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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 14

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 14
By Will Grant, December 4, 2014

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 14
Photo: USA Today Sports

We are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 20 Staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Aaron Rudnicki finished at the top of the leaderboard this week, missing just three games and posting an impressive 112 points. He narrowly edged out Miglio who missed four games and posted just 111 points. Both staffers missed Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but Arizona cost Miglio 15 confidence points and the extra point he lost on the 49ers cost him the top spot. Wood finished 3rd despite missing six games, but since he didn't risk a lot of points on any of them, it didn't hurt him as much. 

Staffer CHI PHI SEA NYG CLE NO WAS OAK CIN TEN CAR SD ARI NE DEN MIA TOT
DET DAL SF JAX BUF PIT IND STL TB HOU MIN BAL ATL GB KC NYJ Pts
Rudnicki DET PHI SEA NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ATL GB DEN MIA 112
  11 2 6 8 4 9 16 14 10 13 5 7 1 3 15 12  
Miglio DET PHI SF JAX BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 111
  13 2 1 4 5 3 16 14 12 11 10 6 15 7 8 9  
Wood DET PHI SEA NYG CLE PIT IND STL CIN TEN CAR SD ATL NE DEN MIA 105
  13 10 9 8 6 5 16 11 12 1 4 3 2 7 15 14  
Hindery DET DAL SEA NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ATL GB DEN MIA 104
  8 5 4 10 3 11 16 13 12 14 2 6 1 7 9 15  
Tremblay DET DAL SEA JAX BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 103
  15 8 3 13 4 9 1 6 7 5 10 14 2 12 16 10  
Grant DET DAL SF NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 102
  15 8 1 9 7 3 16 14 10 13 6 11 2 5 4 12  
Gray DET DAL SEA NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI NE DEN MIA 102
  10 2 3 7 11 5 16 9 12 14 8 13 6 1 4 15  
Hicks DET DAL SEA JAX BUF PIT IND OAK CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 97
  12 5 9 11 8 16 2 1 15 4 13 3 14 7 10 6  
Larkin DET PHI SEA NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ATL GB KC MIA 97
  12 2 4 15 9 13 16 14 8 11 5 10 3 6 1 7  
Bitonti DET DAL SF NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 97
  13 3 1 8 5 11 15 14 12 9 7 6 10 4 2 16  
Buzzard DET DAL SF NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 97
  14 7 1 5 3 9 16 15 10 12 2 11 6 8 4 13  
Pasquino DET PHI SEA NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN TEN MIN BAL ARI NE DEN MIA 95
  9 12 13 16 15 3 10 7 5 1 2 4 6 11 14 8  
Cummings DET PHI SEA NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU CAR BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 95
  14 11 10 13 8 9 16 7 12 6 1 3 15 2 4 5  
Haseley DET DAL SEA NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI GB KC MIA 94
  10 5 11 8 1 14 16 15 13 7 6 9 4 3 2 12  
Brimacombe DET PHI SF NYG CLE PIT IND STL CIN HOU CAR BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 91
  2 1 3 4 5 6 16 15 14 7 8 9 10 11 12 13  
Holloway DET DAL SF NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ARI NE DEN MIA 90
  10 6 4 9 3 8 16 15 13 14 2 11 7 1 5 12  
Lee DET DAL SEA NYG CLE PIT IND STL CIN HOU MIN BAL ATL GB KC MIA 89
  14 3 10 15 9 11 16 12 13 5 4 7 1 6 2 8  
Wimer DET DAL SF NYG BUF PIT IND STL CIN HOU CAR BAL ARI GB KC MIA 82
  11 10 9 8 7 6 16 15 14 5 4 3 13 2 1 12  
Garda DET DAL SEA NYG CLE PIT IND STL CIN HOU CAR BAL ARI GB DEN MIA 80
  15 14 6 9 8 2 12 7 11 13 4 3 16 1 10 5  
Heiser CHI PHI SF NYG CLE NO IND OAK TB HOU CAR SD ARI NE DEN MIA 46
  15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 16 2 1  
Away CHI PHI SEA NYG CLE NO WAS OAK CIN TEN CAR SD ARI NE DEN MIA  
Total Pts 15 54 88 164 39 10 0 9 215 2 26 7 129 36 134 205  
Home DET DAL SF JAX BUF PIT IND STL TB HOU MIN BAL ATL GB KC NYJ  
Total Pts 221 76 33 28 93 153 273 217 7 169 82 136 8 84 6 0  

