76 71 60 60 70 58 75 84 84 109           932
Bitonti 90 64 78 67 85 79 71 69 71 59 81 118           932
Miglio 88 94 69 65 67 74 85 60 71 60 92 106           931
Tuccitto 87 92 80 66 63 75 79 68 63 53 89 107           922
Kuczynski 98 79 68 73 61 69 68 58 77 59 80 117           907
Wimer 83 90 89 80 63 79 70 64 58 59 78 91           904
Gray 85 88 58 71 53 87 76 62 69 53 88 108           898
Brimacombe 74 87 82 85 63 89 87 46 66 39 73 106           897
Mamula 79 99 46 67 78 78 70 62 63 47 91 112           892
Grant 75 84 65 74 66 65 64 59 79 61 82 114           888
Roberts 88 89 70 70 60 65 67 43 61 66 79 119           877
Pasquino 84 90 59 57 59 73 74 52 64 61 75 119           867
Feery 72 83 66 59 63 74 69 71 66 45 65 130           863
Heiser 82 55 69 68 72 86 92 58 76 38 61 104           861
Wood 86 87 45 56 66 65 92 49 68 42 73 112           841

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer DAL KC HOU SF DET MIA LAR DEN PHI BUF NYG WAS TB CAR IND MNF
  MIN ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE JAX CIN OAK PIT ARI SD SEA NYJ TOT
Miglio DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN CIN OAK PIT ARI SD SEA IND 49
  11 10 12 5 9 4 15 14 2 8 6 3 7 13 1  
Garda DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN CIN OAK PIT WAS SD SEA NYJ 40
  9 13 8 10 6 5 14 15 4 12 7 3 2 11 1  
Hicks DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN CIN OAK PIT ARI SD SEA NYJ 44
  9 8 10 6 12 5 14 15 4 7 13 3 1 11 2  
Heiser DAL KC GB SF DET MIA NE DEN PHI BUF PIT WAS TB SEA IND 42
  15 12 14 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 13 2 1  
Feery DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN CIN OAK NYG WAS SD SEA NYJ 45
  15 10 11 7 5 1 14 13 2 12 3 4 8 9 6  
Kuczynski DAL ATL GB CHI DET BAL NE DEN PHI OAK PIT ARI TB SEA IND 52
  13 5 12 1 6 4 14 15 10 9 3 2 11 7 8  
Gray DAL ATL GB SF NO BAL NE DEN CIN OAK PIT WAS TB SEA NYJ 45
  12 5 6 4 9 8 15 14 1 11 10 7 3 13 2  
Tuccitto DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN CIN OAK PIT ARI SD SEA NYJ 49
  1 8 11 5 12 4 15 9 2 6 13 7 10 14 3  
Larkin DAL KC GB SF NO BAL NE DEN CIN OAK PIT ARI TB SEA IND 41
  7 3 11 6 10 8 15 13 5 12 9 4 2 14 1  
Knotts DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN PHI OAK PIT ARI SD SEA IND 44
  5 6 14 1 15 4 13 12 3 11 10 2 7 9 8  
Brimacombe DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN PHI OAK PIT ARI SD SEA IND 47
  14 13 15 4 12 10 11 9 1 8 7 6 5 3 2  
Wood DAL ATL GB SF NO MIA NE DEN PHI OAK NYG WAS SD SEA IND 53
  15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Pasquino DAL KC GB SF NO BAL NE DEN PHI OAK PIT ARI TB SEA IND 51
  12 3 14 6 10 8 15 13 7 2 5 11 1 9 4  
Mamula DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN PHI OAK PIT ARI SD SEA IND 42
  12 6 5 2 7 11 15 10 9 8 14 1 4 13 3  
Roberts DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN PHI BUF PIT ARI TB SEA NYJ 48
  13 12 14 9 7 11 15 10 5 3 8 4 2 6 1  
Wimer DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN PHI OAK PIT WAS SD SEA IND 59
  9 8 13 7 6 12 15 14 10 5 4 3 2 11 1  
Bitonti DAL ATL GB SF NO BAL NE DEN CIN OAK PIT WAS SD SEA IND 48
  9 7 11 2 10 8 12 15 1 13 6 3 4 14 5  
Grant DAL ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE DEN PHI OAK PIT ARI SD SEA IND 47
  9 6 12 1 8 5 15 11 2 10 14 3 7 13 4  
Away DAL KC HOU SF DET MIA LAR DEN PHI BUF NYG WAS TB CAR IND  
Total Pts 190 18 0 41 16 19 0 217 60 8 8 27 32 0 39  
Home MIN ATL GB CHI NO BAL NE JAX CIN OAK PIT ARI SD SEA NYJ  
Total Pts 0 131 206 58 149 108 244 0 21 140 133 46 60 174 15  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Dallas kicks off the week as the unanimous choice for the staffers in tonight's game. Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle (despite their embarrassing loss to Tampa last week) were also chosen to win by every staffer. Oakland and Pittsburgh were also heavy favorites this week. 

DUAL SUPPORT

San Francisco at Chicago is going to be a hard game to watch this week, and the confidence pool slightly favors the home team. However, Chicago is the weakest favorite of the week. The Monday night contest between Indianapolis and the Jets has the lowest total confidence points this week with just 54 total confidence points on the entire game and Indy being a slight favorite. The Eagles at the Bengals and Tampa Bay at San Diego are also tougher games to call, with both games having less than 100 total confidence points on each. 

ODDS AND ENDS

I made a mistake last week, saying we were at full 136 points until the end of the season. This is actually the final bye week in the NFL season, and this week's max is just 120. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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