Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 48.5
• Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals - Over/Under 49.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Ravens at home vs. Raiders - Implied Team Total 25.5
• Chargers on road vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 22.5
• Giants on road vs. Commanders - Implied Team Total 20.5
• Lions at home vs. Buccaneers - Implied Team Total 28.8
• Cowboys at home vs. Saints - Implied Team Total 26
• 49ers on road vs. Vikings - Implied Team Total 25.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

The Ravens are 9.5-point home favorites and Lamar Jackson has an unimposing matchup against an average Raiders defense. Jackson always offers dual-threat upside and reminded us of that in the opener, carrying 16 times for 122 yards.

Kyler Murray is at home against an average Rams defense, offers dual-threat upside, and is $1,100 cheaper than Lamar Jackson.

Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins was one of the best storylines of Week 1. He turned 10 carries into 135 yards and 1 touchdown and also caught all three of his targets. I don't know how he's doing it but for now, he looks healthy and solid. The Chargers are 6.5-point favorites and Dobbins gets a Panthers defense that ranked 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed last season. They lost their best player, defensive lineman Derrick Brown, for the season in Week 1.

Breece Hall saw 22 opportunities in Week 1, which tied for eighth most in the league. He ranked 17th in opportunities per game (17.4) last season while returning from a torn ACL. He's extremely talented, is a dual-threat, and his extreme volume is locked in.

Alvin Kamara ranked fifth in the league in opportunities per game (20.5) and 14th in total yards per game (89.2) last season. His dual-threat ability pairs perfectly with Derek Carr's preference to throw short and intermediate passes, which helped him rack up games of 13 and 12 receptions in 2023. Kamara saw his usual workload, 20 opportunities, in Week 1 to begin this season. He'll be needed as a dual-threat if the Saints hope to keep pace with the Cowboys.

It appears Rachaad White is going to lose some early down work to rookie Bucky Irving this season. But that shouldn't be a problem in this one. White caught all 6 of his targets for 75 yards in Week 1 and his receiving skills will be needed on this one. The Buccaneers are seven-point road underdogs against the Lions. Let's remember White has some room to give up touches. He ranked sixth in opportunities per game (19.9) in 2023.

Jordan Love is officially listed as questionable but we all know he's not going to play. With Malik Willis behind center, look for the Packers offense to ride Josh Jacobs in this matchup. Jacobs is at home and has a solid matchup against a Colts defense that ranked 25th in Rush EPA Allowed last year.

Ken Walker III is doubtful due to an oblique injury, which means Zach Charbonnet projects for a monster workload this week. I was a big fan of his game coming out of college:

Charbonnet has some Nick Chubb to his game, and they have very similar heights and weights, with Charbonnet being 6-foot-0 and 214 pounds. Charbonnet has exciting athleticism for a player as big, physical, and tough as he is. He's decisive as he gets north and south quickly, breaks tackles, and also has the ability to make defenders miss (impressive stutter steps in the open field). Charbonnet produced as a true freshman at Michigan back in 2019, running for 726 yards and 11 touchdowns, but it wasn't until he transferred to UCLA in 2021 that his collegiate career took off. In his junior and senior seasons at UCLA, Charbonnet totaled 2,496 rushing yards, 27 rushing touchdowns, 61 receptions, and 518 receiving yards. Charbonnet doesn't profile as a receiving back, but those 61 catches in two years help his case of being a workhorse/250+ touch player in the NFL, which is absolutely in his range of outcomes.

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua is out and Cooper Kupp is healthy. Kupp saw 21 targets and also received two carries in Week 1. Those 23 opportunities ranked tied for fifth in the entire NFL! This one is easy.

The Commanders defense is downright horrendous. They ranked dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last year and followed that up in Week 1 by allowing 289 passing yards and 4 pass touchdowns to Baker Mayfield of all quarterbacks. Malik Nabers is an elite prospect and in a great spot this week to put his talent on full display against an extremely weak secondary.

Garrett Wilson saw 11 targets in Week 1 which tied for the third most. Mike Williams is weeks away from being even remotely close to a full-time player. That means Wilson's only real competition for targets is Breece Hall and Allen Lazard. Wilson projects to continue to see double-digit targets, which is the kind of volume safety we're looking for in cash.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will both continue to be on the DFS map weekly as long as Baker Mayfield continues his career renaissance in Tampa. Both wide receivers are in play but Godwin is significantly cheaper so we're highlighting him here. Godwin ran a route on 28 of 33 dropbacks in Week 1, which was one more route than Evans. Godwin caught all eight of his targets and half of those came when he was lined up in the slot. We love to see those easy completions in DraftKings' full PPR scoring. Godwin will be needed if the Buccaneers hope to keep pace with Detroit.

