Ace’s Aces
Quarterback (Cash/GPP)
Russell Wilson (@ Baltimore) Price: $6700
Wilson is coming off his two best games of the season, outdueling Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers to the tune of 36.65 points, and then beating up on Minnesota last week with 36.80 points. We may be looking at a completely new Seattle team, one that is actually depending on its offense to win games which is interesting considering the injury of off-season acquisition Jimmy Graham. Over the last three games, Wilson has thrown for 879 yards and 11 touchdowns, while also chipping in 95 rushing yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are a reflection of the Seattle coaching staff putting the game in Wilson’s hands and allowing him to do what he does best, improvise. Wilson is at the top of his game, but it gets even better for him this week as Seattle travels to Baltimore to take on a Ravens pass defense ranked 19th in the league (244 passing yards allowed). The Ravens have allowed 22 passing touchdowns, but have only generated four interceptions, which is the worst TD: INT ratio in the league, not something we have grown accustomed to seeing from the Baltimore defense. Wilson makes for a great cash game play this week.
Quarterback (GPP)
Jameis Winston (vs New Orleans) Price: $6600
If you follow this column regularly, you’ll know that I was very high on defenses facing Winston early in the year. He was staring down receivers and that led to interceptions, more specifically, interceptions returned for touchdowns…big points for defenses. Then something happened, Winston flipped a switch and started taking better care of the ball while simultaneously throwing the ball more downfield to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Winston has become a GPP favorite due to his previously inexpensive price tag, although that has since caught up to his current production. Since week 7, Winston has averaged roughly 20 points per game, throwing for 10 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. His rushing totals might now wow you, but he is sneaky good in the red zone, recording four rushing touchdowns over the same time span. This week he gets a New Orleans defense that would have trouble stopping a college offense, they have been that bad this year. In their week 2 meeting, Winston recorded 20.65 points, throwing for 207 yards and a touchdown, while also adding a touchdown on the ground. Winston has proven to have a relatively high ceiling (30.30 points against Philadelphia in week 11), making him a nice GPP play in what projects to be the highest scoring game of the week (50 ½ point total).
Tyrod Taylor (@ Philadelphia) Price: $6100
Taylor makes his triumphant return to this column after two weeks of outstanding play against Kansas City (27.15 points) and Houston (31.35 points). Over those two games, Taylor has thrown for 502 yards and six touchdowns (no interceptions) while adding 74 yards rushing and a touchdown to his stat line. He and Sammy Watkins have started to really click, especially on throws down the field. Watkins is key to Taylor’s success, as he was missing the explosive plays earlier in the season that would have pushed his point totals into elite GPP territory. Taylor is still only $6100, a very attractive price tag considering his week 14 opponent (the Eagles) have given up 105 points to opposing quarterbacks over the last three weeks. Yes, you read that right, 105 points. With Watkins and LeSean McCoy playing at a high level, Taylor has the weapons in place to put up another big game against a weak Eagles secondary. I will have a nice amount of exposure to Taylor in GPP’s this week.
Running Back (Cash)
DeAngelo Williams (@ Cincinnati) Price: $5000
Williams finds himself in an interesting position this week, as his price has risen steadily throughout the season, but has since leveled off at $5000. His salary puts him squarely between upper tier running back and elite running back. Considering the prices of Matt Forte ($5600), Devonta Freeman ($5800), Thomas Rawls ($5500) and Doug Martin ($5350), Williams is actually providing salary relief as a #1 option. He is coming off of a 134 yard rushing performance against the Colts, where he also chipped in five catches for 31 yards. Williams’ involvement in a potent passing attack cements his cash game value for me. He has only 24 catches in seven starts, but when you look closer at his game log, you’ll find he’s failed to catch at least four passes or rush for 100 yards only once in those seven games. This is what you want to see out of your cash game running backs, stability. Pittsburgh travels to Cincinnati this week in what should prove to be a very tight divisional game with heavy playoff implications. There is no denying that Pittsburgh is a passing team, but they depend on Williams to balance their attack, and that should be no different this week against the Bengals. This game has the second highest projected point total (according to Vegas books) at 48.5, and could very well exceed that total. Williams will get his fair share of red zone touches and will be very active in the passing attack, making him my #1 PP$ cash game play this week.
