Ace’s Aces
As we move onto Week 17, I wanted to take a minute and thank you all for reading this column throughout the season. It’s been a fun ride, and I hope all of you had a successful season.
Week 17 is a difficult one to predict. There are teams playing one game that will decide their entire season, while others have little to nothing to play for. The best way to navigate this week is to lessen your exposure in cash games, as this is where we tend to play high-floor guys. I have picked out several games where the game script and players are easier to predict, and I have included those players in this week’s column. This will help you avoid the hidden landmines, which will be a big part of having success this week.
Let’s get to it…
Quarterback (Cash/GPP)
Cam Newton (vs Tampa Bay) Price: $7100
I would not be surprised at all to see Cam Newton win the NFL MVP this year, he has been that good. In addition to leading Carolina to a 14-1 record, Newton has been a dynamite fantasy quarterback. He is currently the #1 overall quarterback, and barring a week 17 meltdown, combined with a monster game from Tom Brady, Russell Wilson or Blake Bortles, Cam should finish the season that way. He set a career highs in passing touchdowns (33), which is saying something considering his top target from a year ago (Kelvin Benjamin), did not play a down in 2015. Newton has been incredible on the ground, totaling 636 yards rushing to go along with eight touchdowns. He has become a complete quarterback and in the process, become one of my favorite quarterbacks to deploy in cash games and GPP’s. His salary isn’t cheap, but he provides an anchor for your team that you desperately need in cash games. Aside from high, stable floor, Newton has proven he has a high ceiling to match, scoring 33 or more points in five different games this year. This week Carolina hosts a Tampa Bay team that is ahead of schedule in the maturation process of Jameis Winston. As good as Carolina is, Tampa Bay will play hard and that should keep the game from getting out of hand. If Carolina were to lose, and Arizona were to win, it would be the Cardinals who had home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This is a must-win game for a Panthers team that needs to get over the hump in the NFC, so I have no qualms about depending on Newton, Greg Olsen or Cameron Artis-Payne this week.
Quarterback (GPP)
Blake Bortles (@ Houston) Price: $6400
As I mentioned last week, Bortles became my quarterback crush of 2015. He’s made tremendous strides over the 2015 season, and changed the perception of whether he could become a franchise signal caller. As far as I’m concerned, he’s already there. Bortles currently ranks as the #3 fantasy quarterback, and sits 2nd in passing touchdowns (34), 6th in passing yards (4,189) and 6th in rushing yards for a quarterback (310). The Jaguars have a young, exciting offense, with Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas providing top tier talent for Bortles to work with. Bortles has become somewhat of a gun slinger over the second half of the season, including five consecutive weeks of 25+ points. He has a tough week 17 matchup against a solid Houston defense, but if we are looking for the teams that will play their starters throughout the game, the Jaguars fit the ball as a team I want to target. Aside from Bortles, Robinson, Hurns, Thomas and Denard Robinson are all plays that I would recommend. Play Bortles with confidence in GPP’s this week.
Aaron Rodgers (vs Minnesota) Price: $6650
Rodgers has been conspicuously absent from this column for the better half of this season, however I am looking to him in week 17 due to what is on the line against the Vikings. Green Bay hosts Minnesota in a win and get in game, so this is a particularly juicy matchup given the different lines you can take when rostering players from either of the two teams. I prefer to bet on Rodgers in these pressure situations. He is a two time MVP, and has the Super Bowl ring to prove he is the type of player that shines when the lights get the brightest. Losing Jordy Nelson was a death blow to the Green Bay offense, and it didn’t help that Davante Adams has either been injured, or played like he was, for most of the season. Rodgers has continued to spread the ball around though, making the most out of cast-off turned home town hero, James Jones, while turning Richard Rodgers into a legitimate starting tight end. The Minnesota defense is a big part of why they are playing for a division title on Sunday, but they will have their work cut out for them trying to slow down Rodgers and company. I am leaning towards Rodgers in GPP’s for two main reasons. First, he is coming off one of the worst games of his career against the Cardinals, where he threw one interception and lost three fumbles. Those are the type of mistakes that Rodgers has made a living out of avoiding, but his ownership rate will take a big hit. When you combine the fact that he will be low owned, in a game where he will need to play his best for the Packers to win, I am looking more towards his ceiling than anything else. Don’t be fooled, he hasn’t had many great games this year, but he still possesses one of the higher ceilings amongst quarterbacks, especially when Eddie Lacy continues to be inconsistent. The Packers need to lean on Rodgers, and I will be doing the same.