Puka Nacua's injury is massive for Demarcus Robinson, who allows pricing flexibility since he's affordable at just $4,000. Robinson ran a route on 47 of 51 dropbacks in Week 1 and saw seven targets. And then there's Tyler Johnson who's a bit riskier but allows for even more salary savings priced at just $3,300. Johnson is reportedly Nacua's direct backup. Johnson ended up running a route on 33 of 51 dropbacks and turning seven targets into 5 receptions for 79 yards, They're both in a very favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranked 31st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last season.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers is one of the best tight end prospects of all time and even though it's just one week it appears there won't be much of a rookie learning curve for him in the NFL. Bowers ran a route on 31 of 40 dropbacks and caught six of eight targets in Week 1. Eight targets for any tight end is phenomenal usage. Bowers is affordable and will be needed as the Raiders project to be playing from behind for a large portion of this game on the road against Baltimore.

Colby Parkinson was rested all preseason and we know what that means when you play for Sean McVay: You're a starter and expected to contribute a lot. That was confirmed in Week 1 when Parkinson ran a route on 42 of 51 dropbacks and caught for of his five targets in Week 1. Puka Nacua's absence should only help Parkinson's usage. He's priced at just $3,100 in a good matchup making him a very solid cash play.

Team Defenses

I had high hopes for Bryce Young coming into the NFL. And I had high hopes for him having a better second season under new head coach Dave Canales who helped turn around Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield's careers over the past two seasons. Week 1 results: 13 of 30 for 161 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and sacked 4 times. The Chargers D/ST is a very strong play.

Jordan Love is officially listed as questionable but we all know he's not going to play. With Malik Willis behind center, look for the Colts D/ST to feast. Willis can't play. In limited game action over the past two years, he has thrown zero touchdowns, three interceptions, and been sacked 15 times.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Bengals at Chiefs is the game of the week. Point blank. Patrick Mahomes II ranked ninth in both passing yards per game (261.4) and pass touchdowns per game (1.7) last season and gets to play at home against a favorable matchup. The Bengals defense ranked just 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season and just got shredded in the opener by the Patriots.

We have to go back to 2022 but Joe Burrow did show his elite ceiling that season, ranking fourth in DraftKings points per game (22.8) in 17 games. For whatever reason he and the Bengals offense have started slow over the past few seasons but that narrative is out there. As is the narrative about his wrist being less than 100%. Expect Burrow's ownership percentages to be incredibly low. That's exciting for a player in the best fantasy game of the week who has already demonstrated an elite fantasy ceiling.

Anthony Richardson is 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds and tested out of this world at the combine. He ran a 4.43 40-yard dash (fourth-best among quarterbacks since 2003), posted a 40 1/2-inch vertical jump (best among quarterbacks since 2003), and logged a 10-foot-9 broad jump (best among quarterbacks since 2003). Simply put, Richardson is the most athletic quarterback in NFL history. Richardson offers things that can't be taught: Size, athleticism, and flick of the wrist deep arm talent. He put that all on display last week, running for 56 yards and a touchdown and throwing one of the most beautiful deep touchdown passes you will ever see. He's in a good spot here against a Packers defense that only ranked 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th iN Dropback EPA Allowed a season ago.

Jayden Daniels is at home in just about one of the only games the Commanders are going to be favored in all season. The Giants defense only ranked 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed in 2023 and Daniels just carried the ball 16 times for 88 yards and 2 scores in his NFL debut.

Daniel Jones is terrible. I hate this. I can't believe I'm typing this. But Jones can be a terrible player and pay off in tournaments this week. Both can be true! The main reason why is the matchup Jones has in front of him. The Commanders defense is downright horrendous. They ranked dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed last year and followed that up in Week 1 by allowing 289 passing yards and 4 pass touchdowns to Baker Mayfield of all quarterbacks. Jones is priced at just $5,300 and offers rushing upside.

Running Backs

It's remarkable how many people didn't do their research and were out on Kyren Williams this season. Blake Corum does project to earn a role this season but didn't receive a single touch in Week 1. As for Williams? He led the entire NFL in opportunities per game (23), ranked third in total yards per game (112.5), and ranked third in total touchdowns (15) last season. Williams is an incredible running back who ranked 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.34), fourth in missed tackles forced (rushing + receiving) per game (4.5), eighth in explosive runs (10+ Yard Runs) (26), eighth in rush yards over expected per attempt (+0.49), and 15th in PFF Elusive Rating (69.3). And he picked up right where he left off last season seeing 21 opportunities in Week 1. He's a strong tournament play against a Cardinals defense that ranked 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed last season.

