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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 2

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 2
By Will Grant, September 11, 2014

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 2
Photo: USA Today Sports

We are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 20 Staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.

WEEK 1 RESULTS

Bear Heiser may be new to the FBG staff and new to the confidence pool, but that didn't stop him from crushing everyone in the opening week. Going into the Arizona - San Diego game, Heiser had the contest locked up and he would have won, no matter the outcome. His 12 correct picks were the best of the group as well, giving him a solid win in week 1. Well done. 

StafferGBBUFOAKTENMINJAXWASCLENECINNOCARSFINDNYGSDTOT
SEACHINYJKCSTLPHIHOUPITMIABALATLTBDALDENDETARIPts
Heiser SEA CHI NYJ TEN MIN PHI HOU PIT NE CIN NO CAR SF DEN DET SD 98
5 16 9 4 1 15 8 14 13 3 7 6 12 11 10 2
Hindery SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI HOU PIT NE CIN NO CAR SF DEN DET ARI 95
9 15 10 3 2 16 6 11 13 4 8 7 5 12 14 1
Grant SEA CHI NYJ KC MIN PHI HOU PIT NE BAL NO CAR SF DEN DET ARI 94
15 13 7 9 1 16 5 12 10 4 6 3 8 14 11 2
Miglio SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI HOU PIT NE BAL ATL TB SF DEN DET ARI 91
12 13 15 9 6 16 10 14 8 4 1 5 11 7 3 2
Larkin SEA CHI NYJ KC MIN PHI HOU PIT NE BAL ATL TB SF DEN DET SD 91
13 16 12 11 6 14 2 15 9 3 4 5 8 10 7 1
Lee SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI WAS PIT NE BAL ATL TB SF DEN DET ARI 87
9 15 7 10 5 16 1 14 8 4 2 6 11 12 13 3
Bitonti SEA CHI NYJ KC MIN PHI WAS PIT NE CIN NO TB SF DEN DET ARI 87
12 13 11 14 3 15 2 10 7 1 8 5 6 16 9 4
Buzzard SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI HOU PIT NE BAL NO TB SF DEN DET ARI 87
12 15 7 8 5 16 2 14 11 3 6 1 9 13 10 4
Rudnicki SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI HOU PIT NE CIN NO TB SF DEN DET SD 86
9 15 12 10 2 16 5 14 13 4 6 3 7 11 8 1
Pasquino SEA CHI NYJ KC MIN PHI HOU PIT NE BAL NO CAR SF DEN DET ARI 85
11 15 7 13 1 16 3 14 10 4 9 2 8 5 12 6
Wood SEA CHI NYJ TEN STL PHI WAS PIT NE CIN NO TB SF DEN DET SD 82
13 14 15 2 5 16 1 10 12 8 11 4 9 6 3 7
Haseley SEA CHI NYJ KC MIN PHI WAS PIT NE BAL NO CAR SF DEN DET ARI 81
3 11 14 13 12 15 8 4 10 6 7 2 9 16 5 1
Gray SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI HOU PIT NE BAL ATL TB SF DEN DET ARI 80
11 14 13 12 4 16 3 10 15 6 2 5 1 9 8 7
Holloway SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI HOU PIT NE BAL NO TB SF DEN DET SD 78
6 16 9 13 3 15 4 14 11 5 7 2 8 12 10 1
Wimer GB CHI NYJ KC STL PHI HOU PIT NE CIN NO CAR SF DEN DET ARI 78
8 9 16 10 7 14 6 12 13 5 11 4 3 15 2 1
Hicks SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI WAS PIT NE CIN NO TB DAL DEN DET ARI 77
12 16 15 10 13 14 1 11 4 6 5 7 3 8 9 2
Brimacombe SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI WAS PIT NE CIN NO CAR SF DEN DET SD 76
8 15 11 12 9 16 7 13 10 5 6 4 3 14 2 1
Cummings SEA CHI OAK TEN STL PHI HOU PIT NE BAL NO TB SF DEN DET SD 75
9 16 4 3 7 15 8 11 14 1 12 2 6 10 13 5
Garda SEA CHI NYJ KC MIN PHI WAS PIT NE CIN NO CAR SF DEN DET ARI 73
5 16 10 15 6 14 13 11 12 4 7 3 2 8 9 1
Tremblay SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI WAS PIT NE CIN NO CAR SF DEN DET SD 68
14 16 13 15 1 9 6 7 12 5 10 4 3 11 2 8
Away GB BUF OAK TEN MIN JAX WAS CLE NE CIN NO CAR SF IND NYG SD  
Total Pts 8 0 4 9 30 0 39 0 215 45 126 35 129 0 0 26  
Home SEA CHI NYJ KC STL PHI HOU PIT MIA BAL ATL TB DAL DEN DET ARI  
Total Pts 188 289 213 187 69 300 62 235 0 40 9 45 3 220 160 34  

