NBA GPP Contrarian Plays – Wednesday 11/30/16
Point Guard
Chalk:
Russell Westbrook ($12,600 DK / $12,400 FD)
John Wall ($9,300 DK / $9,200 FD)
Contrarian:
Kyle Lowry ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)
The Toronto Raptor’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies sets up to be a slow paced, low projected total (195 currently) blowout since Memphis is going to be without their starting Point Guard Mike Conley. Memphis being down Conley is exactly what makes Lowry an alluring play tonight because he will be going up against a combination of two rookies in Wade Baldwin, and Andrew Harrison. When going against opposing point guards, the Grizzlies are already weakest when it comes to allowing them to score, but they are also weak against allowing assists from them as well. Kyle Lowry fits these weaknesses perfectly because he is a modest scoring assister who does not need much else to reach, or exceed value. He should have no problem handling rookies tonight as Memphis will likely be terribly inefficient when defending opposing point guards for the time being until either Conley comes back, or the rookie point guards learn to defend at the NBA level. The only worry here is the possible blow out, but the Grizzlies are good enough defensively elsewhere on the court to keep the game in reach long enough for the starters to get close to full minutes. Lowry might not have an immense amount of upside on FanDuel at $8,300, but he should be able to make value which is great for the price. He is still a better play on DraftKings where his is a bit cheaper, and he also gets a +0.5 fantasy point bonus for 3-pointers.
Shooting Guard
Chalk:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD)
Bradley Beal ($7,300 DK / $7,000 FD)
Contrarian:
Dwyane Wade ($6,700 DK / $6,900 FD)
Dwyane Wade’s ownership percentages have been quite low throughout the season so far, but he has quietly started to come back into fantasy relevance after being mostly dormant last season. He should continue to go underowned tonight considering that there are at least four other players in the shooting guard spot who will have higher ownership. So far on the season, Wade has met, or exceeded value seven times out of the thirteen games he has played. His price has come up a little over the last week, but not so much as to where it has made him unplayable as he is returning up to $9,000 value on the nights when he is running well. He has been logging over 30-minutes most nights, and has given his owners an average of 1.01 fantasy points per minute as a reward which is a number that should get a boost when taking on a Los Angeles Lakers team that has begun to show significant defensive cracks. After beginning the year in the correct defensive direction, the Lakers have now slipped all the way down to 2nd worst with a defensive rating of 108.6, so this should be a substantial boost in pace for Chicago on their home court against a floundering defense. Wade should have no issues returning value tonight, but does have 6-6.5x upside as well.
Small Forward
Chalk:
Jimmy Butler ($9,000 DK / $9,000 FD)
Carmelo Anthony ($7,500 DK / $7,800 FD)
Wilson Chandler ($7,000 DK / $6,400 FD)
Contrarian:
Andrew Wiggins ($6,500 DK / $5,900 FD)
Wiggins has come back down to Earth the last ten days after a six game stretch where he showed the world his massive upside, but he has failed to meet value since that point which has caused his salary to drop on DraftKings, and almost bottom out on FanDuel. His struggles have left fantasy players disillusioned because they have realized his floor can be almost single digits on nights when he is not scoring, so his ownership should be depressed tonight in a home court matchup against the New York Knicks. The Knicks have begun to show their lack of defensive prowess in that they are now tied for 26th in the league with a defensive rating of 107.5. Additionally, the game has a projected overall total of 211 points, so there should be plenty of scoring to go around even though both teams play at a relatively slow pace. Wiggins is by far a scorer before he will get any peripherals, so realizing how he scores points is critical to selecting him for your lineups. He is a volume shooter who will take between 15-20 shots per game, or possibly even a few more, with a few of those shots being from beyond the 3-point arc. His scoring also relies upon being able to reach the free throw line, so he does best on the nights when his shots are falling from long range, and when he is fouled numerous times. The Knicks give up the 11th highest 3-point percentage in the league (35.4%) which is a better than average matchup in that department, but the more intriguing statistic is that they also give up the 5th most free throw attempts per game (26.2). Wiggins is a better GPP play on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings because of his pricing, but the game does set up for him to have another 6-7x value night on both sites.
Power Forward
Chalk:
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD)
Julius Randle ($6,600 DK / $6,500 FD)
Contrarian:
Thaddeus Young ($5,700 DK / $5,500 FD)
Thaddeus Young has lost much of his appeal since coming over to the Pacers from the Nets in the offseason since most of his fantasy production totals have taken a hit, and he has failed to make value most nights even at a lower price than where he currently sits. Although, what he does have tonight is opportunity. The Pacers take on the Portland Trailblazers who have not only the worst defense in the league currently, but are also extraordinarily weak against opposing power forwards. On the year, the Trailblazers have given up over 14% more fantasy points to the power forward position than league average, and those fantasy points are generated by opposing power forwards in virtually all fantasy relevant categories. Young also has the added opportunity of Paul George being sidelined with a back injury, so he should be able to take a couple more shots, and have increased chances at bringing down rebounds. He is borderline safe for cash, but does also have a bit of boom/bust making him better for GPP play. He cannot be expected to put up the 40+ point fantasy games he did with Brooklyn because Indiana spreads their offense out to their starters evenly, but 6-6.5x value is realistic in this matchup.
Center
Chalk:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,800 DK / $10,900 FD)
Hassan Whiteside ($8,800 DK / $8,700 FD)
Contrarian:
Marc Gasol ($7,100 DK / $7,000 FD)
This is not an ideal matchup for Gasol at first glance, but it is better than it initially appears to be after digging a little further. The most important factor here is that the Grizzlies starting Point Guard Mike Conley is down with an injury for the next 4-6 weeks which means that Gasol will be taking on an even larger real scoring role than he has already been given. It also means that he will be counted upon to distribute the ball more since largely untested rookies Wade Baldwin, and Andrew Harrison will be filling the starting point guard role in the interim. This is good news for Gasol’s value because the two main aspects of his fantasy production are points as well as assists with moderate rebounding, and blocking totals. As it pertains to the Toronto Raptors positional defense, they are weakest against scoring Centers, but have not faced a true assisting type of big man which has artificially inflated their numbers against Center generated assists. If the Grizzlies can manage to keep this game close meaning that Gasol gets all of his minutes, he could realistically see a 20 points / 5 rebounds / 5 assists which would allow him to get into the 40 fantasy point range when including a couple combined steals/blocks he should be able to grab.