Quarterback (Cash/GPP)
Carson Palmer (@ Philadelphia) Price: $7150
The bad news for Palmer is that his price has finally caught up to his production, but the good news for owners is that he is still returning great value at $7150. It is incredible to think that Palmer has been so good despite having played so few games with his entire receiver core. John Brown and Michael Floyd have had injuries occur at various points throughout the season, but since getting them both back in the lineup, Palmer—and the Arizona offense as a whole—has been borderline unstoppable. Over his last six games, Palmer is averaging 25.4 points per game while throwing for 300 yards AND multiple touchdowns in all but one of those games. He makes for a great cash game option virtually every week due to his elite consistency. Palmer has failed to pass for 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in only one game this entire season, a very impressive feat for a quarterback who was seeing different faces at receiver for half the season. This week he gets an extremely generous Eagles secondary who has had difficulty stopping opposing passers for much of the season. Over the last four weeks, Philadelphia is letting up 31.25 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, including five touchdown efforts by Mathew Stafford and Jameis Winston in back to back weeks. With the Arizona receiving core healthy and stud rookie running back David Johnson keeping linebackers and safeties from dropping back in coverage, Palmer should feast on the Eagles defense. I am expecting another 300 yard effort along with three passing touchdowns. Get him in your cash game and GPP lineups, he makes for a great Sunday Night Hammer.
Quarterback (GPP)
Matthew Stafford (@ New Orleans) Price: $6550
As I was writing this column I realized this is the first time I have recommended Stafford as a GPP play (or cash for that matter), a rather stunning development given my penchant for playing him in my fantasy lineups over the last several seasons. The Lions were a mess for the first half of the season, with part of the blame being attributed to their play calling and trying to force the ball to rookie Ameer Abdullah. Their run game is still sub-par, but it looks as though the Lions coaching staff now have a better understanding of when to use running backs Abdullah, Theo Riddick and Joique Bell. Stafford has started to come on as the season progresses, throwing for multipole touchdowns in three consecutive games, something he had not done this year up until the current streak. I briefly touched on Stafford above, citing his five touchdown game against Philly, which reminded fans and pundits alike, of how dangerous a combination Stafford and Calvin Johnson can be when given the chance. The chance does not get better than this week, with the Lions facing off against New Orleans on Monday Night Football. I have discussed how bad the Saints secondary is ad-nauseum in this column, but for those of you who are new readers, allow me to briefly summarize. The Saints are 30th in the NFL in net passing yards allowed (278.8), and have given up 36 touchdowns (worst in the NFL) while only generating six interceptions (next to last in the NFL). That would mean opposing quarterbacks are averaging 278 yards passing and 2.7 touchdowns, or roughly 25 fantasy points per game. If that wasn’t enough to convince you, consider this; the Saints allowed 1,045 yards and 14 touchdowns over a three week span to Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota and Kirk Cousins. With Golden Tate starting to take some heat off of Calvin Johnson, the Lions passing offense is trending up. This is a great week to play Stafford, as Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and Cam Newton should be heavily owned, so Stafford represents a contrarian Monday Night Hammer. Get him in your GPP lineups, you can play him with confidence this week.
Russell Wilson (vs Cleveland) Price: $7000
As I was watching Russell Wilson completely destroy the Ravens defense last week (292 yards passing, five touchdowns, six yards rushing), the thought occurred to me that perhaps he is not only doing something special this season, but perhaps his performances over the last four weeks were special within historical context. It turns out I was correct. Wilson is the first quarterback to have a passer rating of 138.5+ in four consecutive games. He’s thrown four touchdowns in four consecutive games, only Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Dan Marino. He’s one of only four quarterbacks to have four consecutive games of three or more touchdowns with no interceptions, Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the other three. And he stands alone as the only quarterback to have three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 70% completion rate in four consecutive games (ESPN’s Bill Barnwell researched and noted these accomplishments earlier this week). Wilson is averaging 34.1 points per game over that span, and it looks as though he will continue to go nuclear with the Browns 22nd ranked pass defense coming to town on Sunday. Cleveland has let up 26 passing touchdowns to only eight interceptions on the year, good for 24th in the NFL. Make no mistake about it, Wilson will be super high owned this week, but when you consider the run he is on (not to mention his ability to run), he is a no brainer, plug and play in GPP lineups. You can diversify your lineups easily enough at other positions, why overthink it when the Seahawks just lost Thomas Rawls for the season and had to sign a player off the street whom they traded because they were so fed up with attitude and lack of commitment (Christine Michael). He makes for a great cash game play and with a slightly lower salary than Palmer, he is most likely the preferable option…although I believe the difference in points will be negligible.
