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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 2

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 2
By Will Grant, September 17, 2015

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 2
Photo: USA Today Sports

We are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 22 Staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.

WEEK 1 RESULTS

Dave Larkin was this year's first weekly winner. Despite missing both of the games on Monday night, Larkin as accumulated enough points on Thursday and Sunday to finish in 1st with a respectable 111 points. Like everyone else, Larkin missed on both Philadelphia and Seattle, but his other three mistakes were for just six combined points. In a confidence pool, it's as much about managing risk as it is picking the right winner. Despite only mising three contests this week, Justin Howe finished second with 109 points. He only lost 7 on Seattle but losing both contests on Monday cost him 20 points and he finished second this week. 

Staffer PIT GB SEA CLE CAR KC MIA IND NO DET BAL TEN CIN NYG PHI MIN MNF TOT
  NE CHI STL NYJ JAX HOU WAS BUF ARI SD DEN TB OAK DAL ATL SF TOTAL Pts
Larkin NE GB SEA NYJ CAR KC MIA BUF ARI SD DEN TB OAK DAL PHI MIN 48 111
  14 15 9 11 8 6 13 5 12 4 7 2 1 16 10 3    
Howe NE GB SEA NYJ CAR KC MIA BUF ARI SD DEN TEN CIN DAL PHI MIN 40 109
  10 15 7 14 5 13 9 1 3 4 11 2 16 6 8 12    
Grant NE GB SEA NYJ CAR HOU MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI SF 42 106
  13 16 14 10 9 3 12 7 6 5 15 4 8 11 2 1    
Haseley NE GB SEA NYJ CAR HOU MIA BUF ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 40 101
  13 15 14 12 10 1 11 4 7 3 8 5 2 16 9 6    
Buzzard NE GB SEA NYJ CAR HOU MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 37 100
  15 16 12 4 5 2 10 7 3 9 13 8 11 14 6 1    
Tuccitt NE GB SEA CLE CAR KC MIA IND ARI DET DEN TEN OAK DAL PHI SF 49 100
  16 15 12 2 10 6 11 8 7 4 13 3 1 14 9 5    
Wood NE GB SEA NYJ CAR KC MIA IND NO DET DEN TEN CIN DAL PHI MIN 43 99
  12 14 16 11 6 13 15 5 3 2 9 1 8 10 7 4    
Bitonti NE GB SEA NYJ CAR HOU MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 55 98
  16 14 13 11 9 2 12 10 7 6 5 4 3 15 8 1    
Lee NE GB SEA NYJ JAX KC MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB OAK DAL PHI MIN 40 96
  16 15 12 14 2 5 9 8 7 6 11 4 3 13 10 1    
Hindery NE GB SEA NYJ CAR HOU MIA IND NO DET DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 46 94
  14 16 11 9 5 4 15 3 1 2 13 8 10 12 6 7    
Rudnicki NE GB SEA NYJ JAX KC MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 42 93
  15 16 12 7 1 2 14 9 5 3 13 4 8 10 11 6    
Garda NE GB SEA NYJ CAR HOU MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 50 92
  15 14 13 8 7 5 12 10 2 6 16 1 3 9 11 4    
Tremblay NE GB SEA NYJ CAR HOU WAS BUF NO SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI SF 40 92
  6 15 16 2 9 10 4 3 5 7 12 1 13 14 8 11    
Holloway NE GB SEA NYJ CAR HOU MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB OAK DAL PHI MIN 45 90
  11 16 15 12 6 2 13 10 5 4 9 8 1 14 7 3    
Gray NE GB SEA NYJ JAX HOU MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 45 88
  12 16 15 8 1 2 10 14 6 3 13 7 11 9 4 5    
Pasquino NE GB SEA NYJ CAR KC MIA IND ARI DET DEN TB OAK DAL PHI MIN 41 87
  16 8 9 3 6 1 13 12 11 5 15 7 2 14 10 4    
Wimer PIT GB SEA NYJ CAR KC MIA IND ARI DET DEN TB CIN DAL PHI SF 35 86
  11 15 12 10 9 8 13 14 7 6 16 5 4 3 2 1    
Miglio NE GB SEA NYJ JAX HOU MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI SF 42 85
  16 15 14 9 6 3 13 12 8 4 10 5 7 2 11 1    
Hicks NE GB SEA NYJ JAX HOU MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 42 82
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Brimacombe NE GB SEA NYJ JAX KC MIA IND ARI DET DEN TB CIN DAL PHI MIN 45 81
  4 16 15 7 6 5 8 10 3 2 11 12 13 14 9 1    
Feery NE GB SEA NYJ JAX KC MIA IND NO SD DEN TB OAK NYG PHI MIN 41 81
  13 12 8 9 3 11 16 10 4 6 14 5 1 2 15 7    
Heiser NE GB SEA NYJ JAX KC MIA IND ARI SD DEN TB CIN NYG PHI MIN 42 72
  15 16 11 9 6 5 14 13 3 2 1 4 7 8 10 12    
Away PIT GB SEA CLE CAR KC MIA IND NO DET BAL TEN CIN NYG PHI MIN    
Total Pts 11 325 274 2 104 75 253 171 13 21 0 6 128 10 175 78    
Home NE CHI STL NYJ JAX HOU WAS BUF ARI SD DEN TB OAK DAL ATL SF    
Total Pts 278 0 0 193 37 45 4 13 110 79 241 99 9 219 0 19    