If you thought it was easy to just 'pick the winner' of the game, even avoiding the spread, this week should tell you why it's not as simple as it looks. Chicago, Kansas City and New England were heavy favorites both in Las Vegas and in our confidence pool. All three took down a ton of confidence points with their upset losses. The Saints also did some serious damage to the field. Tremblay and Garda took the brunt of the losses this week, with heavy confidence points on all of those games. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

The impact of a tough picking week is that the top teams don't get out to a huge lead early in the season. Although Heiser had 12 correct picks this week, he still lost a lot of points on Chicago and New England. Only 30 points separates the top spot from the bottom after Week 1. 

StafferWk01Wk02Wk03Wk04Wk05Wk06Wk07Wk08Wk09Wk10Wk11Wk12Wk13Wk14Wk15Wk16Wk17Total
Heiser 98                                 98
Hindery 95                                 95
Grant 94                                 94
Miglio 91                                 91
Larkin 91                                 91
Lee 87                                 87
Bitonti 87                                 87
Buzzard 87                                 87
Rudnicki 86                                 86
Pasquino 85                                 85
Wood 82                                 82
Haseley 81                                 81
Gray 80                                 80
Holloway 78                                 78
Wimer 78                                 78
Hicks 77                                 77
Brimacombe 76                                 76
Cummings 75                                 75
Garda 73                                 73
Tremblay 68                                 68

