NBA GPP Contrarian Picks – Friday 11/11/16
Point Guard
Chalk:
Russell Westbrook ($11,300 DK / $11,500 FD)
Damian Lillard ($8,700 DK / $9,300 FD)
Chris Paul ($8,900 DK / $9,300 FD)
Contrarian:
Isaiah Thomas ($7,900 DK / $8,200 FD)
Point guard is likely the position where you do not want to spend down today considering there are so many top options for affordable prices. Isaiah Thomas might be a touch expensive in this position, but he still has some upside left even at his mildly inflated pricing in the tonight’s highest projected overall total of 216 with Boston as the -6 favorite.
Isaiah Thomas scores fantasy points in multiple ways. He will generally take over 15 shots per night, he knows how to get to the free throw line multiple times per night, and he doles out enough assists to make him a double-double threat any time he touches the court which is why the matchup against the New York Knicks could not be much better. So far this year, the Knicks are only average in allowing 2-point, and 3-point attempts, but they are 22nd in 2-point attempts made as well as 23rd in 3-point attempts made leading to allowing a 3rd worst 46.4% shooting percentage to opponents. They are also 23rd in the league at allowing opponents to get to the free throw line, and give up 109.8 points per game average which is 5th most in the league. There will be plenty of scoring opportunities for Isaiah Thomas tonight in multiple categories. He should be able to take as many shots as he wants, and will be able to exploit the Knicks high amount of fouls in order to get to the free throw line, but all of the scoring the Knicks allow should also give Thomas plenty of opportunity to rack up assist totals. His price tag might be inflated a tiny amount, but he has the potential for going over 45 fantasy points tonight.
Shooting Guard
Chalk:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)
Rodney Hood ($5,800 DK / $5,400 FD)
Contrarian:
J.R. Smith ($4,200 DK / $4,200 FD)
There are no shooting guard options blow that top players who do not come without volatility. Rodney Hood is by far the most consistent, but he should be into chalky levels of ownership because players are aware of his upside when Hill is out. Marcus Thornton might also be highly owned if Bradley Beal sits for the Wizards, so he is off the contrarian board. This leads to looking at players like Monta Ellis, and J.R. Smith since most of the rest of the possibly contrarian options are in poor matchups.
J.R. Smith is being selected here for of his price, and because he is the Cleveland Cavalier’s 3-point specialist. He will not do much apart from scoring with some steals, but the Washington Wizard’s opponent statistics show that this should be a favorable matchup for Smith. So far this year, the Wizards have given up the 5th most 3-point attempts per game at 28.7 to go along with the most 3-pointers made per game at 11.3, and the league’s highest 3-point attempt percentage at 39.5%. They also give up 10 steals per game which is 25th in the league. J.R. Smith matches up almost identically with these statistics making him a more interesting option than other contrarian shooting guards on the slate. Expect him to take around 10 3-point shots tonight with the potential for adding steals against a turnover prone Wizard’s team. Smith is extremely volatile, but he does have a legitimate 30+ fantasy point upside if his shot is falling which would be good for over 7x value on both sites.
Small Forward
Chalk:
Otto Porter ($6,500 DK / $6,000 FD)
LeBron James ($10,200 DK / $9,500 FD)
Contrarian:
Carmelo Anthony ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD)
This might be the night to fade the top small forward options on the slate with some excellent, and underpriced guys in the middle range pricing tier. Otto Porter will be massively owned because people will be chasing points after he had two big games in a row. The rest of the ownership should go to top of the list leaving players like Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gay, and Carmelo Anthony to go relatively unnoticed. Anthony gets the call here because his matchup against the Boston Celtics might be the best he has had all year.
Anthony has been a bit disappointing for fantasy owners to start off this year. He has a 50 fantasy point upside, but has struggled to even reach the 40 fantasy point mark in almost every game so far. His matchup with the Boston Celtics tonight could be just what he needs to breathe some semblance of life into his fantasy value. On the season, the Celtics are currently the worst in the league when it comes to defensive efficiency with an inordinate 112.9 rating. A 112.9 defensive efficiency rating is a number that even the Los Angeles Lakers of the previous couple of years did not come close to touching during the time they were worst in the league. This can be attributed to their 29.7 3-point attempts allowed per game which is 3rd worst in the NBA, the league’s 5th highest 3-point attempt percentage at 37.6%, and the league’s 2nd most 3-point shots made at 11.2 per game. They also have mediocre stats when it comes to rebounding on both ends of the court as well as 2-point shots attempted, and made which both rank in the bottom half of the league. The most glaring issue with Boston is not the shooting stats they allow though, but rather the mammoth number of free throw attempts they give up per game. The Celtics are giving 30.3 free throw attempts per game which is the 2nd most in the league, and directly contributes to allowing a 3rd most 111.8 total points per game. This has not been the defensive team daily fantasy players were used to seeing last year.
Anthony makes sense in this matchup because he is a high volume, high efficiency shooter who knows how to get to the free throw line multiple times per game, and contributes across the board with peripherals. If he shoots anywhere close to 45% tonight, he will almost make value on real points alone, but does have 6-7x upside.
Power Forward
Chalk:
Blake Griffin ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD)
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,300 DK / $6,900 FD)
Contrarian:
Derrick Favors ($6,200 DK /$5,900 FD)
It is difficult to project what kind of ownership Derrick Favors will see tonight, but it should be lower than normal considering the injury effect is still wearing off fantasy players, and there are four choices at the top of the list who are always relatively highly owned.
Favors is simply far too underpriced on both sites in almost any matchup he could possibly have. He is normally an $8,000 caliber player, but his price has become severely depressed due to a poor finish last year while dealing with injuries. He is a rebounding specialist who also gets called upon to generate much of Utah’s front court offense while receiving over 10-shots per night. Tonight, Favors gets to play in a slightly paced up game against an Orlando Magic team that is not only 3rd worst in the league when it comes to opponents rebounding the ball, but also 2nd worst in the league in the defensive efficiency category. The Magic allow a moderately respectable overall total points per game average of 102.0 because they play relatively slowly, but they also give up 50.3 of those points in the paint which is 3rd worst in the league. The projected overall total for the game is quite low currently at 192, but Favors should be able to come close to 20 real points with double digit rebounds, and might be able to add some blocks considering Orlando enlists their Center for a significant chunk of their offensive production. Favors has already shown flashes of his 45 fantasy point upside, and there is no reason to believe he should have any issue exceeding value at his current price.
Center
Chalk:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,000 DK / $9,500 FD)
Myles Turner ($6,800 DK / $6,800 FD)
Joel Embiid ($5,900 DK / $5,200 FD)
Contrarian:
Marcin Gortat ($6,400 DK / $6,000 FD)
This is a play that is much better if Bradley Beal were to sit out, but should still be given a look even if Beal does play; although, it is more suited as a cash play in that instance.
Gortat is a rebounding specialist who the Wizards count on for moderate scoring down low, and does have potential for a couple of blocks. He is not normally a high usage choice, but he is quite efficient because the chances he gets are generally in very close proximity to the basket, and he bolsters his scoring by finding his way to the free throw line multiple times per game. Fantasy players might be scared off because roster players on teams matching up against the Cavaliers is not generally a profitable strategy in GPPs, but Cleveland has given up over 11% more fantasy points than league average to centers during the first few weeks of the season because Tristan Thompson’s weak defense. If Beal does remain off the court for tonight’s game, Gortat should be called upon to take 10-12 shots which would give him the possibility for points in the high teens to go along with double digit rebounds. His price is not very attractive, but does allow for some upside considering he has a 40 fantasy point ceiling which should be possible to hit tonight.