Running Back (Cash)
Adrian Peterson (vs Chicago) Price: $6200
With respect to cash games, I typically do not like to pay up for running backs that are not natural pass catchers within their offense. I look at pass catching as a way to mitigate risk and bring up scoring when running backs fail to reach the end zone or hit 100+ yards. The running backs who are heavily involved in the passing game (think Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles or Devonta Freeman) are much less likely to bomb, which is what you are looking for in cash games, especially when you have to pay a premium for their services. If there ever was an exception, it is Peterson. He continues to break big plays which in many ways is his equalizer, although he has more than one blemish on his game log this year (weeks 1, 6 and 13, he combined for roughly 15 points). If you play Peterson frequently, this is to be expected, but you take the good with the bad because his big games more than make up for it. This was more true earlier in his career, as other running backs have made a convincing PP$ argument against rostering Peterson this season. With that said, Peterson is a guy I want in my cash game lineups this week. He’s facing off against a Bears defense that has been respectable against the run, but has struggled to stop Peterson throughout his career. The last time Peterson did not rush for 100+ yards, the year was 2011 and Game of Thrones was premiering on HBO, Whitey Bulger was apprehended by the FBI after 16 years on the lam, and Cam Newton was the #1 pick in the NFL draft. Peterson hasn’t just been good against the Bears, he has terrorized them. In his first game against the Bears as a rookie, Peterson rushed for 224 yards and scored on runs of 67, 73 and 35 yards, and then he returned the final kick-off 53 yards to set up a last second field goal that gave Minnesota the victory and crushed the hearts of Bears fans worldwide. During the 2012 season, Peterson gained 100 yards…IN THE FIRST QUARTER against Chicago. The following year, he added a second 200 yard rushing game versus the Bears to his resume, finishing with 211 yards and the Vikings won in overtime. To put it mildly, Peterson has the Bears number, and that is unlikely to reverse itself in a very important divisional game with playoff implications. Don’t be the guy watching Peterson break off long run after long run wishing he was on your roster. Play him with confidence in your cash game and GPP lineups.
David Johnson (@ Philadelphia) Price: $4900
Johnson is among my favorite GPP plays this week, and will probably remain so for the rest of the season. He is a super talented runner, possesses good vision and moves with a rare blend of speed and power. He is 6’1, 224 pounds and is also a natural pass catcher, evidenced by his four receiving touchdowns on only 26 catches this season. In his first two starts, Johnson has amassed 191 rushing yards on 41 carries (4.6 YPC), while adding seven catches for 52 yards and a receiving touchdown. That is 16 points per game on average, not eye popping numbers, but pretty good considering his price and the fact that it was the first two starts of his NFL career. It is even more impressive because Johnson has yet to really break a big run or catch in those games, which is his hallmark and something he did several times earlier in the season. I am planting my flag on Johnson breaking a long TD run this week though, as he is facing an Eagles defense that is 23rd in the NFL in “big plays against” (A term that describes a play of 25+ yards, credit to SportingCharts.com), allowing 41 rushes of 25+ yards this season. Johnson is the clear #1 running back on an explosive offense, and he is playing on third down and in the red zone. When you factor in his price and the matchup, it is hard to argue against Johnson being one of, if not the best PP$ option at running back this week. He makes for a promising cash game and GPP play this week, and should have no problem returning a 3x multiple on his salary, at minimum.