Isiah Pacheco is a strong tournament play after this Bengals defense just allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to rip them for 120 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground in Week 1. Pacheco ranked 11th in opportunities per game (18.1) last season and kept that incredible role in Week 1, playing on 80% of the snaps and running a route on 71% of dropbacks.

Despite scoring a touchdown in his first game with the Ravens, Derrick Henry disappointed fantasy managers by seeing no targets and being utilized in very few passing situations. That shouldn't be a problem in this one as the Ravens are 9.5-point home favorites. Henry has three-touchdown upside.

The Buccaneers have a strong run defense, which should cause Ben Johnson to attack the edges of their defense on the ground and through the air via Jahmyr Gibbs in this one. Gibbs could be a tournament-winning pick this week if that prediction comes to pass. Gibbs is uber-talented playing in one of the best offenses in football.

Jordan Love is officially listed as questionable, but we all know he's not going to play. This severely limits Green Bay's offense as Malik Willis projects to be under center. The Colts should control this game and are 3.5-point favorites despite being on the road. It's lined up perfectly for Jonathan Taylor to smash. Taylor ranked 14th in opportunities per game (17.8) last season and played on 96% of the snaps in Week 1. He's a true workhorse.

James Conner ranked 16th in the NFL in opportunities per game (17.5) a season ago and just saw 20 opportunities in Week 1. He's a workhorse in a run-first offense and the Cardinals are 1.5-point home favorites.

Christian McCaffrey is out. Jordan Mason is a phenomenal play but he projects to be very, very high-owned. I'm highlighting him in the tournament portion of this article though because high ownership doesn't mean we can't play him in tournaments. We just have to understand we must get creative and unique elsewhere in our lineups to offset that massive Mason ownership. Mason is talented and playing in the right offense and with the right coach. Mason saw the second most opportunities (29) in Week 1 and turned them into 152 total yards and 1 touchdown. The 49ers are 5.5-point favorites against an average Vikings team.

The Chargers are 6.5-point favorites and Dobbins gets a Panthers defense that ranked 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed last season. They lost their best player, defensive lineman Derrick Brown, for the season in Week 1. J.K. Dobbins is rightfully getting all of the headlines but this is where we sneak in and roster Gus Edwards at low ownership. Like Dobbins, Edwards is in the same amazing spot and Edwards saw 12 opportunities of his own in Week 1. He offers touchdown upside via goal-line usage.

Wide Receivers

It looks like Tee Higgins is going to miss another game. Drown out the noise. Forget the Bengals' slow start. Forget Ja'Marr Chase didn't receive the contract he was looking for before the season. And just lock in on this week. Despite barely practicing at all leading up to Week 1, Chase was not limited. He ran a route on 31 of 35 dropbacks and caught all six of his targets. This is the Bengals and Chiefs rivalry we're talking about here. Chase is going to be absolutely fed in this matchup, especially since Higgins won't be on the other side of the formation to command targets. Chase is my tournament play of the week.

Marquise Brown is now on Injured Reserve. Rashee Rice is going to smash all year unless he's suspended, but it sounds like the odds of that happening before 2025 are very low at this point. Rice caught seven of his nine targets for 103 yards in the opener and should keep his momentum going in a great fantasy game against a Bengals defense that ranked just 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season and just got shredded in the opener by the Patriots.

Justin Jefferson offers tournament-winning upside every week as we all know. Jordan Addison is out and the Vikings are 5.5-point underdogs. Minnesota is going to have to throw to keep up with the 49ers so their game script shouldn't look anything like it did last week when they blew out the hapless Giants. Jefferson has 15+ target upside in this spot at home in the dome. And literally, Allen Lazard of all players just put up 89 yards and 2 touchdowns on this same 49ers defense.

Christian McCaffrey's absence is massive for dual-threat Deebo Samuel Sr.. He received eight carries and scored a rushing touchdown in Week 1 to go along with his receiving prowess. While the spotlight is squarely on Jordan Mason right now (And rightfully so), it's a good time to roster Samuel in tournaments because a massive, massive game is coming for him sooner rather than later without McCaffrey in the lineup.

CeeDee Lamb is a monster. He ranked second in targets per game (10.5), second in receptions per game (7.6), second in receiving yards per game (103.2), fifth in yards per route run (2.78), second in target share (30%), and third in targets per route run (28%) last year. He's at home against an average Saints defense and projects to see even more targets with Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson doubtful to suit up in this one.

