NBA GPP Contrarian Picks - Wednesday 11/9/2016
It is a huge night for NBA DFS tonight with a full 11-game slate that has most of the superstars playing at all positions. It is nearly impossible to disseminate who will be highly owned at some positions like point guard, and small forward because those positions are stacked to the brim with top level talent tonight. Today's GPP article better serves you by giving you value options with high upside on both DraftKings, and FanDuel so that you're able to afford the big price tags of the superstars.
Point Guard
Chalk:
Russell Westbrook ($11,900 DK / $11,500 FD)
Chris Paul ($8,700 DK / $9,400 FD)
Contrarian:
Ish Smith ($5,100 DK / $5,300 FD)
Point Guard is the most top heavy position of the night without question. The top nine salaries are all viable choices, and the lower end of those nine salaries should easily be able to fit into your lineups. That said, there is some possible comparable upside in the value range at the point guard position, but it is not without volatility.
No point guard outside of the top nine salaries fits both value, and multiple site upside criteria quite like Ish Smith. Smith has had a down start to the year because he came into a team that does not rely on its backcourt for much production, and instead elicits the services of Andre Drummond to carry much of the load on the interior. The Detroit Piston's insistence on pounding the paint is exactly what makes Ish Smith an interiguing option tonight.
The matchup with the Phoenix Suns should mean that the Pistons will be playing a game way up in pace which suits Smith's style of play, but it also means that points in the paint will be difficult to come by because while the Suns might currently give up the most real points in the league, they are in the bottom half in the league when it comes to giving up those real points to opposing front courts. From a fantasy standpoint, the Suns give up 10% less production to opposing Centers which makes them second best in the league. Detroit is going to have to look to attack the Suns elsewhere on the court tonight, so it would make sense to give Ish Smith more opportunities. The peripherals should be there because he contributes all over the court, and he has a usage rating of 24%, but he has shown to be a 40+ fantasy point producer in the past on nights with increased scoring opportunities when his shot is falling.
Shooting Guard
Chalk:
James Harden ($11,500 DK / $11,100 FD)
Demar DeRozan ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD)
Contrarian:
Victor Oladipo ($5,600 DK / $5,300 FD)
Oladipo's price has come all the way down to a very attractive level where he is big game ready. Unforunately, he is on a team with Russell Westbrook who accounts for over 40% of the team's whole usage, but Oladipo still gets 22% usage on his own. The matchup against Toronto against tonight is not ideal because the Raptors have been stout defensively around the perimeter, but Oladipo should be called on a bit more because the defense will be focused on containing Westbrook, so the extra chances should somewhat mitigate the negatives from the poor matchup. Last year, Oladipo was able to average almost 40 fantasy points over three matchups against this very similar Raptors team that has not changed very much in the offseason meaning he has a proven track record if given increased chances.
Small Forward
Chalk:
Kevin Durant ($9,500 DK / $9,600 FD)
Kawhi Leonard ($9,200 DK / $8,800 FD)
Harrison Barnes ($6,900 DK / $5,700 FD)
Contrarian:
C.J. Miles ($4,600 DK / $4,400 FD)
Miles is getting a bit of an expanded role off the bench for the Indiana Pacers while Rodney Stuckey is out with an injury. He is serving as the first man off the bench when the substitutions are called, and has been getting just under 25 minutes per game over the last week. The Pacers play the winless Philadelphia 76ers tonight in a game that is expected to be a blowout. Not only are the 76ers winless, but they are also terrible at defending any position on the court, and the pace of the game will be fast meaning that value from this game should do well. Miles has been given about 24% usage when he is on the court this season to go along with over 10 shots per game while averaging 57%/51% from 2-point, and 3-point range. He should have no problem making value tonight, and does have 30+ fantasy point upside on both DraftKings, and FanDuel in a matchup that might offer him a couple more looks in a blowout.
Power Forward
Chalk:
Blake Griffin ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD)
Paul Millsap ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)
Contrarian:
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,200 DK / $6,600 FD)
Power Forward is a tough spot to figure out on this slate. Blake Griffin will be hugely owned, and Paul Millsap is on the second night of a back to back. The value tiered players are either in sub-par matchups, or are not priced quite effectively on one, or both sites. This is what makes Porzingis attractive against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Daily fantasy players will likely be trying to go the way of Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, or Markieff Morris, but all three of these players have large strikes against them tonight, so Porzingis should go mostly unnoticed, and he is just cheap enough to have decent upside while allowing you to spend larger elsewhere.
So far this year, Porzingis is getting 24% usage to go with 57%/39% shooting averages from 2-point, and 3-point range. He is also averaging well over a dozen shots per game, and there is no reason that should not continue tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are on the second half of a back to back, and have so far allowed 13% more fantasy production to power forwards than the league average. The Knicks should get a significant boost in game pace with a 208 projected overall total. Porzingis will benefit from the extra shots the game pace will allow, and he has traditionally produced over 1.0 fantasy points per minute against Brooklyn, so his 45 fantasy point upside has an excellent chance of showing itself tonight.
Center
Chalk:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD)
Dwight Howard ($7,500 DK / $8,200 FD)
Contrarian:
Andrew Bogut ($4,500 DK / $4,500 FD)
Andrew Bogut gets to take on his former Golden State Warriors team tonight, and the matchup alone will probably scare most players off if they are even looking this far down the Center list, but the Warriors have been giving up about 6% more fantasy production to the Center position than the league average, so the matchup is actually premium. This will be a pace way up for the Mavericks meaning that there will be more scoring chances to go around, and while Bogut is not much of a scorer, the extra shots will also mean extra opportunities for rebounds. He is only getting a paltry 10% usage when he's on the court, but he has been getting over 30 minutes per game average over the previous two games, so he should see significant court time, and have plenty of opportunity to rack up peripheral statistics. His price is about right, but it does still offer a bit of upside because Bogut can touch 30 fantasy points in an extremely quick matchup that might give him a shot at a double-double.