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

StafferPITDETATLNEDALJAXARIMIANOSTLSEAKCNYJHOUCHIPHIMNF
BALCARCINMINTENWASNYGBUFCLETBSDDENGBOAKSFINDTOTAL
Rudnicki PIT DET CIN NE TEN WAS NYG BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF IND 55
8 4 10 11 7 3 2 6 13 5 14 16 15 9 12 1
Miglio PIT CAR CIN NE TEN WAS ARI BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF IND 53
7 4 3 8 10 5 9 2 11 15 14 16 13 6 12 1
Garda PIT DET CIN NE TEN JAX ARI MIA NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF PHI 40
4 10 8 6 9 2 12 1 15 14 13 16 5 3 11 7
Hicks BAL CAR CIN MIN TEN WAS ARI BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB OAK SF IND 61
5 7 9 11 10 13 14 6 15 3 8 16 12 1 4 2
Heiser PIT DET ATL NE TEN JAX ARI MIA NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF IND 62
5 1 2 9 10 8 11 3 16 12 13 15 14 6 4 7
Gray BAL CAR ATL NE DAL WAS ARI BUF NO TB SD DEN GB HOU SF IND 53
11 10 4 9 2 8 5 7 13 14 1 15 16 3 12 6
Hindery BAL CAR CIN NE DAL WAS ARI MIA NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF PHI 51
2 3 10 12 1 5 8 7 14 11 13 16 15 9 6 4
Larkin PIT CAR CIN NE TEN WAS ARI BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB OAK SF PHI 73
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Cummings BAL DET CIN NE TEN WAS ARI MIA NO STL SEA DEN GB HOU SF IND 54
5 8 7 10 4 3 6 1 11 2 15 16 14 12 13 9
Brimacombe PIT DET CIN NE TEN WAS NYG BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF PHI 53
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Wood BAL DET CIN NE DAL WAS ARI MIA NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF PHI 59
2 5 12 15 9 4 10 7 3 6 8 14 13 11 16 1
Haseley BAL CAR CIN NE TEN WAS ARI BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF PHI 51
5 3 2 4 11 6 10 9 14 1 12 16 13 8 15 7
Pasquino BAL DET CIN NE TEN JAX ARI MIA NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF IND 65
4 10 13 8 5 1 7 9 12 3 11 16 14 6 15 2
Lee BAL DET ATL MIN TEN WAS ARI BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB OAK SF IND 55
3 9 7 4 8 10 6 1 13 12 14 15 16 2 11 5
Wimer PIT DET ATL MIN TEN JAX ARI BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF PHI 73
10 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 11 12 14 16 15 8 13 1
Bitonti PIT CAR CIN NE TEN WAS NYG BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF PHI 62
5 2 7 9 10 6 3 4 8 12 15 11 16 13 14 1
Tremblay PIT DET CIN MIN TEN JAX ARI MIA NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF PHI 50
7 6 5 2 8 3 16 4 13 10 12 15 14 9 11 1
Holloway PIT DET CIN NE TEN WAS ARI BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB OAK SF IND 64
4 5 3 11 9 8 7 2 14 12 13 16 15 1 10 6
Buzzard BAL CAR CIN NE TEN WAS ARI MIA NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF IND 55
2 4 10 6 8 14 3 1 15 11 9 16 12 7 13 5
Grant PIT DET CIN NE TEN WAS ARI BUF NO TB SEA DEN GB HOU SF IND 52
6 10 11 9 8 2 7 1 12 3 14 16 15 4 13 5
Away PIT DET ATL NE DAL JAX ARI MIA NO STL SEA KC NYJ HOU CHI PHI  
Total Pts 88 92 20 153 12 18 144 33 239 2 224 0 0 117 0 24  
Home BAL CAR CIN MIN TEN WAS NYG BUF CLE TB SD DEN GB OAK SF IND  
Total Pts 39 48 138 23 146 109 15 58 0 170 1 287 255 7 209 49  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Denver drew the most confidence points this week with the entire field betting heavily that they will push Kansas City to an 0-2 start. New Orleans drew support from everyone as well despite thier Week 1 loss to Atlanta. Green Bay and San Francisco were the only other teams to get complete support from the entire field.  Cummings was the only staffer to back St. Louis this week, 2012 Overall winner Clayton Gray was the only team to pick San Diego with just one confidence point and a handful of staffers tossed a point or two at Oakland to upset the Texans this week. 

DUAL SUPPORT

The Monday night contest between Philadelphia and Indianapolis looks to be the toughest game to call. Indy received about twice the support that the Eagles did, but with 73 total confidence points between the two, it was this week's least confident game. Buffalo is a slight favorite over division rival Miami as well, but neither team received a ton of points. While Pittsburgh is the favorite for tonight's winner, Baltimore managed to pull a few staffers to their side as well. Carolina received a few points, but Detroit was the favorite here despite the short week. 

ODDS AND ENDS

If you league allows you to change your picks any time before the game starts, this is a good week to take advantage of that. Several games have key players who may or may not play as of Wednesday night and that definitely impacted how people picked these games and the confidence points that they wagered on them. Always check the injury reports and updates to make sure you have the latest information. 

If you're new to this series at FBG, you might be surprised to see that even guys who are heavy football fans have a tough time picking the winner of every game. In three years, it's happened just twice. There's always some type of upset on any given Sunday. With that in mind, it often comes down to how much confidence you put behing your picks to determine who wins from week to week. Take last week as an example. Although Heiser had 12 correct picks, he could easily have missed out on the top spot had he put a few more points on the Saints as several of the other staffers did. If a game looks to go either way, there's no harm in taking a chance on an underdog. Just make sure to manage your confidence points accordingly. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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