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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 16

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 16
By Will Grant, December 18, 2014

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 16
Photo: USA Today Sports

We are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 20 Staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Mark Wimer was the only staffer to back Arizona this week. It paid off when they upset the Rams on Thursday Night and by the time the Saints finished the Bears on Monday Night, Wimer was on top of the pile. He missed only two games this week and managed his risk well enough to edge out Bitonti by a point. Bitonti missed three games, including one on the Browns which ultimately cost him the weekly win. 

Staffer ARI OAK MIA PIT HOU WAS CIN JAX TB GB NYJ DEN SF MIN DAL NO TOT
STL KC NE ATL IND NYG CLE BAL CAR BUF TEN SD SEA DET PHI CHI Pts
Wimer ARI KC NE PIT IND NYG CIN BAL CAR GB TEN DEN SEA DET DAL NO 120
  10 14 13 9 12 8 7 15 6 11 5 4 3 2 16 1  
Bitonti STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CLE BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET DAL NO 119
  7 14 15 8 13 12 1 16 4 9 5 6 10 11 2 3  
Hindery STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CIN BAL TB GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 114
  7 14 10 2 12 13 3 16 1 8 4 9 15 11 6 5  
Buzzard STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CLE BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 114
  7 15 11 3 12 10 1 16 6 9 2 8 13 14 5 4  
Holloway STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CLE BAL CAR GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI NO 112
  6 12 14 3 10 9 1 16 7 11 2 8 15 13 4 5  
Wood STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CIN BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 111
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Miglio STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CIN BAL CAR GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI NO 110
  3 9 13 10 6 4 11 16 2 15 1 8 14 12 7 5  
Cummings STL KC NE ATL IND NYG CIN BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI CHI 109
  5 14 12 2 13 10 4 16 9 11 1 7 8 15 6 3  
Gray STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CLE BAL TB GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI NO 107
  2 15 13 3 11 12 7 16 1 6 4 8 14 10 9 5  
Haseley STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CLE BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI CHI 105
  14 11 16 9 8 15 3 13 4 7 2 5 12 10 6 1  
Hicks STL KC NE ATL IND NYG CIN BAL CAR GB NYJ SD SEA DET DAL CHI 104
  7 14 15 6 8 16 9 13 10 12 4 5 11 1 3 2  
Lee STL KC NE ATL IND NYG CLE BAL TB GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 104
  8 15 13 4 14 6 2 16 5 12 7 9 11 10 1 3  
Rudnicki STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CIN BAL TB GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 103
  11 12 13 7 14 9 4 15 1 16 2 6 10 8 5 3  
Garda STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CLE BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 102
  8 6 16 14 11 5 1 12 3 15 2 13 4 9 10 7  
Pasquino STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CLE BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 100
  2 8 5 4 10 3 15 16 12 6 11 1 9 7 13 14  
Larkin STL KC NE ATL IND NYG CLE BAL CAR GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI NO 99
  11 9 15 3 12 14 8 16 7 5 4 2 13 10 6 1  
Tremblay STL KC NE PIT IND WAS CLE BAL CAR GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI CHI 96
  9 14 5 3 8 7 6 16 10 2 11 12 15 13 4 1  
Brimacombe STL KC NE PIT IND NYG CLE BAL CAR GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI NO 95
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Grant STL KC NE ATL IND NYG CIN BAL CAR GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI NO 95
  6 1 9 4 12 13 8 14 7 3 15 2 5 11 10 16  
Heiser STL KC NE ATL IND NYG CLE JAX TB GB NYJ DEN SEA DET DAL CHI 72
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Away ARI OAK MIA PIT HOU WAS CIN JAX TB GB NYJ DEN SF MIN DAL NO  
Total Pts 10 0 0 101 0 7 56 9 16 179 52 123 0 0 23 74  
Home STL KC NE ATL IND NYG CLE BAL CAR BUF TEN SD SEA DET PHI CHI  
Total Pts 161 242 250 32 222 192 65 276 103 0 48 5 194 176 96 8  

The Rams loss on Thursday night hurt everyone except Wimer. Green Bay’s loss to the Bills cost everyone a lot of points as well. Heiser and Grant took a couple chances this week, but they did not work out and they finished at the bottom of the weekly chart.