Amon-Ra St. Brown caught just three passes for 13 yards last week. Womp womp. This is a great opportunity to zoom out instead of giving into recency bias. St. Brown has posted seasons of 90-912-6, 106-1,161-6, and 119-1,515-10 to begin his NFL career. He ranked fifth in targets per game (10.3), third in receptions per game (7.5), fifth in receiving yards per game (91.4), sixth in yards per route run (2.63), fifth in target share (29%), and fifth in targets per route run (27%) last season. There are no questions about St. Brown's game at all. He's elite. Weird things happen in Week 1 every year. Play him at low ownership in tournaments this week at home in a great matchup against a Buccaneers defense that only ranked 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed last season.

This is a bit more of a stretch since Terry McLaurin only saw four targets last week but from a tournament perspective, he makes sense. McLaurin is a good downfield receiver and rookie Jayden Daniels throws a strong deep ball. If the two can connect on a few deep shots McLaurin could find himself in winning lineups at very low ownership percentages. The Giants defense only ranked 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed in 2023 so there is some hope this could happen.

This Bengals at Chiefs game is the fantasy game of the weekend, which projects to prop up the value of secondary and tertiary receivers. Andre Iosivas projects to benefit in a huge way from the projected absence once again of Tee Higgins. Iosivas ran a route on 100% of dropbacks and saw six targets last week. And then of course we know the story with Xavier Worthy. He's a threat to score any time he touches the ball with his speed in the Chiefs offense. We saw him take it to the house twice in the opener.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce turns 35 in October so we worry about age with him this season. Yet, it's only Week 2, Marquise Brown is on Injured Reserve, and the Chiefs are at home in the fantasy game of the week playing against their rival the Bengals. The Bengals defense ranked just 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season and just got shredded in the opener by the Patriots. This is a great spot to win with Kelce before the longevity of the season starts to take a toll on him.

The extreme overreaction regarding Mark Andrews on opening night has been interesting to see. Casual fantasy players see Isaiah Likely posting a huge game and think it's a negative on Andrews because they play the same position. Wrong. Likely ran a route on 35 of 51 dropbacks and saw 12 targets. That's amazing! But Andrews ran a route on 38 of 51 dropbacks. Andrews' role in this offense is going absolutely nowhere. Instead, the Ravens offense looks to be prioritizing playing both Andrews and Likely together, which is exactly what they should be doing! Andrews has a big game coming soon and if it happens this week you'll almost certainly get it at low ownership.

Trey McBride saw nine targets in the opener and heralded rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. disappointed. McBride's outlook looks better moving forward and it already looked awesome entering the season.

The absence of Christian McCaffrey and the continual ramping up of Brandon Aiyuk who barely practiced all training camp are both positives for the target outlook of George Kittle in the short term. This offense is elite and has the opportunity to prop up huge fantasy performances.

Team Defenses

Gardner Minshew II is the perfect quarterback to attack in tournaments. He's just competent enough to be given the keys to the offense when the Raiders are in pass-heavy situations and just bad enough for great things to happen for our D/ST in those spots. The Ravens are 9.5-point home favorites and their defense won't be kind to Minshew.

Deshaun Watson is an abomination at this point. He threw two interceptions and was sacked six times in Week 1 after putting abysmal film together in 2023. The Jaguars are 3.5-point home favorites in this one.

Justin Fields seems to be getting a lot of positive press these days and I get it, almost anyone is going to seem better than Russell Wilson at this point. But Fields was traded for basically nothing because he can't consistently operate an offense at the NFL level. Even in the Steelers Week 1 victory he only threw for 156 yards and no touchdowns. The Broncos defense will get after him at home.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Christian McCaffrey OUT - Upgrade Jordan Mason
• Puka Nacua OUT - Upgrade Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, and Tyler Johnson
• Kenneth Walker Doubtful - Upgrade Zach Charbonnet
• Jordan Addison OUT - Upgrade Justin Jefferson, Jailen Nailor, and Aaron Jones
• Marquise Brown OUT - Upgrade Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, and Justin Watson
• Tee Higgins Doubtful - Upgrade Ja'Marr Chase and Andre Iosivas
• Jordan Love Questionable (But we all know he's not going to play) - Upgrade Colts D/ST
• Jake Ferguson Doubtful - Upgrade CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase Runback Options: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and/or Xavier Worthy
• Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy Runback Options: Ja'Marr Chase and/or Andre Iosivas

Flag Plant Cash Play

• Cooper Kupp
• J.K. Dobbins
• Colby Parkinson

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Ja'Marr Chase
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Joe Burrow
• Travis Kelce
• Rashee Rice