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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11
By Will Grant, November 19, 2015

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11
Photo: USA Today Sports

We are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 22 Staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.

WEEK 10 RESULTS

Wow. Just wow. Ugly doesn't even describe it. Week 2 of this year as really a terrible week. Week 10 blows that one away. However, despite the mountain of upsets, Bear Heiser emerged as this week's top team with six correct picks. That doesn't seem like a lot, but most teams had just three of four correct picks so Bear's six really is impressive. 51 total confidence points is a season low for the top scoring team as well. Here's a look at just how bad things were: 

Staffer BUF JAX MIA CLE CAR CHI DAL NO DET MIN KC NE ARI HOU TOT
  NYJ BAL PHI PIT TEN STL TB WAS GB OAK DEN NYG SEA CIN Pts
Heiser NYJ JAX PHI PIT CAR CHI TB NO GB OAK DEN NYG ARI CIN 51
  12 11 10 9 14 8 7 6 13 5 4 3 2 1  
Tremblay NYJ JAX PHI PIT CAR STL TB NO GB OAK DEN NE ARI CIN 47
  2 3 4 14 7 12 8 1 10 5 11 9 6 13  
Pasquino NYJ JAX PHI PIT CAR STL TB NO GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 44
  8 14 4 6 10 9 2 5 11 3 7 12 1 13  
Howe BUF BAL PHI PIT CAR STL TB WAS GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 40
  2 5 6 8 12 10 3 1 13 7 9 14 4 11  
Larkin NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR CHI TB WAS GB MIN DEN NE ARI CIN 39
  9 11 7 10 6 4 5 1 14 2 12 8 3 13  
Wood NYJ JAX PHI PIT CAR CHI TB NO GB OAK DEN NE ARI CIN 39
  6 1 9 5 11 2 3 8 12 4 13 10 7 14  
Hicks BUF BAL MIA PIT CAR STL TB WAS GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 38
  1 14 2 6 13 12 3 4 11 5 10 9 8 7  
Garda NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL TB NO GB OAK DEN NE ARI CIN 36
  9 2 8 7 12 5 4 6 13 1 11 10 3 14  
Lee NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL TB NO GB OAK DEN NE ARI CIN 36
  6 3 4 10 12 8 2 7 14 5 9 11 1 13  
Haseley NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL DAL WAS GB MIN DEN NE SEA CIN 34
  7 9 8 6 11 3 2 1 13 4 10 12 5 14  
Tuccitto NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL DAL NO GB OAK DEN NE ARI CIN 33
  2 7 8 6 12 9 3 1 14 5 10 11 4 13  
Wimer NYJ JAX PHI PIT CAR STL DAL NO GB OAK DEN NE ARI CIN 33
  7 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 12 13 8 9 11 14  
Miglio NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL TB WAS GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 31
  9 8 7 6 10 5 2 1 14 4 13 12 3 11  
Feery NYJ BAL MIA PIT CAR STL DAL NO GB OAK DEN NE ARI CIN 31
  10 3 1 9 11 8 2 7 14 5 12 6 4 13  
Brimacombe NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL TB NO GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 31
  6 7 5 4 14 8 3 2 13 1 9 10 11 12  
Grant NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL DAL NO GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 29
  3 7 9 4 12 8 1 6 11 5 10 13 2 14  
Holloway NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL DAL NO GB OAK DEN NE ARI CIN 29
  3 2 8 9 12 5 4 10 13 6 11 7 1 14  
Rudnicki BUF BAL PHI PIT CAR STL TB NO GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 28
  2 9 8 4 11 5 1 7 14 3 12 10 6 13  
Gray NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL DAL NO GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 28
  6 5 8 7 11 9 1 2 13 4 12 10 3 14  
Hindery NYJ BAL MIA PIT CAR STL DAL NO GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 28
  4 9 3 7 8 11 2 1 13 5 12 10 6 14  
Buzzard NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL TB NO GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 26
  4 9 10 6 7 11 1 3 14 5 8 12 2 13  
Bitonti NYJ BAL PHI PIT CAR STL DAL NO GB OAK DEN NE SEA CIN 22
  1 8 10 6 5 7 2 9 12 4 13 11 3 14  
Away BUF JAX MIA CLE CAR CHI DAL NO DET MIN KC NE ARI HOU  
Total Pts 5 35 6 0 224 14 18 91 0 6 0 216 42 0  
Home NYJ BAL PHI PIT TEN STL TB WAS GB OAK DEN NYG SEA CIN  
Total Pts 114 118 138 153 0 147 44 8 281 95 226 3 54 272  