Thanksgiving turned out to be a rough day for anyone that backed Chicago, Dallas or San Francisco. While a Detroit upset would have hurt the board more, Dallas and San Fran took down over 100 points between the two of them. On Sunday, the Giants, Cardinals  and Steelers hurt almost everyone on the board, but all of the teams with more than 200 confidence points came up winners this week.

OVERALL RANKINGS

Hindery took another step toward winning the overall tournament by extending his lead another 7 points over Buzzard this week. Miglio pushed his way into third place, but he's still 22 points behind the top spot. With four weeks to go, the guys in the #3 - #6 slots are going to have to start taking some chances if they want to move up. Gaining four or five points a week won't help anymore. 

Staffer W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 Total
Hindery 95 85 115 47 103 87 92 71 68 70 56 106 104         1099
Buzzard 87 74 95 54 105 87 94 93 71 74 57 103 97         1091
Miglio 91 66 102 50 108 79 79 83 73 74 63 98 111         1077
Haseley 81 83 120 48 92 98 86 81 60 74 55 98 94         1070
Gray 80 87 108 40 101 88 89 79 61 76 52 101 102         1064
Larkin 91 82 110 60 100 79 84 86 63 63 50 96 97         1061
Grant 94 65 95 58 102 90 77 87 69 66 60 94 102         1059
Bitonti 87 69 104 65 94 82 82 83 69 67 53 100 97         1052
Rudnicki 86 70 97 49 100 85 88 77 69 67 50 101 112         1051
Holloway 78 62 107 44 106 89 85 85 74 71 56 102 90         1049
Cummings 75 75 121 53 93 91 71 77 62 67 58 111 95         1049
Pasquino 85 68 100 49 96 96 76 77 73 75 64 89 95         1043
Lee 87 51 108 50 105 88 81 87 57 68 60 105 82         1029
Wood 82 91 94 37 72 91 70 88 70 72 62 86 105         1020
Garda 73 57 102 48 110 95 73 88 78 71 52 85 80         1012
Brimacombe 76 60 111 39 93 97 68 78 69 75 49 102 91         1008
Wimer 78 45 91 44 103 91 78 82 68 65 41 85 82         953
Hicks 77 82 98 48 82 75 69 74 66 37 45 81 97         931
Tremblay 68 60 77 39 66 54 81 107 57 66 38 104 103         920
Heiser 98 55 99 42 97 96 76 60 51 72 57 69 46         918

