NBA GPP Contrarian Picks – Friday 11/18/16
Point Guard
Chalk:
Russell Westbrook ($12,300 DK / $11,400 FD)
Damian Lillard ($9,100 DK / $9,600 FD)
Contrarian:
Kyle Lowry ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)
The Point Guard position looks like the one place where you are not going to want to spend down tonight being that there are so many top options accompanying middling value choices. The ownership totals should be mostly diluted for the rest of the picks under Russell Westbrook, but expect Damian LIllard, and Stephen Curry to grab the larger parts of the rest. This leaves Kyle Lowry in a great spot to have low ownership in a superb matchup against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets matchup will be a pace way up for the Raptors with a 213 projected overall total, so there will be plenty of scoring, and assist chances. Lowry is the type of player who looks to assist as much as he looks to score, and while his scoring totals might not be scintillating, he does take over 15 shots per night while leaving free throw attempts unnecessary for his overall fantasy value. The projected point total of this game is high, so Lowry should have no problem taking any shot he wants, but the Nuggets also give up the 5th most assists in the league (23.9 per game) meaning that the projected overall score will give a nice boost to assist totals. Lowry is in line to hit $9,000 - $9,500 player value tonight, so he is severely underpriced in this matchup.
Shooting Guard
Chalk:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,600 DK / $9,200 FD)
C.J. McCollum ($7,400 DK / $7,500 FD)
Contrarian:
Monta Ellis ($5,300 DK / $5,600 FD)
Ellis is never an exciting pick to roster unless you consider yelling at your phone the entire time he is playing as exciting. He started out the year on a down note after the Pacers added some more offensive tools in the offseason, and he has been relegated to a #3, or #4 offensive choice, so he is a boom, or bust option. What he does have tonight is a matchup against the Phoenix Suns who currently play at the fastest pace in the league, and are at, or very near the top of opponent allowed statistical categories including shots attempted, field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, and free throw attempts. The Suns are also moderately poor rebounders ranking 18th in the league in rebound rate (49.8). The Pacers are worse rebounders than the Suns, but both teams being poor rebounders should mean that missed shots will be up for grabs. Ellis’ big nights happen when he is able to contribute across the board, but he does need a few steals to help out his fantasy production as well. The game should be played loosely, so the shot attempts, rebounds, assists, and free throws will be there, but the Suns do not appear to turn the ball over very often, and are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to allowing steals to opponents. However, Monta will be going up against a turnover prone Devin Booker tonight, so the opportunity for multiple steals will be there to go along with the rest of the peripheral stats. Ellis’ price is not very inviting, but he does have over $7,000 player value when he is on, so he will turn out to be extremely cheap if tonight is one of those nights.
Small Forward
Chalk:
LeBron James ($10,000 DK / $10,100 FD)
Kevin Durant ($9,500 DK / $9,700 FD)
Harrison Barnes ($6,600 DK / $6,100 FD)
Contrarian:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,100 DK / $5,200 FD)
This play is contingent upon the status of Dwight Howard because the Hawks become far worse rebounders when Howard is limited, or off the court as was seen earlier in the week when Hassan Whiteside pulled down 25 boards against Atlanta. Kidd-Gilchrist is an interesting choice most nights because he does not do anything other than rebound the ball with some light scoring, but he is always a double-double threat, and sometimes can generate huge double-double totals as he did against Milwaukee on October 26th when he scored 23 points to go along with 14 rebounds. Tonight’s game against the Hawks will be a significant bump up in pace which means there should be more scoring chances to go around, and also more rebounds to be had giving Kidd-Gilchrist the chance of putting up double digit numbers in both categories. The matchup is not ideal because Atlanta has one of the best defenses in the NBA all around the court, but Kidd-Gilchrist’s price is low enough as to where he does not need to score real points to produce in a fantasy sense tonight.
Power Forward
Chalk:
Anthony Davis ($10,800 DK / $11,400 FD)
Terrence Jones ($6,200 DK / $5,000 FD)
Kevin Love ($8,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
Contrarian:
Thaddeus Young ($5,000 DK/ $5,200 FD)
Thaddeus Young has seen his price drop significantly since joining the Indiana Pacers because his fantasy production has taken a tumble down to where he is now priced just about right. He does have a relatively high floor, but his ceiling is somewhat limited because the Pacers choose to spread their offense out to three, or four guys giving everyone about equal usage shares. Tonight, the Pacers take on the Phonix Suns in a matchup that should be a good bump in pace, but also played with very little defense from the Phoenix side of the ball considering the Suns are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency rate (107.0). Phoenix looks to be most susceptible to forward positions, especially power forwards because they have given up almost 15% more fantasy points to power forwards than league average. Young contributes mostly in real points, and rebounds, but also will dole out a couple of assists if the opportunity is there. There should be plenty of opportunity for Young to generate all three of these statistics because the projected game total is a hefty 217 overall, but also because the Suns are a poor rebounding team, and allow 23.3 assists per game. Young should have no problem getting to value in this matchup, and does have a shot at showing the 40 fantasy point upside daily fantasy players became accustomed to during his time with the Brooklyn Nets in previous years.
Center
Chalk:
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,300 DK / $9,800 FD)
Andre Drummond ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)
Contrarian:
Pau Gasol ($6,000 DK / $6,200 FD)
The secret that Head Coach Greg Popovich has finally begun to give Gasol starters minutes has not yet gotten out. Gasol has played over 31 minutes in each of his last four games, and has amassed 58 shot attempts over that span averaging over 50% shooting. There are some other big name centers on the board including DeMarcus Cousins in a great matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers, so other fantasy plays should largely stay away from the middle of the salary list at this position. Gasol contributes in multiple ways which makes his floor extraordinarily high for his pricing. He is a scorer before anything else, but he also is a double-double threat for rebounds, and can also distribute the ball some giving him respectable assist totals for a Center. Tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers will be a pace way up for the San Antonio Spurs, so there will be more opportunities for assists, and rebounds. The Lakers are in the bottom 10 in the league when it comes to allowing opponent assists, so that should give Gasol’s fantasy value a healthy boost. The only drawback to this matchup is the possibility of a blowout, but Las Vegas currently has this game projected with the Spurs as only -6.5 favorites with a 207.5 overall total, so the game should remain within parameters to allow for full starters minutes. This is also the same Lakers team that beat a healthy Golden State Warriors team a couple of weeks ago, so they certainly have the right tools to make wins difficult for any opponent.