So if you're new to confidence pools, or are just finding this article for the first time, the bottom of the main table usually tells the story. With 22 hardcore football fans picking each week, you will start to see the teams that they really believe in and those that they expect to win, but wouldn't be surprised if they lost. Green Bay and New England were heavily favored by the board this week, but so was Seattle given the strength of their team and the fact that they were plaing St. Louis. The Rams pulled off a huge upset and it took down a whopping 274 confidene points. Compare that with the Eagles on Monday night. Everyone on staff picked the Eagles to win as well, but the confidence points were almost 100 points less. If you look through that column, you see a lot of single digit weights, meaning the staff was less confident in the Eagles than they were in Seattle. Rightly so it would seem. Finally, take a look at Buffalo-Indy. The field was heavily behind the Colts, but a couple guys backed the Bills instead. Notice that three of the top 4 finishers had the Bills winning that game? Had Grant picked the Bills instead of the Colts with the same 7 point wager, he would have won this week's contest. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

So aside from the weekly winners, we're going to track the overall success of each team from week to week. In any given season, a staffer might win three or four weekly games, but taking down the overall crown takes consistent weekly performance. The overall winner may not even be the top scoring team in any given week. This week's overall board just matches the table above. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin 111                                 111
Howe 109                                 109
Grant 106                                 106
Haseley 101                                 101
Tuccitt 100                                 100
Buzzard 100                                 100
Wood 99                                 99
Bitonti 98                                 98
Lee 96                                 96
Hindery 94                                 94
Rudnicki 93                                 93
Garda 92                                 92
Tremblay 92                                 92
Holloway 90                                 90
Gray 88                                 88
Pasquino 87                                 87
Wimer 86                                 86
Miglio 85                                 85
Hicks 82                                 82
Feery 81                                 81
Brimacombe 81                                 81
Heiser 72                                 72