Lamar Miller (vs NY Giants) Price: $4850
To borrow a phrase from Forrest Gump, “Lamar Miller is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get”. I think that’s how it goes at least. Miller has been a frustrating player to own this year, averaging 23.1 points per game in weeks 6-10, but averaging only 6.6 points per game otherwise. Part of it has to do with the fact that Miami has changed its coaching staff several times, which in turn changed their offensive schemes and personnel and affected their overall chemistry as an offense. There is no denying the talent that Miller possesses. He has elite speed and runs with power once he gets going, but where he really shines is in the passing game. Miller’s inconsistency has kept his salary lower than it should be and that has led to low ownership rates. The key is to catch him on the right week, and this week against the Giants is one where I think you’ll want to have Miller on your GPP squads. The Giants defense as a whole is not what it has been in recent years, and one area where they struggled is containing opposing running backs in the passing game. Last week they were torched by Bilal Powell (eight catches, 91 yards and a touchdown), and in addition they had trouble containing Chris Thompson (eight catches, 57 yards and a touchdown) and Lance Dunbar (eight catches, 70 yards) in games played earlier this season. While Miller is anything but a sure thing, this is a great week to take a chance on him in GPP’s. I will have him as my Monday Night hammer in quite a few GPP’s.
LeSean McCoy (@ Philadelphia) Price: $5450
Whether it is the move to Buffalo, or having to play second fiddle to the Patriots, McCoy has not received the type of exposure that he has had in years past. It is puzzling to me, as he has been very productive in his first year with the Bills. We speak of fantasy “narratives”, that are essentially backstories and tidbits that could affect a particular player or team’s production. This week there is no mistaking the narrative, McCoy returning to Philadelphia to take on a team that he feels did him dirty. An angry McCoy, is a good McCoy to roster for fantasy purposes and I will have heavy exposure to him this week in GPP’s. The Eagles are another team that has not been able to stop opposing running backs in passing situations, allowing James White (10 catches, 115 yards and a touchdown), Theo Riddick (five catches, 62 yards and a touchdown) Charles Sims (three catches, 26 yards and a touchdown), Lamar Miller (six catches, 50 yards and a touchdown) and even Mike Tolbert (one catch, 2 yards and a touchdown) to score on them through the air. Buffalo likes to split McCoy out wide and get him the ball on screens and rub routes where he can cause mismatches in space. Rex Ryan is no stranger to reunions, having made his return to New York recently, and he is the type of coach who plays up these type of rivalries. I can all but guarantee that Ryan is fired up for McCoy, and will give him ample opportunity to torture his old team. Get him in your GPP lineups, you don’t want to miss McCoy’s revenge game performance.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
Odell Beckham Jr (@ Miami) Price: $6450
When looking at the top of the wide receiver player pool, the difference between Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Beckham Jr, usually comes down to matchups and the health of their respective quarterbacks. I have bounced between all four of them at some point this season in terms of who I’d prefer if all things were equal, and currently, Beckham Jr. is the guy I prefer (with Antonio Brown a very close second). Beckham Jr. is coming off his fifth consecutive 100 yard game, catching eight passes for 149 yards and a touchdown last week against the Jets. Beckham Jr’s touchdown catch will be replayed as the highlight catch of last week, and was one of those plays that only he is capable of making. Not only is he at the top of his game, but he gets the benefit of playing against the Dolphins 22nd ranked pass defense (255 net passing yards allowed. Miami has really struggled against elite #1 receivers, allowing monster games to Brandon Marshall (nine catches, 131 yards, two touchdowns), Sammie Watkins (eight catches, 168 yards and a touchdown), Julian Edelman (seven catches, 81 yards, two touchdowns) and Allen Robinson (six catches, 155 yards, two touchdowns). Even Nate Washington (nine catches, 127 yards, two touchdowns) got into the multiple touchdown act against Miami, which goes to show you how weak they have been as a unit this season. No one could fault you for choosing Antonio Brown over Beckham Jr, but I’d advise you to remember the quote from the father of the bride in “The Hangover”. “You never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater”…and Beckham Jr. is on a serious heater. Get him in your GPP and cash game lineups.
