NBA GPP Contrarian Picks – Wednesday 11/2/16
Point Guard
Chalk:
Russell Westbrook - $12,900 DK / $12,000 FD
Damian Lillard - $9,600 DK / $9,900 FD
Tim Frazier - $6,200 DK / $5,500 FD
Contrarian:
Chris Paul - $8,400 DK / $9,000 FD
It is a bit of a gamble that Chris Paul will go underowned tonight, but that just might be the case with everyone going after Tim Frazier, and Russell Westbrook as well as there being a cornucopia of point guard options tonight.
The game between the Los Angeles Clippers, and the Oklahoma City Thunder has a projected total of 209 with the Clippers being favored by 7. The game should stay close enough for the starters to fill their normal minutes, so expect Paul to play just over 30.
On the season, Chris Paul is boasting a 26% usage rating with a shooting average of 48% on 14 shot attempts per game. He is also contributing across the board with 7.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds average, so the shot attempts, and the peripherals will be there for him to capitalize upon.
Historically, Paul has done very well against the Thunder while averaging almost 50 fantasy points per game when they meet each other. This Clippers team is almost identical to the previous couple of years, so there is no reason to believe that history will not repeat itself.
You can expect 20-25 real points out of Chris Paul tonight with assists nearing the double digits, and a couple of steals from the turnover prone Russell Westbrook to go along with a minor amount of rebounds. He should be well within the 5x value zone pushing closer to 6x.
Shooting Guard
Chalk:
James Harden - $11,200 DK / $11,200 FD
DeMar DeRozan - $7,800 DK / $8,100 FD
Jimmy Butler on DraftKings - $7,700 DK
Contrarian:
Jordan Clarkson - $5,400 DK / $5,200 FD
Clarkson has been more inconsistent this year than we have been used to in the past. He is going up against an Atlanta Hawks team tonight that appears to have fixed whatever disaster happened to take their defense from one of the best in the league two seasons ago to one of the worst in the league last season. The matchup is not ideal which is why most fantasy players will be off Clarkson. He is also on a back-to-back flying halfway across the country to Atlanta from last night’s game in Indiana, and he is on the final night of a 3 out of 4. Most of these points should be a warning against choosing a player, but there are some very good reasons to give him a look.
The main reason behind this choice is his pricing. He is priced far too low because of his inconsistency in the first few games of the season when he should normally be priced somewhere in the $6,500 range. Clarkson also has the second highest usage rating on the team at a respectable 25.7%, and he will be taking around 15 shots total in a game that looks to be paced way up for the Los Angeles Lakers. If his shot is falling, he will make value on real points alone while adding a small handful of peripherals to push him up to 6.5-7x value.
As for the scheduling, the back to back, and 3 in 4 should not be all that worrisome because his production has not historically been affected by such a busy schedule.
Small Forward
Chalk:
Jimmy Butler - $7,700 DK / $7,900 DK
Carmelo Anthony - $7,500 DK / $7,500 FD
T.J. Warren - $5,900 DK / $5,500 FD
Contrarian:
Kent Bazemore - $4,900 DK / $4,500 FD
This is a boom, or bust play, but small forward is the most difficult position tonight, and has numerous pitfalls apart from the only two top options on the board. However, Bazemore is buried between players which are usually more highly owned, and T.J. Warren is playing tonight for a cheap price on both sites, so fantasy players choosing to spend down at small forward will gravitate that way.
On the season, Bazemore has not been very impressive so far. He is currently shooting only 28% from the field overall, and an even worse 18% from three point range on a team that counts on him for his normal 35% career average three point shot. The matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers goes without saying, but also the disparity between his current, and his career shooting average combined with his low pricing are what make him an enticing option on this slate.
In this matchup, and at his current price, Bazemore has over 7x value potential if his shot is falling. The Hawks trust him enough to allow him a 20.9% usage rating which puts him as only a fourth offensive option, but he should still get 10 shots considering the way Atlanta spreads their offense around. Although, he does not need a lot of points to contribute to your lineups because he will offer a little help with all peripheral categories especially in steals.
Bazemore has a floor/ceiling tonight of 3-7x, but your lineups will greatly benefit if he hits the higher range of that projection because he will go almost completely overlooked.
Power Forward
Chalk:
Anthony Davis - $10,900 DK / $10,700 FD
Blake Griffin - $8,600 DK / $9,100 FD
Paul Millsap - $8,000 DK / $8,400 FD
Contrarian:
Tobias Harris - $6,100 DK / $6,200 FD
Tobias Harris has been more than serviceable this season averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in a matchup with a decent 204 over/under where Detroit is only favored by 4 against a Brooklyn Nets team that has yet to face a power forward who is relied upon for a hefty offensive load. Another strike against Brooklyn is that their rebound numbers are likely to be inflated because they have not yet faced a good rebounding team. Both of those elements will change tonight.
Over the first four games of the season, Detroit has gifted Harris with a hearty 24.5% usage which only ranks under Andre Drummond, but is over 4% higher than the next player on the team. Detroit counts on their front court to generate the largest part of the offense while tossing the carrion to the guards. Detroit is also 4th in the league in total rebounds per game at 49.8 with Tobias Harris, and Andre Drummond combining to average 21 of the total.
The Pistons should comfortably be able to score in the front court, and rebound over the Nets, so a 20/10 line is well within the cards for Harris which would put him over 5x value before figuring in the few other peripherals he should also garner. He has a decided possibility of even going over 40 total fantasy points which would push him all the way up to 6.5x value.
Center
Chalk:
Anthony Davis on DraftKings: $10,900
Dwight Howard - $7,600 DK / $8,200 FD
Andre Drummond - $8,300 DK / $8,000 FD
Contrarian:
Steven Adams - $6,000 DK / $5,000 FD
This is a better play on FanDuel than it is on DraftKings because of the pricing, but it is more than viable on both sites regardless. As a narrative, the Thunder just extended Adams with a 4-year $100 million contract, so he should have a little extra incentive to play hard.
Steven Adams comes into tonight’s game with the Los Angeles Clippers owning almost a double-double average with 13.0 points, and 9.0 rebounds per game. The game itself has the third highest projected total at 209 with the 7-point favored Clippers giving the Oklahoma City Thunder a big bump in pace.
The Thunder do not spread their offense out all that much instead preferring to have the ball in Russell Westbrook’s hands the majority of the night while making Oladipo, and Adams the equal #2 options. Everyone else in the starting five is quite far down the line from these three guys. So far, Adams has a 20.4% usage while he’s on the court, and has been given 12 shots per game to go along with a 45% shooting average meaning that the offensive chances will be there in this game. Although, the more intriguing aspect of this matchup is the rebounding.
The Los Angeles Clippers, and the Thunder are both in the top ten in total rebounds per game with Oklahoma City having a distinct advantage on both offensive, and defensive glass. However, the noticeable difference is on the offensive side of the ball for the Clippers. Los Angeles is a team that does not intentionally fight for offensive rebounds which is evidenced by their 16th in the league offensive rebounding rate at only 23.8%. The main strength of the Thunder’s rebounding is their ability to grab boards on the defensive end of the court, so any of the Clippers missed shots are far more likely to go to Oklahoma City. This should be a big rebounding night for Adams, and it would not at all be unanticipated if he double-doubled with more rebounds than actual points.
Adams hitting 6x value on DraftKings, and 7x value on FanDuel is a feasible projection.
