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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11
By Will Grant, November 13, 2014

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11
Photo: USA Today Sports

We are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 20 Staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Clayton Gray checks in as this week's top scoring team, missing just three games this week and edging out a ton of other guys by just a couple points by managing his risk well. Eight other staffers missed the same three games, but Gray finished as much as 11 points ahead of some of them becaue he didn't risk as many points on those three games. 

Staffer CLE MIA KC PIT TEN SF DAL ATL DEN NYG STL CHI CAR TOT
CIN DET BUF NYJ BAL NO JAX TB OAK SEA ARI GB PHI Pts
Gray CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 76
  3 1 2 7 13 5 8 4 11 6 12 9 10  
Pasquino CIN MIA KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 75
  4 2 6 7 12 3 13 1 11 10 9 5 8  
Brimacombe CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 75
  5 6 7 8 4 3 9 2 10 11 1 12 13  
Buzzard CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 74
  8 3 1 5 12 4 7 2 13 11 10 9 6  
Haseley CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 74
  5 4 1 9 12 3 8 2 11 13 10 6 7  
Miglio CIN DET BUF PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 74
  5 4 1 9 10 2 8 3 13 11 12 6 7  
Wood CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL TB DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 72
  6 9 11 10 8 2 12 1 13 5 7 4 3  
Heiser CIN DET BUF PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 72
  4 3 2 12 5 1 13 9 11 10 8 7 6  
Garda CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 71
  11 2 4 6 5 3 9 1 13 12 8 10 7  
Holloway CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL TB DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 71
  4 3 2 10 12 5 8 1 11 13 6 9 7  
Hindery CIN MIA KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 70
  10 1 3 6 12 4 7 2 13 9 5 11 8  
Lee CIN DET BUF PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 68
  10 7 1 8 13 4 3 2 12 9 11 5 6  
Rudnicki CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 67
  11 5 1 10 8 3 9 2 13 12 6 7 4  
Cummings CIN DET BUF PIT BAL SF DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 67
  10 9 2 12 11 1 8 5 13 4 7 6 3  
Bitonti CLE DET BUF PIT BAL NO JAX ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 67
  2 4 3 12 11 8 1 5 10 13 7 9 6  
Tremblay CIN MIA BUF PIT BAL NO DAL TB DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 66
  8 2 6 5 7 3 4 1 13 12 9 10 11  
Grant CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 66
  10 4 2 8 13 7 6 1 11 12 9 5 3  
Wimer CIN DET KC PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 65
  10 6 5 4 9 12 3 2 1 7 8 13 11  
Larkin CIN DET BUF PIT BAL NO DAL ATL DEN SEA ARI GB PHI 63
  11 5 1 6 12 10 4 2 13 7 8 9 3  
Hicks CIN DET BUF PIT TEN NO DAL ATL DEN SEA STL GB PHI 37
  13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Away CLE MIA KC PIT TEN SF DAL ATL DEN NYG STL CHI CAR  
Total Pts 2 5 45 164 9 1 146 51 221 0 3 0 0  
Home CIN DET BUF NYJ BAL NO JAX TB OAK SEA ARI GB PHI  
Total Pts 148 87 27 0 189 90 1 3 0 191 153 154 130  

On weeks with so many teams having a bye, it's hard to make big moves. However, it's also easy to fall way behind if you miss one or two of your bigger games. Hicks may not have put a lot of thought into confidence weighting last week, and he paid for it by missing five of his first six games. Hicks only managed to post 37 points this week, the lowest total of the season for anyone. The Bengals, Steelers and Saints were almost everyone's poison this week, with big upsets costing the field over 400 confidence points this week. As previously mentioned, had each of them won as they were 'expected' to do, we'd have had many staffers with a perfect scorecard this week.

OVERALL RANKINGS

After holding the top spot for eight consecutive weeks, Hindery finally gave up the lead this week. Buzzard managed to edge him out and climb into the top spot, holding on by just a point. Haseley and Larkin swapped places at #3 and #4 overall, and Buzzard's lead is just 16 points being the difference between #1 and #4. Gray's win this week brought him closer, but he's still a few weeks away from contending for the top spot. 

Staffer W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 Total
Buzzard 87 74 95 54 105 87 94 93 71 74               834
Hindery 95 85 115 47 103 87 92 71 68 70               833
Haseley 81 83 120 48 92 98 86 81 60 74               823
Larkin 91 82 110 60 100 79 84 86 63 63               818
Gray 80 87 108 40 101 88 89 79 61 76               809
Miglio 91 66 102 50 108 79 79 83 73 74               805
Grant 94 65 95 58 102 90 77 87 69 66               803
Bitonti 87 69 104 65 94 82 82 83 69 67               802
Holloway 78 62 107 44 106 89 85 85 74 71               801
Garda 73 57 102 48 110 95 73 88 78 71               795
Pasquino 85 68 100 49 96 96 76 77 73 75               795
Rudnicki 86 70 97 49 100 85 88 77 69 67               788
Cummings 75 75 121 53 93 91 71 77 62 67               785
Lee 87 51 108 50 105 88 81 87 57 68               782
Wood 82 91 94 37 72 91 70 88 70 72               767
Brimacombe 76 60 111 39 93 97 68 78 69 75               766
Heiser 98 55 99 42 97 96 76 60 51 72               746
Wimer 78 45 91 44 103 91 78 82 68 65               745
Hicks 77 82 98 48 82 75 69 74 66 37               708
Tremblay 68 60 77 39 66 54 81 107 57 66               675