Wide Receiver (GPP/Cash)
Ashlon Jeffrey (vs Washington) Price: $5250
For those who follow this column, Jeffrey being one of my favorite GPP receivers will come as no surprise. His talent level is on par with the best receivers in the game, and when he and Jay Cutler are both healthy, he tends to produce in that realm. Other top receivers have struggled when there is a lack of talent opposite them, but Jeffrey has had no problem producing with the likes of Marques Wilson and Marc Mariani playing second and third fiddle. I’ve plugged Jeffrey several times over the last few weeks, and that had a lot to do with his massive target volume and the fact that his salary had yet to catch up to his talent and production. At $5250, he is in the range of Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Maclin and Danny Amendola. Johnson and Maclin have high upside, but struggle with consistency, while Amendola will command a high volume of targets, but he has been struggling with injuries. In a home game that the Bears need to win, Jay Cutler will need to lock in on Jeffrey and get him targets both down the field and in the red zone, two areas that have been missing the last couple of weeks. The Washington secondary has allowed true #1 receivers to dominate them, with Beckham Jr (15 catches, 230 yards and two touchdowns in two games), Brandon Marshall (seven catches, 115 yards and a touchdown), Mike Evans (eight catches, 164 yard and a touchdown) and Brandin Cooks (five catches, 98 yards, two touchdowns) putting up stellar performances. Vegas has set the total at 44 points, but considering how bad these defenses have played at times, this is a game that could turn into an unlikely shootout. I liken Jeffrey’s game and skillset to Brandon Marshall and Mike Evans, so I am targeting 100+ yards and a touchdown for Jeffrey, but he certainly has the upside to exceed those totals.
Brandon Marshall (vs Tennessee) Price: $5700
If you were to look at the best wide receivers in our current era, Brandon Marshall would certainly be among the top five in my book. He has produced incredible numbers over his career, surpassing 100 catches five times, while topping 1,000 receiving yards in eight of the last nine years. The only year he didn’t top 1,000 yards was with a terrible quarterback situation in Miami and he only played 13 games that season. There was some uncertainty surrounding Marshall’s ability to play at a high level after he left Chicago last year, but he has been everything the Jets hoped for, and then some this season. Marshall has caught a touchdown in five consecutive games, and has combined for 21 catches for 262 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games. Simply put, Marshall is an elite #1 option at receiver, but he doesn’t carry the burdensome price tag of other top tier receivers like Beckham Jr. ($6450), Antonio Brown ($6300) or DeAndre Hopkins ($6100). As recently as week 12, Marshall’s salary was at $5250. Unfortunately his production has caught on with the salary makers at Fantasy Aces, but his current price is still advantageous given how frequently Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to Marshall. This week the Jets get a Titans defense that is completely falling apart. Over the last two weeks, the Titans have given up 625 yards passing and eight touchdowns to the likes of Blake Bortles and David Carr. Looking at the last four weeks, the Titans are allowing the fifth most points to wide receivers, which means big games for both Brandon Marshall and Erik Decker. This is another great week to super stack Fitzpatrick, Marshall and Decker. Get Marshall in your GPP lineups, he is going to be a difference maker this week.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Delaine Walker (@ New York Jets) Price: $4800
With Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski both injured, there is an interesting mix of tight ends that are staking their claim for the #1 spot. Of those at the top, Walker is my #1 PP$ option. Since coming to Tennessee, Walker has increased his reception total each season, catching 60 passes in 2013 and 64 passes in 2014. Walker already has 67 receptions in 2015 and should reach the 80 catch plateau rather easily. Over his last three games, Walker has snagged 22 balls for 292 yards and a touchdown, while having at least 90 yards receiving in each game. He has surpassed 90 yards on five different occasions this year, and has caught at least six passes in eight of his eleven games. Cash games are all about consistency, and for the price, Walker is as consistent as any player in his price range, whether that be a running back, wide receiver or tight end. This week he gets a stingy Jets defense that has played very well against opposing tight ends. The matchup is neutral, but Walker has the benefit of being the #1 passing option on the Titans in a game where the Jets are seven point favorite. This points to the Titans having to pass frequently, which directly benefits Walker and should increase his already high target volume. There are other options close to him (Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce and Gary Barnidge), but Walker is the most consistent and can match their upside. Play him with confidence in your cash games, but I would also recommend him for GPP’s.