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer DEN TEN TB NE ARI SF STL SD HOU ATL DET BAL MIA DAL SEA NYJ MNF
  KC CLE NO BUF CHI PIT WAS CIN CAR NYG MIN OAK JAX PHI GB IND TOT
Rudnicki KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN HOU NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 45
  11 10 16 8 7 12 15 5 2 4 3 13 14 6 1 9  
Miglio KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 46
  5 3 15 11 12 10 13 7 4 2 1 16 14 8 6 9  
Garda DEN TEN NO NE ARI SF STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 40
  10 11 13 9 12 8 14 7 6 5 3 15 16 2 1 4  
Hicks KC TEN NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN HOU ATL MIN OAK MIA PHI GB IND 41
  5 7 16 6 4 8 9 10 3 2 11 1 13 15 14 12  
Heiser KC TEN NO BUF CHI SF STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 42
  15 14 13 12 9 2 8 7 4 6 5 10 16 3 1 11  
Feery KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN HOU NYG MIN BAL MIA DAL GB IND 51
  11 3 16 10 9 7 15 6 4 5 8 14 13 2 1 12  
Gray KC CLE NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 41
  8 1 16 3 9 10 14 7 6 5 2 13 15 4 11 12  
Hindery KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 49
  6 3 15 4 5 12 10 8 7 2 1 16 13 11 9 14  
Tuccitt DEN TEN NO NE CHI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB NYJ 49
  2 7 16 6 5 13 10 9 8 4 3 14 15 12 11 1  
Larkin DEN CLE NO BUF CHI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 40
  13 1 16 10 3 12 9 8 7 2 4 15 14 6 5 11  
Brimacombe DEN CLE NO NE CHI PIT STL SD CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 52
  1 3 12 4 2 11 10 6 9 7 8 13 14 15 5 16  
Wood KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 47
  1 2 16 8 11 13 12 9 7 4 3 14 15 6 5 10  
Haseley KC CLE NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 47
  15 5 13 12 10 8 14 7 4 2 1 16 9 6 3 11  
Pasquino KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 47
  15 2 16 6 8 14 12 3 7 5 4 9 13 10 1 11  
Lee KC TEN NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN HOU NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 44
  9 15 16 3 7 14 4 8 1 6 2 12 13 5 10 11  
Howe KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 47
  3 11 16 5 8 6 13 12 10 9 4 15 14 2 1 7  
Wimer KC TEN NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 42
  1 14 12 8 7 9 10 6 13 5 4 15 16 3 2 11  
Bitonti KC TEN NO NE CHI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB NYJ 52
  8 12 14 11 10 9 13 16 7 5 6 3 15 4 2 1  
Tremblay KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL JAX DAL GB NYJ 45
  8 12 11 16 9 6 1 14 7 4 2 5 10 3 15 13  
Holloway KC TEN NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 39
  4 9 16 2 8 10 12 5 7 3 1 13 14 6 11 15  
Buzzard KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 46
  5 3 16 2 4 14 10 8 7 6 1 13 12 11 9 15  
Grant KC TEN NO NE CHI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 41
  6 5 14 4 1 16 13 12 9 3 2 11 15 7 10 8  
Away DEN TEN TB NE ARI SF STL SD HOU ATL DET BAL MIA DAL SEA NYJ  
Total Pts 26 143 0 116 130 10 241 6 10 43 39 265 293 5 0 15  
Home KC CLE NO BUF CHI PIT WAS CIN CAR NYG MIN OAK JAX PHI GB IND  
Total Pts 136 10 324 44 30 214 0 174 129 53 40 1 10 142 134 209  

HEAVY FAVORITES

So with a little more knowledge, this week's picks look a bit different than the week 1 selections. Despite last week's tough loss, the Saints are the most favored team this week with 324 confidence points and everyone picking them to win. St. Louis is now a universal ananimous selection to win instead of a unanimous selection to lose and Green Bay is also picked by everyone in the field, although at a significantly lower confidence weight than the other two. Cincinnati, Baltimore and Philadelphia are also strongly backed by the staffers this week. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Division rivals Detroit and Minnesota were this week's tough call. They had the lowest combined confidence points for their contest, and the Vikings only received 1 more point than the Lions this week. The Vikings are playing on a short week, but both teams really still have some questions marks which accounts for the low confidence either way. The Giants-Falcons game is also a tough call, with neither team looking impressive in their games last week. Tonight's game with Denver and KC will split the field pretty well right out of the gate. 

ODDS AND ENDS

If you have followed this series for a couple years now, you know that just 'picking the winner' of every game is not easy. In the last four seasons, it's happened only twice. There is always a game like Seattle-St.Louis where everyone, including Vegas thinks its going to go one way and it goes the opposite. Use this article as a guide to help you with your confidence pools, but don't be afraid to buck the trend if you feel strongly about a game. As you see this week, just picking one additional winner can make all the difference. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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