Running Back (Cash)
David Johnson (vs Seattle) Price: $5200
If you follow this column regularly, you’ll know that Johnson is one of my favorite players to recommend for cash games and GPP’s. He runs with an impressive blend of speed and power, and is a natural pass catcher in an offense that can get very pass heavy at times. Throw in big play potential, and you have a guy who should be a star in this league as early as next season. His week 15 coming out party against the Eagles, was the best game turned in by a running back this season (187 yards rushing, three touchdowns and four catches for 42 yards). Johnson has seen his ownership rise sharply over the last two weeks, but I will not be surprised if that number drops off dramatically against the Seahawks #1 ranked rush defense. I am firm believer that talent trumps all, so in this case I won’t be scared off by a tough Seattle defense. Johnson will see a high volume of touches and that should be enough on its own to have him crack the top 5 at the running back position this week. There are not many other options at running back that I feel strongly about, so once again, I will have heavy exposure to Johnson. This is a game that should be highly contested, leading to an array of fantasy studs seeing a full complement of touches. In addition to Johnson, I would look to other players (Carson Palmer, John Brown, Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin) on Seattle and Arizona to lead your teams this weekend.
DeAngelo Williams (@ Cleveland) Price: $5600
The Steelers let a golden chance at a playoff spot split through their fingers in what was one of the more perplexing performances in week 16. The loss to Baltimore was hardly Williams fault though, as he was the single best offensive player on the field. Williams finished with 100 yards rushing and two touchdowns, while chipping in six catches for 53 yards in the passing game. This marked the fifth multi-touchdown game of Williams’ season, and it would be hard pressed to expect more out of Leveon Bell, if he were healthy. Williams has been a revelation for the Steelers, and in many ways saved their season after Bell went down with a season ending injury. Despite playing several games as a backup, Williams has scored the 4th most fantasy points at the running back position. He’s rushed for 899 yards on only 199 carries (4.6 ypc), scored eleven rushing touchdowns while chipping in 38 catches for 354 yards through the air. The eleven touchdowns is the second highest total of Williams’ career. This week the Steelers travel to Cleveland to take on a disappointing Browns team. Cleveland’s rush defense is ranked in the bottom half of the league, although they have played better against the run over the last couple of weeks. This should be a game where the Steelers move the ball through the air with ease, so I am expecting Williams to see several red zone touches, and to convert at least one of those touches for a touchdown. Williams is averaging 24.6 points per game over his last five games, which should a fair number to set as your expectation for this week’s matchup.
