NBA GPP Contrarian Picks for Wednesday 12/2/16

Photo: USA Today Sports

NBA GPP Contrarian Plays – Friday 12/2/16

Welcome to the HoopsGuys NBA GPP Contrarian article. Here there will be contrarian GPP plays at each position for the given night’s slate which are intended to not only have depressed ownership, but also significant upside which helps separate your lineups from the herd in large field daily fantasy tournaments giving you a better chance at creating a unique roster.

Point Guard

Chalk:

John Wall ($8,400 DK / $8,900 FD)

Kyle Lowry ($8,100 DK / $8,700 FD)

Contrarian:

Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,900 DK / $5,800 FD)

Mudiay gets to take on the Houston Rockets tonight in a matchup that might be a bit softer than statistics would indicate. The Rockets are finishing up a three games in four nights set, and are also on the wrong half of a back-to-back coming into the mile high air in Denver after a grueling double overtime win at Golden State where Harden, Ariza, Gordon, and Anderson played between 39-46 minutes. Houston is likely to be tired this game, and those worn out legs should be able to be beaten on the defensive end by a fast paced Nuggets offense. On the year, Mudiay is seeing about 27% usage with a fantasy point per minute rate of 0.81, but it would not be surprising to see him push that into the 0.90-1.00 range going against a defense that will be exhausted. Additionally, two correlating statistics are beginning to trend in the right way for fantasy when deciding to roster opposing players against Houston. First, even though they began the first couple of weeks of the year as one of the slower teams in the league, the Rockets’ pace has crept all the way up to 13^th in the league (99.4) meaning that games against them should no longer be considered down in pace. Second, along with their slow pace, Houston also had been showing signs of defensive life to begin the year which allowed them to be ranked in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, but they have slid all the way back down to 25^th in the league. The game is currently projected for a 217 overall total with Denver as only a -4.5 favorite, so this should be a fast paced matchup with plenty of scoring, and peripheral chances giving Mudiay an opportunity to hit 6x.

Shooting Guard

Chalk:

James Harden ($11,900 DK / $11,500 FD)

DeMar DeRozan ($8,300 DK / $8,900 FD)

Contrarian:

Evan Fournier ($6,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

The Shooting Guard position is the most difficult spot to find differentiation tonight since it is a mix of generally highly owned players throughout all price ranges excluding the minimum priced bottom tier. Evan Fournier has a case for going overlooked tonight because of his price, but also because he is surrounded by other players like Zach LaVine, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Jordan Clarkson all of whom should help syphon away his ownership. Fournier’s price is a bit concerning, but he does have $8,000 player value when he is on, so he could turn out to be severely underpriced against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The matchup for Orlando should be up in pace against the 24^th worst defense in the league (106.4 defensive efficiency), and although it is expect to remain relatively low scoring with a projected overall total of 196 currently, it is also expected to be competitive throughout, so all starters should see their full workloads. Fournier scores points in multiple ways which is what makes his so appealing against bad teams, especially bad teams which are turnover prone as well as poor rebounders because Fournier pads his fantasy stats with peripherals across the board on his big nights to go along with moderate real scoring. Philadelphia is a poor rebounding, turnover prone team, but they are also exactly in the middle of the league when it comes to giving up opponent free throws, and Fournier knows how to find his way to the free throw line. Expect his line to look something like 20points/5assists/5rebounds tonight with a couple of steals, and possibly a few more real points if he does find his way to the free throw line multiple times.

Small Forward

Chalk:

LeBron James ($9,400 DK / $9,700 FD)

Jimmy Butler ($8,700 DK / $8,800 FD)

Wilson Chandler ($6,800 DK / $6,300 FD)

Contrarian:

Danilo Gallinari ($5,800 DK / $6,000 FD)

Gallinari is putting together a season to forget that has all but dropped him out of fantasy relevance which is largely attributed to an almost meteoric drop in his shooting percentages, and makes him a true boom/bust option. However, daily fantasy players who are new to NBA might not realize the kind of remarkable upside Gallinari has when his shot is falling which could be tonight. The game against the Rockets along with their defensive troubles has already been outlined above in the Emmanuel Mudiay section, but one thing that had not been mentioned is Houston’s immensely poor allowed shooting percentages. Currently, the Rockets give up the 4^th highest overall shooting percentage (46.5%), and the 2^nd highest 3-point shooting percentage (38.2%) meaning that Gallinari should have all of the open, uncontested shots he wants to take from anywhere on the court, so his abysmal averages get a significant potential boost in this situation. If he is able to consistently find the bottom of the net tonight, he could flash the 45 fantasy point upside veteran fantasy players have seen in past seasons.

Power Forward

Chalk:

Anthony Davis ($11,700 DK / $12,300 FD)

Blake Griffin ($8,500 DK / $9,000 FD)

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,900 DK / $7,900 FD)

Contrarian:

Ersan Ilyasova ($4,700 DK / $4,600 FD)

Ilyasova is quietly having a very respectable year owning shooting averages of 52.4%/40.3% from 2-point, and 3-point range respectively. He has also been given the highest usage (20.5%) out of all of the 76ers bench players, so it appears he is trusted to be able to consistently produce. The game against the Orlando Magic is not expected to be very high scoring, but Ilyasova does not depend on real scoring for his fantasy production even though his shooting percentages are so high. He mainly depends on rebounds to hit is value mark, and tonight he gets to play against a Magic team that has shown to be worse-than-average rebounders. Orlando is tied for 18^th in the league in rebounding rate (49.9) which is less than mediocre as it stands, but they also give up the 8^th most total rebounds to opponents (45.4 per game), so while the real scoring might not be there for Ilyasova, his rebounding totals get a boost. A realistic line to look for would be 15points/10rebounds/2assists which would be good for around 30 fantasy points, and possibly a couple more on DraftKings due to 3-point/double-double bonuses.

Center

Chalk:

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,700 DK / $10,900 FD)

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,400 DK / $9,400 FD)

Joel Embiid ($6,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

Contrarian:

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD)

Jonas Valanciunas being under $6,000 on either DraftKings, or FanDuel is a price that is just waiting to be exploited. Unfortunately, this is a slate where there are superstar players as well as a better option at very near the same price on FanDuel in Joel Embiid, but Embiid is likely to be into the chalky levels of ownership because he should be seeing at least 28-minutes going forward which will cause daily fantasy players to funnel toward him making Valanciunas a viable pivot option. Valanciunas has a good chance at being the better point-per-dollar choice because he will be going up against a soft Los Angeles Lakers’ front court that gives up over 9% extra production to opposing centers than league average. This is especially true on DraftKings where he is priced $1,200 cheaper, and could put up fantasy totals within a few points of Embiid. Valanciunas will be going up against the 26^th ranked defense in the NBA tonight which gives up the most points in the paint in the entire league (49.0 per game). This will also be a pace way up for Toronto in a game that has a projected 214 overall total which is 2^nd highest on the slate. The only worry here is Valanciunas’ minutes because he has been used sparingly the past couple of games, but he should be able to generate over 1.0 fantasy points per minute in this matchup, so look for him to get into the 35 fantasy point range if he is allotted a normal workload.