The month that encompasses training camp and the first three weeks of the preseason is must-see TV for any fantasy football player. We come into the summer with a set of assumptions and beliefs about the NFL, and each successive day changes the landscape and forces us to re-examine our strategies and rankings going into our drafts. What do we think we know at this crucial juncture before the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year?
Atlanta
QB: If Matt Ryan can iron out the duds he had last year against Oakland and Arizona at home, he could approach Brees/Peyton level value this year, but there are some questions about his offensive line. He’s a decent target around the sixth round, especially in six point per pass touchdown leagues.
RB: Steven Jackson wasn’t spectacular in the preseason, in fact, he looked like a 30-year old running back. Still, Michael Turner was in the top seven among running backs in red zone opportunities last year, and Jackson is clearly better than Turner was last year. He’s a relatively safe RB2 in the early second….Jackson’s advanced age and the productive nature of the RB1 role here should make Jacquizz Rodgers a target in the back half of your draft whether you took Jackson earlier or not. He might even get enough receptions to be gain flex consideration in PPR leagues.
WR: Another preseason, another month of Julio Jones hype. He has the physical potential and situation to be right behind Calvin Johnson (and maybe Dez Bryant) when the season ends, but he tends to get nicked up and underperform without warning. He’s still only a third-round pick on my board….Roddy White’s ankle injury hasn’t gotten much ink, and well, since he has never missed a game in his career, maybe it shouldn’t. I still like Larry Fitzgerald better if you are going wide receiver in the third….Harry Douglas is the only other NFL-caliber wide receiver on the roster, but I haven’t seen signs that he could put up fantasy relevant numbers if one of the starters go down. Look for Atlanta to target some final wide receiver cuts from other teams.
TE: Tony Gonzalez rolled into camp exactly when he wanted to, just like a future hall of famer in his last season should. He offers little upside from his 2012 numbers, but those are top five tight end numbers, and I’m seeing him fall to the sixth or even seventh round at times. I can’t pass that up if I didn’t land Graham or Gronkowski.
Carolina
QB: I can’t say that I’ve gotten warm, fuzzy feelings from watching Cam Newton in the preseason. Taking some of the read option runs out of the offense hurts his upside, and his secondary receivers are still underwhelming. I wouldn’t target Newton if I wanted to take one of the first five quarterbacks off of the board.
RB: Dr. Jene Bramel told us back in early July that we should be worried about Jonathan Stewart’s ankles and now we’re not even sure whether he is going to play at any point this year. DeAngelo Williams is a nice mid-low RB2 to target in the 6th/7th as your RB3 or part of a RB2BC, but he is not a big passcatcher out of the backfield, and he might still be nothing more than option 2B at the goal line. He won’t be a savior for your backfield….Mike Tolbert is now rosterable again as a good receiver and short-yardage back, in addition to being a DeAngelo Williams injury away from a lot of carries….Kenjon Barner is banged up, but he would conceivably be next man up if Williams and Tolbert go down.
WR: Steve Smith could get a boost from more pocket passing and better overall play from Newton. He’s a nice WR3 to target in the sixth round, where his boom/bust profile will be mitigated by two more consistent options in your lineup every week….Brandon LaFell had another terrible drop in the third preseason game, making hard to trust him to be more than he has been in the past - a sometimes contributor who is not a mainstay in the target pecking order. Armanti Edwards is set up to be the #3 receiver, so don’t look for fantasy relevance here beyond Smith.
TE: LaFell’s struggles could help Olsen move up to solid mid-TE1 level production. He’s not going to approach 100 receptions, but 1,000 yards is not impossible, and 6-8 touchdowns is very attainable. If he’s still there in ninth round and you don’t have Gronkowski or Graham, Olsen is worth a spot.