Tim Hightower (@ Atlanta) Price: $4900
Hightower’s name rings bells in fantasy circles, as for those who don’t know, he was a player to watch going back five years or so. When he touched down in New Orleans in the preseason, I was pretty shocked to hear he had secured a roster spot after being out of the NFL for almost a handful of years. Since Mark Ingram went down with a season ending injury though, Hightower has stepped up and given the Saints a spark. Those who played him last week were rewarded with a monster day, with Hightower racking up 122 yards rushing and two touchdowns, as well as three catches for 47 yards. Hightower does not have the natural ability of David Johnson, and he doesn’t have the veteran savvy of DeAngelo Williams, but he is a smart, instinctive running back who understands how to hit the hole his blockers set for him. With opposing defenses forced to account for Drew Brees, Hightower has made the most of his opportunity, averaging 18.6 yards per game in his three starts. The Saints travel to Atlanta this week to take on a Falcons team that kind of salvaged their disappointing season by beating the previously unbeaten Panthers. Given the type of season it’s been for Atlanta, I would not be surprised to see a huge letdown from their defense coming off the victory over Carolina. Both teams have said they will be playing their starters, so Hightower is a guy I will be heavily targeting. His salary is more than fair at $4900, and given his versatility, and the fact that he is seeing red zone touches, he is my #2 PP$ option this week after David Johnson. With so much uncertainty surrounding running backs, Hightower makes for a great GPP play.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
Odell Beckham Jr (@ Philadelphia) Price: $6450
In case you missed it, Josh Norman (Carolina) completely took Beckham Jr. off his game in their week 15 showdown, which not only resulted in the Giants losing the game, but Beckham losing a game check. After sitting out last week’s game against Minnesota, Beckham Jr. returns to the field on Sunday, in what should be a huge revenge game against Philadelphia. He will have something to prove for the first time since his ascent to the top of the receiver ranks during his rookie season. Eli Manning is the type of quarterback who will want to Beckham to redeem himself, which means Beckham is line for a high volume of targets. Combine that with a matchup against a Philly secondary who has not been able to stop anyone, and you have the #1 receiver for week 17. Beckham’s price tag is a hefty one, but he has proven time and time again that his ceiling is as high as any other receiver in the league. I am leaning towards a preferred stack of Manning/Beckham Jr, and then building my rosters from there. In the introduction to this column, I stated that you should reduce your cash game exposure this week, but if you find yourself playing cash games, Beckham Jr. is the receiver we have projected for the highest number of points. The Giants have been equally generous on defense, which is being reflected in the over/under of this game (52 points, highest in week 17). Get Beckham Jr. in your GPP lineups, then sit back and enjoy the show.
Wide Receiver (GPP/Cash)
Sammie Watkins (vs New York Jets) Price: $5150
I have been gushing over Watkins the last several weeks. He struggled to get going over the beginning half of the season, but once he did, he more than made up for it. Over his last five games, Watkins has caught 24 passes for 543 yards and six touchdowns, with touchdowns in every game but one, and two touchdowns in a pair of those games. Taylor throws a high arching deep ball, which matches up with Watkins blazing speed very well. Buffalo has also ripped off a bunch of big rushes this season, forcing defenses up in the box which has left their cornerbacks vulnerable to the deep ball. Watkins doesn’t have the best matchup against Darrelle Revis, but he has done very well when faced against top flight competition at corner back. While Revis is still one of the best cornerbacks in the league, he has let up some big games this year, including Odell Beckham Jr (six catches for 149 yard and a touchdown) and Jarvis Landry (13 catches, 165 yards and a touchdown). The difference between those two receivers and Watkins, is that Watkins doesn’t line up in the slot nearly as much as they do. Rex Ryan has already gone on record stating that this game is the Bills “Super Bowl”, so I’d expect him to throw any and every play in the playbook at the Jets this week. There are options around his price point that deserve consideration (Jeremy Maclin, Mike Evans and Demaryious Thomas) but given his current form and the fact that Buffalo will undoubtedly play their starters, Watkins is the guy I want in my GPP lineups.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Zach Ertz (@ New York Giants) Price: $4550
If you weren’t specifically looking to roster Ertz, you probably wouldn’t even know he’s there. This is puzzling, as Ertz has had a pretty good season considering all of the issues that have arisen out of Philly this season. Over his last three games, Ertz has totaled 27 catches for 298 yards and a touchdown, including a 13 catch effort against the Redskins last Saturday. Ertz has set career highs in catches (66) and yards (703), and he’s done it while dealing with disharmony throughout the organization, and with a lack of a rushing attack to take pressure off the tight ends and receivers. All of this culminates with a week 17 matchup against the Giants, a game that has the highest projected total score (52 points), according to Vegas. The Giants have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, and if I were a betting man, I’d say that total climbs to ten before the season ends. Given the lack of top tier talent in the tight end pool, and the fact that several dependable options won’t be playing the full game (Jordan Reed, Rob Gronkowski if the game gets out of hand), Ertz finds himself in a great spot this week. He is offering salary relief with a high implied total, with a high ceiling to boot. Greg Olsen, Zach Miller and Delanie Walker are all solid options as well, but for GPP’s, Ertz’s salary and upside is appealing. He is my #1 PP$ option at tight end this week.