And Tremblay climbs out of the bottom slot!  He's beaten Heiser 207-115 over the last two weeks and is just 11 points behind Hicks for the next spot. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer DAL NYG STL PIT IND CAR HOU TB NYJ BAL BUF KC SEA SF NE ATL MNF
CHI TEN WAS CIN CLE NO JAX DET MIN MIA DEN ARI PHI OAK SD GB TOTAL
Rudnicki DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN KC SEA SF NE GB 48
  6 4 9 5 13 12 8 11 10 2 16 1 3 14 7 15  
Miglio DAL TEN STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN ARI PHI SF NE GB 55
  9 4 8 6 11 13 12 14 5 2 15 7 1 10 3 16  
Garda DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN ARI SEA SF NE GB 60
  12 2 11 5 6 1 9 13 8 3 16 7 4 14 10 15  
Hicks DAL TEN STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN KC SEA SF NE GB 58
  10 5 8 7 9 1 11 2 12 6 14 3 4 13 15 16  
Heiser CHI NYG STL PIT IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN KC SEA SF SD GB 48
  1 5 11 3 14 10 8 7 6 4 13 9 2 12 16 15  
Gray DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN KC PHI SF NE GB 56
  5 2 3 7 8 14 11 15 12 4 13 1 6 10 9 16  
Hindery DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN KC PHI SF NE GB 52
  5 4 9 2 10 13 6 12 11 8 16 1 3 15 7 14  
Larkin DAL TEN STL PIT IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN ARI PHI SF NE GB 53
  12 9 7 2 6 15 11 16 10 5 13 4 3 8 1 14  
Cummings DAL NYG STL PIT IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN ARI PHI SF NE GB 52
  5 10 13 3 12 6 9 15 7 2 11 14 1 16 4 8  
Brimacombe DAL NYG STL PIT IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN KC PHI SF SD GB 62
  2 1 3 16 15 14 4 13 5 6 12 10 11 9 7 8  
Wood CHI NYG STL PIT IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN ARI PHI SF NE GB 59
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Haseley DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN ARI PHI SF NE GB 55
  3 10 6 13 9 16 7 14 2 1 12 5 4 11 8 15  
Pasquino DAL NYG STL PIT IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN KC PHI SF SD GB 58
  4 15 7 14 6 8 5 10 3 13 11 16 2 9 1 12  
Lee CHI NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN KC SEA SF NE GB 54
  7 4 9 5 6 15 8 14 13 3 12 2 1 11 10 16  
Wimer DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN KC PHI SF NE GB 56
  7 6 5 4 10 15 3 13 12 2 14 11 1 9 8 16  
Bitonti DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN KC SEA SF NE GB 63
  6 4 8 5 9 13 10 14 11 3 15 2 1 12 7 16  
Tremblay DAL TEN WAS CIN CLE NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN ARI SEA SF SD GB 52
  7 14 9 10 2 13 8 12 6 4 15 1 5 11 3 16  
Holloway DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN ARI SEA SF NE GB 60
  4 2 5 14 9 11 8 12 7 1 15 13 3 10 6 16  
Buzzard DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN ARI PHI SF NE GB 54
  8 1 3 7 9 13 10 14 11 5 16 4 2 12 6 15  
Grant DAL NYG STL CIN IND NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN ARI PHI SF NE GB 58
  6 1 9 4 12 13 8 14 7 3 15 2 5 11 10 16  
Away DAL NYG STL PIT IND CAR HOU TB NYJ BAL BUF KC SEA SF NE ATL  
Total Pts 111 86 148 51 186 0 166 0 0 40 0 56 23 220 113 0  
Home CHI TEN WAS CIN CLE NO JAX DET MIN MIA DEN ARI PHI OAK SD GB  
Total Pts 24 32 9 94 2 227 0 244 166 44 270 62 43 0 27 276  

HEAVY FAVORITES

With Vegas favoring the Broncos and the Lions by more than 10 points each, seeing over 500 confidence points being risked on the two of them isn't much of a surprise. The big winner this week is Green Bay on Monday night. With 276 confidence points, they are the heaviest favorite to win their game against the Falcons this week. New Orleans and San Francisco also drew more than 220 confidence points each. Neither Houston, nor Minnesota topped the 200 confidence point mark this week, both were picked by everyone to win their games against Jacksonville and the Jets. St. Louis, and Indianapolis were strong favorites to win this week. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Baltimore at Miami is a toss up this week, and they are about as even as you can get from the leaderboard with the Dolphins receiving just four more points of confidence. Philadelphia may have received nearly twice as many points as the visiting Seahawks, but both team drew only 66 combined points of confidence for the game. Kansas City at Arizona is another game that had an almost equal amout of support for both teams, maing it a harder game to predict a winner.  

ODDS AND ENDS

With Green Bay being such a heavy favorite on Monday night this week, it's going to be hard for anyone to make a last second comeback. Manage your risk accordingly through the Sunday games and you should be in good shape. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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