OVERALL RANKINGS

Hindery and Buzzard tied this week, both posting 114 points. Miglio fell farther off the pace, even though he had an impressive 110 points this week. Bitonti is making a late charge, posting 119 points this week but it’s too little too late. Miglio still has an outside shot being just 20 points out of the top spot, but he’ll need a big miss by Hindery and Buzzard to have a shot. 

Staffer W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 Total
Hindery 95 85 115 47 103 87 92 71 68 70 56 106 104 94 114     1307
Buzzard 87 74 95 54 105 87 94 93 71 74 57 103 97 97 114     1302
Miglio 91 66 102 50 108 79 79 83 73 74 63 98 111 100 110     1287
Bitonti 87 69 104 65 94 82 82 83 69 67 53 100 97 104 119     1275
Cummings 75 75 121 53 93 91 71 77 62 67 58 111 95 113 109     1271
Haseley 81 83 120 48 92 98 86 81 60 74 55 98 94 91 105     1266
Gray 80 87 108 40 101 88 89 79 61 76 52 101 102 94 107     1265
Holloway 78 62 107 44 106 89 85 85 74 71 56 102 90 101 112     1262
Larkin 91 82 110 60 100 79 84 86 63 63 50 96 97 101 99     1261
Rudnicki 86 70 97 49 100 85 88 77 69 67 50 101 112 104 103     1258
Grant 94 65 95 58 102 90 77 87 69 66 60 94 102 100 95     1254
Pasquino 85 68 100 49 96 96 76 77 73 75 64 89 95 100 100     1243
Wood 82 91 94 37 72 91 70 88 70 72 62 86 105 102 111     1233
Garda 73 57 102 48 110 95 73 88 78 71 52 85 80 116 102     1230
Lee 87 51 108 50 105 88 81 87 57 68 60 105 82 93 104     1226
Brimacombe 76 60 111 39 93 97 68 78 69 75 49 102 91 79 95     1182
Wimer 78 45 91 44 103 91 78 82 68 65 41 85 82 94 120     1167
Hicks 77 82 98 48 82 75 69 74 66 37 45 81 97 101 104     1136
Tremblay 68 60 77 39 66 54 81 107 57 66 38 104 103 70 96     1086
Heiser 98 55 99 42 97 96 76 60 51 72 57 69 46 88 72     1078

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer TEN PHI SD NE MIN DET ATL BAL GB KC CLE NYG IND BUF SEA DEN MNF
JAX WAS SF NYJ MIA CHI NO HOU TB PIT CAR STL DAL OAK ARI CIN TOTAL
Rudnicki JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN 45
  11 14 10 16 6 12 5 13 15 4 3 2 1 7 9 8  
Miglio JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL DAL BUF SEA DEN 54
  13 15 5 14 3 11 9 6 16 8 7 2 1 4 12 10  
Garda JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN 75
  10 5 2 8 11 16 9 6 15 4 1 7 3 14 13 12  
Hicks JAX PHI SF NE MIN DET ATL BAL GB KC CAR STL DAL BUF SEA DEN 47
  9 3 13 2 14 4 16 6 1 15 11 8 12 5 10 7  
Heiser JAX PHI SF NE MIA CHI ATL BAL GB PIT CLE NYG IND BUF SEA DEN 60
  14 13 12 11 10 16 15 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Gray JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN 49
  4 13 1 16 12 11 10 7 15 2 5 8 6 14 3 9  
Hindery JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN 44
  8 13 1 16 9 10 7 6 15 4 2 12 3 11 14 5  
Larkin JAX PHI SD NE MIN DET NO BAL GB PIT CLE STL DAL OAK SEA CIN 45
  11 13 7 16 6 12 10 9 15 14 2 8 5 1 4 3  
Cummings JAX PHI SF NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN 52
  2 14 8 16 10 13 9 1 15 12 5 4 7 3 6 11  
Brimacombe JAX PHI SD NE MIA CHI ATL HOU GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN 52
  9 16 2 10 11 1 8 7 12 6 5 4 13 14 15 3  
Wood JAX PHI SD NE MIN DET NO BAL GB KC CAR NYG IND BUF SEA DEN 45
  2 16 8 15 3 13 11 9 14 1 4 5 6 7 12 10  
Haseley JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL DAL BUF SEA DEN 47
  14 15 8 13 12 11 10 7 16 9 3 5 1 6 2 4  
Pasquino JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN 54
  12 9 4 13 1 3 6 16 14 8 2 10 11 5 15 7  
Lee JAX PHI SF NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL DAL BUF SEA DEN 47
  5 11 1 8 14 13 6 9 16 3 10 12 2 7 15 4  
Wimer JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR NYG DAL BUF SEA DEN 52
  8 14 7 13 6 12 9 5 15 4 16 3 2 1 10 11  
Bitonti JAX PHI SF NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR NYG IND BUF SEA DEN 49
  4 11 2 9 15 13 14 12 16 5 6 3 1 8 10 7  
Tremblay TEN PHI SF NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CLE STL DAL BUF SEA DEN 43
  7 3 6 8 9 16 10 2 14 1 4 13 5 15 12 11  
Holloway JAX PHI SF NE MIA DET NO HOU GB PIT CAR STL DAL BUF SEA DEN 52
  4 15 2 16 11 13 9 1 14 10 6 5 3 12 7 8  
Buzzard JAX PHI SF NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL DAL BUF SEA DEN 49
  4 13 2 16 11 14 8 9 15 3 6 7 1 10 12 5  
Grant JAX PHI SF NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN 51
  6 11 4 16 10 14 13 9 15 3 2 8 7 1 12 5  
Away TEN PHI SD NE MIN DET ATL BAL GB KC CLE NYG IND BUF SEA DEN  
Total Pts 7 237 55 252 23 211 39 141 276 16 12 16 62 147 195 138  
Home JAX WAS SF NYJ MIA CHI NO HOU TB PIT CAR STL DAL OAK ARI CIN  
Total Pts 150 0 50 0 161 17 155 8 0 107 94 115 32 1 0 3  