1419 total confidence points were lost with the upsets of last week. Forget 'Against the Spread' - 10 of the Las Vegas (and FBG) favorites were upset straight up. Green Bay, Denver and Cincinnati were the hardest lossess to take for the field, but there were plenty of upsets to go around. Two weeks ago, Matt Bitonti was the top scoring team. This week he had just three correct picks for 22 points. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Despite his 33 point performance, Tuccitto held on to the top spot on the overall board. Larkin climbed back into second place and Howe moved up into third. Bitonti's performance dropped him all the way down to sixth place. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Tuccitto 100 54 117 89 88 66 81 84 55 33               767
Larkin 111 50 120 89 74 75 68 79 60 39               765
Howe 109 42 112 92 84 66 91 81 41 40               758
Wood 99 60 125 91 80 85 75 60 39 39               753
Miglio 85 51 121 87 81 74 72 86 63 31               751
Bitonti 98 52 125 76 79 76 74 91 56 22               749
Buzzard 100 45 114 96 75 72 81 85 52 26               746
Grant 106 51 117 88 76 68 72 88 49 29               744
Rudnicki 93 33 130 88 85 73 75 82 53 28               740
Haseley 101 49 117 87 83 64 72 63 59 34               729
Gray 88 46 128 83 70 82 79 83 41 28               728
Garda 92 50 120 97 78 73 61 72 48 36               727
Tremblay 92 95 80 78 75 49 70 88 50 47               724
Hicks 82 50 135 78 71 66 83 70 48 38               721
Pasquino 87 44 124 82 76 65 77 69 46 44               714
Holloway 90 45 124 88 75 76 68 78 40 29               713
Lee 96 39 101 96 82 71 63 72 56 36               712
Hindery 94 48 115 93 74 65 83 78 33 28               711
Feery 81 43 114 95 89 51 70 71 50 31               695
Wimer 86 42 95 89 79 68 79 68 52 33               691
Brimacombe 81 40 117 72 72 74 71 64 57 31               679
Heiser 72 18 98 93 70 65 64 82 51 51               664

