NBA GPP Contrarian Plays – Wednesday 12/7/16
Point Guard
Chalk:
Damian Lillard ($8,700 DK / $9,800 FD)
Stephen Curry ($8,500 DK / $9,100 FD)
Kemba Walker ($7,200 DK / $8,200 FD)
Contrarian:
Kyrie Irving ($7,200 DK / $7,300 FD)
Irving does not appear to be in an ideal matchup tonight going against a newly defensive minded Derrick Rose who has been tough on opposing point guards. However, Derrick Rose might be sitting tonight with back spasms which means Brandon Jennings would be taking his place in the starting lineup making the position more exploitable against than normal. The potential bad matchup should keep many players off of Irving, but even though the Knicks appear to hold point guards in check for the most part, both Rose, and Jennings have poor individual defensive ratings at 112.8, and 110.4 respectively, so the matchup might be softer than it appears. Irving depends almost solely on real scoring to be fantasy relevant which he does by taking shots from all over the court, and also getting to the line multiple times. New York is only in the middle of the league as it concerns their shots allowed, and allowed shot percentages, so there is no real advantage, or disadvantage to targeting against them in that aspect, but they do allow the 4th most free throws per game (27.0) which is certainly something to exploit by using a player like Irving who gets to the foul line multiple times. Irving should take about 20 shots tonight with multiple 3-point attempts mixed in, and he is likely to see numerous free throws as well. He is always a risky play because he is so scoring dependent, but he could score 30 real points in a matchup that is currently projected with an overall total of 217 if his shot is falling.
Shooting Guard
Chalk:
James Harden ($11,400 DK / $11,700 FD)
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800 DK / $10,200 FD)
Klay Thompson ($7,000 DK / $6,800 FD)
Contrarian:
Eric Gordon ($5,300 DK / $5,200 FD)
There are a ton of shooting guard options tonight who have been going off for career games over the past week meaning that low ownership will be inherent in the value tier at this position. Eric Gordon falls directly into this category because he has not had a big game for about ten days, and a multitude of players above him on the salary list, even some who are still relatively inexpensive, have had huge nights, so he should remain hidden. Gordon is another real scoring dependent type of player like Kyrie Irving above. He needs to take over 15 shots to be relevant, and he also needs to have his shot falling from 3-point range because half of his shots come from behind the arc being that he is one of the Rockets’ 3-point specialists. The matchup could not get much better because this will be a pace up game for Houston against the 3rd worst defense in the league (108.4 defensive rating) that allows the highest shot percentage in the league (47.7%). Los Angeles does appear to defend the 3-point shot well being that they allow the 10th lowest 3-point percentage (34.6%), but the Rockets are a team that lives, and dies by the 3-point shot, so they will keep taking them regardless of whether, or not they are falling. Gordon has big game ability, and can put up well over 30 fantasy points in this matchup making him a candidate for over 6x value at his current price.
Small Forward
Chalk:
Kevin Durant ($9,700 DK / $10,200 FD)
LeBron James ($9,900 DK / $9,600 FD)
Wilson Chandler ($6,300 DK / $6,200 FD)
Contrarian:
Paul George ($7,800 DK / $8,300 FD)
Paul George has not been much of a fantasy option this year, and he is overpriced on FanDuel where bonus points are not awarded for 3-pointers, or double-doubles, but his ownership should stay depressed tonight considering his production struggles will be combined with a slate that offers larger ownership options at higher as well as lower prices. George is a player who contributes to all statistical categories to the point where scoring is almost a secondary focus to his peripherals which gives him a high floor for cash games, but tonight’s game against the Phoenix Suns will be way up in pace, and is projected to be high scoring as well as competitive having a projected 219 overall total with Indiana as only -5 favorites giving him GPP upside tonight as well. The Suns are poor defensively being ranked 23rd in the league (106.6 defensive rating), but they also give up the 5th highest shooting percentage (46.4%), the highest 3-point percentage (39.5%), and the most free throw attempts per game (28.7), so George should be able to take scoring advantage over them all over the court including the foul line to go along with all of his peripheral statistics.
Power Forward
Chalk:
Blake Griffin ($8,600 DK / $9,400 FD)
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,900 DK / $7,600 FD)
Contrarian:
Dwight Powell ($4,100 DK / $3,900 FD)
The choice to make this play tonight comes with some risk considering he will be matched up against DeMarcus Cousins who is notorious for getting opposing front court players into foul trouble, but the Mavericks are down both Dirk Nowitzki, and Andrew Bogut meaning that Powell is forced into a large role, so the minutes as well as the opportunity will be there. Powell is a scoring rebounder who stays close to the basket which gives him high shot percentages, but also a modest amount of free throw attempts. On the season, he has been given a 17.6% usage rating which is not magnificent, but breaking it down to just the last two weeks, that usage rate has jumped all the way up to 19.6%, and is trending upward. This means that Powell looks to have a larger role in the Dallas offense going forward until either Nowitzki, or Bogut returns. His matchup against the Kings tonight is not ideal, but DeMarcus Cousins is only a mediocre defender this year, and has allowed opposing big men to score. Additionally, his low price means that a 25 fantasy point game would be exceptional. Powell should see about ten shots tonight, and will also be the main rebounder for the Mavericks, so he is likely to get a look at a double-double which would make it possible for over 6x value.
Center
Chalk:
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,000 DK / $11,100 FD)
Hassan Whiteside ($9,200 DK / $8,900 FD)
Contrarian:
John Henson ($4,700 DK / $4,700 FD)
The Milwaukee Bucks front court rotation is anything other than consistent, but Henson appears to have gained the trust of Head Coach Jason Kidd enough to be given starters duties, so he should see over 25 minutes tonight. The matchup against Portland is excellent because while it will only be a slight uptick in pace for the Bucks, the Trailblazers have the worst defense in the league (109.6 defensive rating). Portland has proven ineffective at guarding all positions on the court, but they are especially poor at defending opposing front courts. They simply have not found any sort of way to stop big men from dominating them from either mid-range, or down low which has led to them giving up the 4th most points in the paint per game in the league (46.3). Henson does a little bit of everything to create fantasy production. He is a scoring rebounder as most offensive minded big men are, but he can also create assists, and blocks with the occasional steal. He should have no issues taking any shots he would like, or pulling down any rebounds he goes after making him a double-double candidate. He does count on free throw attempts to create a large portion of his real scoring, but this is part of what makes him so attractive in this matchup because the Trailblazers allow the 2nd most free throw attempts in the league per game (28.2). Henson should make value with relative ease in this inordinately soft matchup, and he has shown to have a 40 fantasy point upside given the opportunity, so he might be the best point per dollar option on the board with over 7x potential.