NBA GPP Contrarian Picks

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NBA GPP Contrarian Picks – Wednesday 11/16/16

Point Guard

Chalk:

Russell Westbrook ($11,900 DK / $11,500 FD)

James Harden on DraftKings ($12,200 DK)

Contrarian:

John Wall ($9,200 DK / $8,900 FD)

This is most certainly a top heavy slate, and some of the superstars will automatically go overlooked with so many top options clogging up everything. John Wall is in a position where the majority of daily fantasy players will be on the Russell Westbrook/James Harden matchup, and many of them will try combining the two. Whether, or not combining these options will be a winning strategy remains to be seen, but it will be extraordinarily difficult to roster a third superstar along with them. Wall is also in the middle of a plethora of other point guard options, so while his matchup with Philidelphia might be one of the most favorable on the slate, his ownership should be low. Wall plays with a driving style where he tries to get to the basket, or post up for mid-range shots while also distributing the ball for open looks from other teammates. Most of his fantasy production is in real scoring, and assists, but he also grabs a moderate amount of rebounds as well. The defense vs. position chart shows that the 76ers have been good at limiting points, and rebounds from the point guard position, but the game statistics heavily favor a point guard with Wall’s driving, distributing style. Philadelphia awards opponents the 7^th most shot attempts (89.2), 2^nd highest shot percentage (47.3%), 4^th most assists (24.6), 7^th most total rebounds (46.8), and 4^th most points in the paint (48.0) to add up to the 5^th most points allowed (108.9) in the league. The statistics back up the reason why Wall was able to shred Philadelphia last year averaging over 50 fantasy points per game. They are vulnerable to basket attacking finishers who can find open guys for perimeter shots, and Wall might be the best in the league when it comes to combining those two attributes. This game is currently projected with a modest 204 overall total, but has Washington as only a -5.5 favorite, so it should remain close allowing all players their normal allotment of minutes, and Wall plenty of time to feast on the 76ers.

Shooting Guard

Chalk:

James Harden ($12,200 DK / $11,500 FD)

DeMar DeRozan ($8,600 DK / $9,200 FD)

Contrarian:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,000 DK / $4,800 FD)

Caldwell-Pope is the Detroit Piston’s designated 3-point shooter, and so far on the year 43% of his 11.6 shots per game are coming from beyond the arc. He is also averaging five more minutes of court time in away games as opposed to when he plays at home, so the opportunity will be there. Defensively, the Knicks are weakest at allowing fantasy production to opposing shooting guards as they give up over 10% more production to the shooting guard position that league average. They allow those fantasy points to be generated mostly from real points as well as rebounds which are the two stats Caldwell-Pope needs to make value. Statistically, the Knicks give up the 11^th most 3-point attempts (27.1 per game) to go along with the 12^th highest 3-point percentage (35.1%). The Knicks also give up the 7^th most free throw attempts (27.4) per game which Caldwell-Pope could benefit from as well considering he gets to the free throw line multiple times per game. The last time out against this Knicks team, Caldwell-Pope posted a 19/3/3 line in 34 minutes which was good for nearly 30 fantasy points on both DraftKings, and FanDuel. If his 3-point shot is falling, he has a great chance to beat that line tonight

Small Forward

Chalk:

LeBron James ($9,800 DK / $9,900 FD)

Kevin Durant ($9,500 DK / $9,600 FD)

Otto Porter ($6,500 DK / $6,300 FD)

Contrarian:

Kawhi Leonard ($8,700 DK / $8,500 FD)

Leonard would normally be highly owned on most slates, but there are a lot of superstars as well as value options tonight, and he has had a down few games over the last ten days with multiple nights below 30 fantasy points in that time span, so his ownership should be depressed. He gets to go against the Sacramento Kings tonight which should give the two-time Defensive Player of the Year a great matchup to turn it around. The game itself will play slowly as two of the bottom five slowest teams in the league are facing off, but such a style of play benefits San Antonio because they like to work the ball around being selective with their shots rather than employing a more run-and-gun offense. The Kings do not allow an inordinate amount of shot attempts per game because of their slow pace, but they do permit the 5^th highest field goal percentage (46.2%) on the limited shots they do allow, so Leonard should get plenty of open, uncontested looks which would benefit his shooting percentage. The Kings also foul often giving up the 5^th most (27.9) free throw attempts per game, and Leonard relies upon getting to the line multiple times per game in order to assist his field goal totals. The game sets up for Leonard to score plenty of real points, but he should also have chances for rebounds because the Spurs are a far better rebounding team than the Kings, and Sacramento allows over 3% more rebounds to the small forward position than league average. Leonard’s price has not come down at all during this recent drought, but there is little reason to be afraid he will not exceed value tonight.

Power Forward

Chalk:

Anthony Davis ($10,900 DK / $11,400 FD)

Kristaps Porzingis ($6,900 DK / $6,900 FD)

Contrarian:

Kenneth Faried ($5,500 DK / $6,000 FD)

Faried has seen a major bump in his pricing on FD since last game, and there are a multitude of options at Power Forward tonight, so players should be looking to spend down elsewhere on the slate keeping his ownership low. Kenneth Faried is a true boom, or bust option who is generally more bust than boom, but he can put up $7,000-$8,000 player type value when he is on his game. Denver has all but ended their experiment of running Nikola Jokic alongside starting center Jusuf Nurkic, so Faried should be seeing a more stable spot in the starting lineup going forward. Faried is an energy player who does better in fast paced games where he can get involved in both the offensive, and defensive side of the game as he generates most of his fantasy production from points/rebounds, but also a healthy amount of blocks to go along with free throws. The matchup with the Phoenix Suns will be played at a frenetic pace as both teams are two of the top ten fastest in the league, so Faried should feel comfortable running around the entire time. The Suns give up the 8^th most field goal attempts (88.3) because they play so fast, but they also allow a huge 46% shooting from the floor meaning opposing shots are largely uncontested. The Nuggets have the best rebound rate in the league, so the rebounds should be available, but apart from the real scoring/rebounding possibility, the two main statistics which benefit Faried are the amount of free throws, and blocks the Suns allow which should help push him past making value. Phoenix allows the most free throw attempts in the league (30.9 per game), and also the second most blocks (6.7 per game) to opponents, so Faried should be able to get to the free throw line with relative ease as well as swat away shot a couple of attempts. His floor will likely be somewhere in the 4x range with a 6.5x ceiling on FanDuel. DraftKings would be a little higher than that considering his price is lower, and there are stat bonuses.

Center

Chalk:

DeMarcus Cousins ($8,900 DK / $9,600 FD)

Joel Embiid ($6,100 DK / $5,600 FD)

Contrarian:

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

Valanciunas is an option that very few people will be on tonight, but this is a great matchup for him against the Golden State Warriors. The main benefit that Valanciunas should see tonight is the neutralization of DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan will be running into one of the best positional defenders in the league in Klay Thompson which shows because the Warriors give up over 5% less real scoring to the Shooting Guard position than the league average, and DeRozan is not very effective if he is not scoring. The offense should start flowing more to the inside as the game progresses giving Valanciunas more offensive opportunites in a game that will be way up in pace, and the rebounds will be there considering over 170 overall shots will be taken if averages hold. From a fantasy standpoint, the Warriors are extremely weak on the inside, and give up 9% more production to opposing centers than league average. That extra production comes largely in the way of real points, and rebounds which is basically all Valanciunas does while on the court. His price leaves a little to be desired, but it has stayed around the $6,000 mark because of his stable floor, and it still leaves some room for a very respectable 6-6.5x ceiling.