Denard Robinson (vs Atlanta) Price: $4200
“Shoelace”, the nickname Robinson has become known by, is an intriguing GPP play that I find myself rostering quite a bit this week. While other running back understudies are in play (Fozzy Whittaker, The corpse of Christine Michael, Tim Hightower), Robinson is the guy I am favoring due to the current state of the Jacksonville Offense, or how I refer to them, “The Greatest Show on Surf”. I reserved that nickname for San Diego, but they have since become a dumpster fire of injuries while Jacksonville has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. After starter TJ Yeldon was injured last week, Robinson stepped in and delivered 75 yards rushing and a touchdown on 14 carries, while chipping in a catch for 15 yards. If you know anything about Robinson, he was a collegiate quarterback who broke numerous records, including the most rushing yards by a quarterback (4,495 yards). As a former quarterback, he understands what defenses are trying to do and adds a big play dimension to the running game that Yeldon lacks. He may not be built for 250+ carries over a season, but for a four game stretch, he is more than capable of handling the load for the Jaguars. Robinson faces off against an Atlanta defensive front that has become vulnerable against the run in the second half of the season. Over the last four weeks, Atlanta is allowing a massive 28.1 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (3rd worst in the NFL), including five rushing touchdowns. Blake Bortles and the Allen’s are taking the top off defenses with regularity, which should open up even more running lanes for Robinson this week. His price is attractive ($4200) as his is offensive situation and pure talent as a rusher. Given the other shiny new toys in the running back pool, Robinson should be relatively low owned in GPP’s, making him a player I will have a lot of exposure to.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
Brandon Marshall (@ Dallas) Price: $5800
In case you missed it, Brandon Marshall stated in interviews back in late September, that he was miffed by not being recognized as one of the best wide receivers of our current era (props to FootballGuy George Fotiadis for the interview tidbit). He went on to promise that he would show his critics just how good he really was. Mission accomplished, Brandon. Over the last three weeks, Marshall has recorded 27 catches for 387 yards and four touchdowns, including a dominating week 12 effort (12 catches, 131 yards and a touchdown) that led to the Jets claiming the New York heavy weight belt in a win over the Giants. The truth is Marshall has been dominant his entire career, recording 100 catches in five different seasons (with this year potentially being his sixth) while going over 1000 yards in all but two seasons of his ten year career. He doesn’t have an elite quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Fitzpatrick is smart enough to feed the ball to Marshall which has gone a long way in the Jets success this season. This week the Jets travel to Dallas in a rare Saturday night game. Over the last four weeks, the Dallas secondary has played well, allowing the eight least points to opposing wide receivers, but much of that is skewed by how bad they have been against the run. Additionally, given the pitiful state of the Dallas offense, opposing teams have not had to pass much. All in all, Marshall should receive a healthy target volume, which should be enough to establish a baseline of six catches for 80 yards and a touchdown, a nice 3x return on his salary.
Wide Receiver (GPP/Cash)
Julio Jones (@ Jacksonville) Price: $5850
He’s been gone for a minute, but he’s back again. Over the last month, Julio Jones—and in turn his owners—has had to bear the cross during the demise of the Falcons offense. He has not scored a touchdown in his last five games, which is a function of Matt Ryan being content with targeting undersized slot receivers and beefy fullbacks in the red zone, something that has baffled us all. It’s not Jones’s fault though, and he will look to get back on track this week when the Falcons travel to Jacksonville in what I believe will be the shootout special of the week. Vegas has projected the total at 48.5 points, good for the second highest of the week, however I think it will eclipse that number based on both team’s passing defense being ranked in the bottom half of the league, as well as the recent ascension of the Jaguars passing offense. I don’t know what cosmic event occurred that turned Matt Ryan into “Matty Icicle”, but this is a great week for him to shake it off and get back on track by focusing a heavy target volume Jones’s way. Atlanta needs to win this game to remain in the playoff picture, and to do that, they will need to lean on their best players. Julio Jones is that player, it is as simple as that. His price has subsided to reflect Atlanta’s offensive difficulties, so he is a great buy-low (relative) candidate in GPP’s where the majority of the field will be ignoring him in favor of Odell Beckham Jr. Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. Beckham has a tough matchup against Josh Norman, and DeAndre Hopkins has TJ Yates throwing him the ball, so I give Jones the nod over those two. Brown is always dangerous in GPP’s given his high ceiling, and I would prefer him over Jones if all things were equal, but he’s priced $250 higher. With respect to PP$ rankings, I have Jones just a bit higher than Brown.