Don't look now - but Heiser has made a serious comeback and is about to climb out of the basement. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer TEN STL IND WAS NYJ TB OAK DAL DEN KC SF GB CIN BUF MNF
  JAX BAL ATL CAR HOU PHI DET MIA CHI SD SEA MIN ARI NE TOT
Rudnicki JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK MIA CHI KC SEA GB ARI NE 46
  12 1 11 13 4 10 6 3 2 9 14 5 7 8  
Miglio JAX BAL ATL CAR HOU PHI DET MIA DEN KC SEA GB ARI NE 42
  10 6 11 14 5 7 4 3 9 2 13 1 8 12  
Garda JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK DAL DEN KC SEA MIN ARI NE 50
  1 11 10 12 8 9 2 4 3 5 7 6 13 14  
Hicks JAX STL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK MIA CHI SD SEA MIN CIN NE 58
  4 6 3 8 7 14 9 5 2 10 13 12 1 11  
Heiser JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI DET MIA CHI SD SEA GB ARI NE 54
  12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 14 2 1 13  
Feery JAX STL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK DAL CHI KC SEA MIN CIN NE 48
  3 8 10 14 9 4 6 5 7 11 13 2 1 12  
Gray JAX STL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK DAL CHI SD SEA MIN ARI NE 52
  11 2 9 13 3 10 5 6 7 1 14 4 8 12  
Hindery JAX BAL ATL CAR HOU PHI OAK DAL CHI KC SEA MIN ARI NE 47
  8 7 11 12 2 10 6 4 3 9 14 1 5 13  
Tuccitto JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK DAL DEN KC SEA MIN ARI NE 49
  4 3 7 12 8 11 6 1 5 10 14 2 9 13  
Larkin JAX BAL IND CAR NYJ PHI DET MIA DEN KC SEA MIN CIN NE 45
  11 10 2 12 8 9 4 5 6 7 14 3 1 13  
Brimacombe JAX BAL ATL CAR HOU PHI DET MIA DEN SD SEA GB ARI NE 52
  1 10 9 11 8 12 2 3 4 5 6 7 13 14  
Wood JAX STL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK DAL CHI KC SEA GB ARI NE 46
  14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Haseley JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK MIA DEN KC SEA MIN ARI NE 49
  8 9 7 11 4 12 3 2 10 1 14 5 6 13  
Pasquino JAX STL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK DAL DEN KC SEA MIN ARI NE 51
  9 3 10 12 11 8 4 2 6 5 13 1 7 14  
Lee JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK MIA DEN SD SEA GB ARI NE 48
  9 6 11 13 4 10 7 3 2 1 14 5 8 12  
Howe TEN STL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK DAL DEN SD SEA MIN ARI NE 48
  2 3 10 12 11 4 7 6 9 5 14 1 8 13  
Wimer JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK MIA CHI KC SEA GB ARI NE 66
  9 8 7 6 5 11 10 4 3 2 14 1 13 12  
Bitonti JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK MIA CHI KC SEA MIN ARI NE 62
  10 9 11 13 3 1 8 6 7 5 12 4 2 14  
Tremblay JAX STL ATL CAR NYJ TB OAK MIA DEN KC SEA MIN ARI NE 44
  5 3 12 13 10 1 6 2 8 7 14 4 11 9  
Holloway JAX STL ATL CAR HOU PHI OAK DAL DEN SD SEA GB ARI NE 44
  6 5 8 12 3 7 9 1 4 2 13 10 11 14  
Buzzard JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK MIA DEN KC SEA MIN ARI NE 46
  7 5 11 12 6 10 4 2 1 8 14 3 9 13  
Grant JAX BAL ATL CAR NYJ PHI OAK DAL DEN KC SEA GB ARI NE 44
  11 2 10 14 9 4 8 3 7 6 13 1 5 12  
Away TEN STL IND WAS NYJ TB OAK DAL DEN KC SF GB CIN BUF  
Total Pts 2 43 2 0 128 1 114 39 74 92 0 35 3 0  
Home JAX BAL ATL CAR HOU PHI DET MIA CHI SD SEA MIN ARI NE  
Total Pts 165 98 200 259 18 179 16 43 41 27 275 48 146 262  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Despite the disaster of last week, there were several teams that emerged as strong favorites. Carolina, Seattle and New England were all unaminous choices by the entire board and all of them had more than 250 confidence points each. Jacksonville, Arizona, Philadelphia, and Atlanta were also heavily favored by most of the staff. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Green Bay's slide has caused a lot of people to lose confidence in them. Three weeks ago, they would probably be a heavy favorite against Minnesota this week. Instead, the Vikings are a slight favorite. This week's toughest game to pick was Dallas (with Tony Romo back) on the road in Miami. This game had just 82 total confidence points placed on it with Miami just a four point faorite. Denver at Chicago and St.Louis at Baltimore are also game to consider moving down you confidence board. 

ODDS AND ENDS

This is the final week of the NFL byes with four teams taking a much needed rest. 105 is the maximum possible score, and next week we'll be back to 136 as we sprint to the finish. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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