Wimer slid back a spot, and he is now one point behind Heiser on the overall board. Hicks took another tumble this week, but Tremblay still has a lot to go to catch him. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer BUF CIN HOU MIN TB SF SEA ATL DEN OAK DET PHI NE PIT MNF
MIA NO CLE CHI WAS NYG KC CAR STL SD ARI GB IND TEN TOT
Rudnicki BUF NO CLE CHI WAS SF SEA ATL DEN SD DET GB IND PIT 42
  4 12 7 6 11 8 5 3 13 14 2 10 1 9  
Miglio MIA NO CLE CHI WAS SF SEA ATL DEN SD ARI GB IND PIT 46
  10 11 6 5 8 4 3 2 13 12 7 9 1 14  
Garda MIA NO CLE MIN WAS SF SEA ATL DEN SD ARI GB NE PIT 60
  6 9 11 8 7 13 4 3 14 12 2 1 10 5  
Hicks BUF CIN HOU MIN WAS SF KC CAR DEN OAK DET GB IND PIT 51
  3 5 1 8 11 10 9 12 7 4 13 6 2 14  
Heiser MIA NO CLE CHI WAS SF SEA ATL DEN SD DET GB NE PIT 46
  2 9 10 11 7 5 6 3 12 8 4 14 1 13  
Gray MIA NO CLE MIN WAS NYG KC CAR DEN SD ARI GB IND PIT 46
  11 10 5 1 12 2 9 3 14 13 8 4 6 7  
Hindery MIA NO CLE MIN WAS SF KC CAR DEN SD DET GB IND PIT 42
  9 11 8 2 7 6 5 3 13 14 4 10 1 12  
Larkin MIA NO HOU MIN WAS SF SEA CAR DEN SD ARI GB NE PIT 44
  14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Cummings MIA NO HOU CHI WAS SF SEA CAR DEN SD DET GB IND PIT 43
  12 6 7 5 4 9 8 3 14 13 11 2 1 10  
Brimacombe MIA NO CLE CHI WAS SF SEA CAR DEN SD DET GB IND PIT 50
  2 3 14 13 12 11 4 5 10 9 1 8 7 6  
Wood MIA NO HOU CHI WAS SF SEA ATL DEN SD DET GB IND PIT 52
  14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Haseley MIA NO CLE CHI WAS SF KC CAR DEN SD ARI GB IND PIT 45
  14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Pasquino BUF NO CLE CHI WAS SF KC ATL DEN SD ARI PHI NE PIT 47
  3 10 8 4 7 6 13 14 12 11 5 1 2 9  
Lee MIA NO HOU CHI WAS SF KC CAR DEN SD DET GB IND PIT 44
  8 12 1 7 11 6 5 3 13 14 4 10 2 9  
Wimer MIA NO CLE MIN WAS NYG KC ATL DEN SD DET GB IND PIT 31
  9 13 12 7 6 11 5 4 10 8 3 14 2 1  
Bitonti BUF NO CLE MIN WAS SF KC ATL DEN SD ARI GB IND TEN 44
  2 11 9 3 4 7 10 6 14 12 5 13 8 1  
Tremblay MIA NO CLE MIN WAS SF SEA ATL DEN SD DET GB IND TEN 47
  8 6 7 2 13 11 10 3 14 12 5 4 9 1  
Holloway MIA NO CLE MIN WAS SF KC ATL DEN SD DET GB NE PIT 52
  7 10 8 5 11 6 3 4 14 13 1 9 2 12  
Buzzard MIA NO CLE CHI WAS SF KC CAR DEN SD ARI GB IND PIT 46
  9 11 6 5 12 7 1 2 13 14 3 10 4 8  
Grant MIA NO CLE CHI WAS SF KC ATL DEN SD DET GB NE PIT 45
  11 13 10 5 6 9 1 3 12 14 4 8 2 7  
Away BUF CIN HOU MIN TB SF SEA ATL DEN OAK DET PHI NE PIT  
Total Pts 12 5 33 47 0 145 56 52 230 4 56 1 19 139  
Home MIA NO CLE CHI WAS NYG KC CAR STL SD ARI GB IND TEN  
Total Pts 146 196 133 83 179 13 69 45 0 208 38 141 48 2  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Vegas has Denver and San Diego as heavy favorites this week, so it's no surprise that the leaderboard rated them both with more than 200 confidence points. Only Hicks bucked the trend taking Oakland to upset the Chargers. Washington was also picked by everyone to beat the struggling Bucs. Despite their loss to the 49ers last week, New Orleans drew almost 200 points of confidence over the Bengals, and Pittsburgh and Green Bay were both heavily favored to beat the Titans and the Eagles respectively. Miami is a strong favorite for tonight's game as well, and the 49ers received a big majority of the points against the Giants this week. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Chicago has struggled at home, but the Vikings are coming to a very cold Chicago field this weekend. While the Bears were the clear favorite, the Vikings received their fair share of points as well. Seattle at KC is about even as well, with the home Chiefs being a slight favorite. This week's least confident game is the Sunday night matchup of the Patriots and Colts. While Andrew Luck and his team were favored to win, the overall leaderboard didn't risk a lot of points on either team. Atlanta against Carolina and Detroit against Arizona were two other contests that split the board, with none of those four teams receiving more than 56 confidence points. 

ODDS AND ENDS

The bye weeks are nearly over, but 91 points is still the top score possible this week. With the season more than half over, the overal winner title is still up for grabs. However, as the weeks start to tick down, it's going to be harder and harder to catch the guys out in front. Starting next week, some guys are going to start making some bigger moves. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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