Michael Floyd (@ Philadelphia) Price: $4950
Fantasy Aces is the only site that has taken a hard stance on Floyd and priced him according to his most recent production. This seems logical, however if you were to compare prices between sites, you’d find that Floyd is a basement bargain elsewhere, whereas he is more of a mid-range bargain on Aces. Price comparisons withstanding, Floyd still makes for an excellent play this week against a weak Philadelphia secondary. If you’ve had a chance to watch Floyd play over the last month, you’ve probably seen him make the sort of plays that allowed him to be a dominant collegiate wide receiver at Notre Dame. Floyd has shown flashes of brilliance over his still somewhat short NFL career, but the knock on him has always been his health. When he’s on the field and getting targets, he can be an absolute game changer, evidenced by his two touchdown game against Seattle (seven catches, 113 yards and two touchdowns). I’m not sure many players have caught on, but if you were to look at his production over the last seven games, you’d probably think you were looking at a guy priced $5950, not $4950. Over that span, Floyd has totaled 32 catches for 548 yards and six touchdowns, including (four) 100 yard games. The Cardinals offense has a lot of mouths to feed with both John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald commanding targets (not to mention David Johnson), but there is no denying the impact that Floyd has had over the second half of the season. Carson Palmer/Michael Floyd is actually my preferred stack for the week, and I will have heavy exposure with that combination…I suggest you do the same.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Ben Watson (vs Detroit) Price: $4500
Of all the positions on Aces, tight end is priced the tightest, and that is a compliment to the salary makers who understand how much (.5) points per reception changes the overall scoring of tight ends. This is especially true in a season where Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas both regressed to the middle tier of tight ends, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates got a big longer in the tooth and pre-season darlings like Travis Kelce failed to live up to lofty expectations. Combine that with a guy like Gary Barnidge coming out of no-where and Greg Olsen/Tyler Eifert lessening the gap between Rob Gronkowski and everyone else, and you start to see how hard it is to project who will produce above the average points at the position each week. This also starts to explain how a guy like Ben Watson could be featured tight end this week. Please understand, I’m not expecting Watson to score the highest points at tight end, nor am I saying he will outscore the likes of Gronkowski, Jordan Reed or Delanie Walker. What I am saying is I expect Watson to significantly outperform his average points, and also perform as a top 5 PP$ option at tight end. The Saints host the Lions on Monday Night Football in a game that Vegas has pegged as the highest total score of the week (50.5). I’ve written a lot about the Saints defense being so bad, which should force the Saints offense to throw the ball a lot…which is like saying water is wet. The Saints are featuring Tim Hightower at running back, no not the guy from Police Academy, although it might as well be. Last week, in Hightower’s first game as a starter, Watson caught seven passes for 70 yards, acting as a de-facto running back and moving the chains on short possession routes. While Detroit’s defense was awful to start the year, they have since tightened up, ranking inside the top 10 in points allowed to Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers over the last month. The one area they have struggled though, is against opposing tight ends, allowing Richard Rodgers to catch eight passes for 146 yards and a touchdown in week 13 (actually, in Packer land they call it, THEE Touchdown) and five catches for 32 yards and a touchdown in week 10. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, which includes a whopping 10 touchdowns. Watson has proven to have a pretty high ceiling when the matchup is right, and that is exactly where he finds himself this week. He may not be your first choice, but I urge you not to discount him. I will have heavy exposure to Watson this week in GPP’s and he makes a great cash game option that allows you fit other higher priced positional players on your roster.