HEAVY FAVORITES

The Patriots, Packers and Eagles are this week’s top picks. All three were picked by everyone to win and all three had more than 235 confidence points wagered on them. The Seahawks were the only other team that everyone picked to win, but with a few less confidence points. Tonight, the Jaguars are a strong favorite to beat the Titans, but Tremblay picked the Titans to pull it out. Larkin took a couple chances this week, and he was the only staffer to pick the Raiders to beat Buffalo and the Bengals to beat Denver. Houston has a few backers against the Ravens, but the Ravens are still a strong favorite.  

DUAL SUPPORT

The San Diego and San Francisco is this week’s closest game. The Chargers have a slight lead with 55 confidence points compared to San Francisco’s 50. Indianapolis and Dallas actually drew the fewest combined confidence points, but the Colts are almost a two-to-one favorite. 

ODDS AND ENDS

Looking at the top three teams, there are a couple games that could impact the overall standings.

Staffer TEN PHI SD NE MIN DET ATL BAL GB KC CLE NYG IND BUF SEA DEN
JAX WAS SF NYJ MIA CHI NO HOU TB PIT CAR STL DAL OAK ARI CIN
Hindery JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL IND BUF SEA DEN
  8 13 1 16 9 10 7 6 15 4 2 12 3 11 14 5
Buzzard JAX PHI SF NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL DAL BUF SEA DEN
  4 13 2 16 11 14 8 9 15 3 6 7 1 10 12 5
Miglio JAX PHI SD NE MIA DET NO BAL GB PIT CAR STL DAL BUF SEA DEN
  13 15 5 14 3 11 9 6 16 8 7 2 1 4 12 10

Buzzard was the only one of the three to pick the 49ers to be San Diego and Hindery picked the Colts to beat the Cowboys.  But since no one risked a lot of points either way, there will not be much of an impact.

While all three staffers picked the Jaguars to win, Miglio risked a lot more points than the others. A loss by the Jaguars would hurt him more than the others. However, Miglio risked a lot fewer points on the Dolphins and the Bills than the other two did. If Buffalo and Miami lose, Miglio will actually be able to close the gap on the leaders. The St. Louis game represents an interesting mix. Miglio risked the fewest points with only two and Hindery risked the most with 12. A Loss by the Rams would have a very different impact on the top teams. 

If you are in the hunt for the top spot of your office pool, you're going to have to think about how you pick things compared the people who are also in the hunt. This may take a bit of guessing on your part, but with just two weeks to go, if you zig when they zag, it can give you that little extra boost to take home the top spot. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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