New Orleans
QB: With Sean Payton back in the mix, it’s hard to argue against Drew Brees as the #1 quarterback in fantasy drafts this year. Kenny Stills and Nick Toon look ready to contribute and the offensive line should be passable despite the loss of Jermon Bushrod. The Saints defense remains a work in progress, which will force Brees to put up a lot of points to win games. He will.
RB: I’ll admit it, Mark Ingram looks healthier, sprier and more ready to be a part of the passing game than he has during the first two years of his NFL career. It’s still really hard to trust this team to give him or Pierre Thomas a stable enough role to count on as more than a flex in your lineup. If Ingram is still staring at me in the ninth round and I only have two running backs, I’ll consider him, but the disappointments of the last two years are hard to leave behind….Darren Sproles is set up for another low RB1 season in PPR leagues that you can get for an RB2 price near the turn in the second round….The Saints have not seemed inclined to expand the roles of their core trio of backs even when one of them gets hurt, so expect guys like Travaris Cadet and/or Khiry Robinson to get work in the even of a New Orleans running back injury.
WR: Marques Colston might not be 100% from a foot issue, but we have watched him produce through various nicks and dings enough through the years to still trust him as a high WR2 in fourth round. If you do want to bet on his breaking down this year, take Nick Toon in the very late rounds, or at least keep him on waiver wire speed dial….Lance Moore is a solid WR3, but it’s hard to see him being more than that. Even when Darren Sproles was out last year, his numbers didn’t jump significantly. Add in the emergence of Kenny Stills as a “Lance Moore with speed” receiver, and Moore is a somewhat boring high floor/low ceiling option that is going a round or two before when I would take him….As for Stills, he should also be on your waiver wire speed dial as a receiver who might take the Devery Henderson role and do even more with it than Joseph Morgan would have. Stills’ value is on the rise in dynasty leagues, and he could be a redraft factor if Colston or Moore go down.
TE: Jimmy Graham is primed for a career year for of the same reasons that Drew Brees should produce some of the best numbers of his career. The wrist injury that plagued Graham’s 2012 campaign has been surgically repaired, and he is now squarely in his prime in only his fifth year of big-time football. Please don’t pass on him in the second round of PPR leagues.
Tampa Bay
QB: Don’t you just get the feeling Josh Freeman is going to be the same guy yet again? Big games, big numbers at the end of the season, but you’re not quite sure what you’re going to get in any given play or game. He’s still just a QB2, although I’m open to revising him to low QB1 level if he runs more instinctively when the play breaks down and takes to Mike Sullivan’s offense in his second year in the system.
RB: There’s not much to say about Doug Martin other than the fact that he is the safest running back to pick in the 2-6 range. Spiller, McCoy, Charles, and Richardson all have durability questions of some sort, although they all have higher ceilings than Martin, too. Take out his massive outburst vs. Oakland and Martin was a very good, but not elite fantasy RB1 last year. I expect more of the same this year….It looks like sixth-round pick Mike James will be the backup to Martin, although I’m not sure enough of his talent or role to recommend taking him in your end game RB strategy.
WR: Like Freeman, Vincent Jackson just needs consistency to make that next step to being one of the 12 best options in fantasy at his position. The problem is that it’s Freeman who must make that step, not Jackson. He remains a solid fourth-round pick who is not likely to greatly over or underproduce his draft slot. I would recommend a “high floor” WR2 to pair with him like Antonio Brown over a more volatile option like Pierre Garcon….Mike Williams got his new deal and didn’t particularly flash in the preseason, although he was trending closer to Jackson’s production levels as the season went on last year. Williams is a great value in the ninth round, where I am seeing him fall in a lot of drafts….Kevin Ogletree is probably the #3 receiver, but he doesn’t have the same big jumpball game as Jackson and Williams and might be not that productive if he is pushed into a starting position at any point this year.
TE: It’s rare that we write off a position for a team, but Luke Stocker is one of the least talented starting tight ends, and this offense has limited use for the tight end as a receiver. Look elsewhere for your deep sleeper tight end.