Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 4, 12 team FPC scoring TE 1.5 PPR, Dual Flex

Overall Strategy

Running Back-Heavy, Swing for the Fences

Best Pick(s)

Ben Roethlisberger (11.02, QB15) Roethlisberger is a great value in the 11th round and adds a lot of upside for Phil behind Marcus Mariota. The pick of Roethlisberger is also a nice strategic move for an owner who has already rolled the dice on Martavis Bryant. We often talk about QB-WR “stacks” in daily fantasy, but the strategy also works well in best ball formats with top-heavy payouts. If Bryant has a big enough season to out-perform his draft cost of 5.02, then Roethlisberger also probably has a big fantasy season. These types of correlation plays are an ideal way to get your team out of the middle of the pack (one way or the other).

Worst Pick(s)

Willie Snead (7.02, WR30) Phil had a strong draft with some calculated risks that could pay off big, which is exactly what you want in this format. The upside with the first five picks is through the roof. Snead was a decent pick at the top of the 7th round, so this is nitpicking a bit. The negative for Snead in best ball is that he isn’t much of a big-play threat and hasn’t been very involved in the red zone (just seven career touchdowns on 206 targets). The big bump in targets many expect after the departure of Brandin Cooks may not materialize either. Ted Ginn, Jr. will pick up many of those targets and Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara will also pick up some of the slack.

Evaluation

Phil swung for the fences in the 3rd through 5th rounds with Joe Mixon, Carlos Hyde and Martavis Bryant. These three picks will be the key for this team. Mixon is a rookie with plenty of competition for touches. Hyde is in a brand new system and isn’t a lock to be the lead back. Bryant is fresh off of a year-long suspension and one mistake away from another long banishment. However, each of these three guys is very talented and in favorable situations where if things click, they could put up huge fantasy seasons. Taking these sort of calculated risks is a strong strategy in this format.

Post-Draft Questions

1. People have mixed feelings about drafting Carlos Hyde this year. You drafted him as the 17th running back off the board. Share your thoughts on why you like Hyde this year. 

Before the 49ers drafted Joe Williams and San Francisco beat writers began claiming he was a poor fit for new head coach Kyle Shanahan's outside zone scheme, you had to draft Hyde in the second round. Taking Hyde as an RB1 in the second was scary. The 49ers -- even with Shanahan calling the shots -- are a bad team on both sides of the ball. Surrounding talent and the potential for negative game scripts are much scarier than Hyde's ability to adapt to a different blocking scheme or beat out a fourth-round rookie for carries.

But I didn't have to spend a second round pick on Hyde or draft him as an RB1. He's my RB3 on this roster (behind Le'Veon Bell and Joe Mixon), and I was able to get him below his current ADP at the 4-5 turn. At that price, I like Hyde for quite a few reasons.

1. He overcame negative game scripts and a poor offensive setup (including arguably the worst offensive line in the league) last year to finish as the RB10 on a per game basis. The 49ers can't be worse than they were last year.
2. Hyde had never been asked to catch passes as a pro, but last year he set career highs in every major receiving category while catching 82% of his targets. Those soft hands could be helpful in Shanahan's scheme, as evidenced by Devonta Freeman's back-to-back 50+ reception seasons the last two years in Atlanta.
3. Maybe Hyde isn't a perfect fit for outside zone blocking but it's too early to say he won't excel in it. Hyde is extremely talented, and even Shanahan himself said scheme fit is overrated when it comes to great running backs. If Shanahan can make fantasy stars out of Steve Slaton and Ryan Torain, I trust he can do the same for Hyde -- the best player on his roster,
4. Most scouts gave Williams a 6th-7th round grade. He's not a threat to Hyde on third downs, in short yardage, or at the goal line. If he carves out a role, it will be on base downs where he might see about eight carries per game. Shanahan's offenses have ranked in the top half of the league in rushing attempts every year since 2011. There's room for Williams to poach a few carries without capping Hyde's ceiling, and it may even be a good thing for another back to take some of the load off the oft-injured Hyde.

Overall Strategy

Balanced, Talent over Situation at Running Back

Best Pick(s)

Tyler Eifert (5.03, TE6) TE6 is right where Eifert belongs. He has averaged nearly a touchdown per game over the past two seasons and should have plenty of room to operate in the middle of the field with the speed of A.J. Green and John Ross demanding extra Safety attention. Bear also gets credit for timing the tight end run well and kicking off a big run in the fifth and sixth rounds. Between this pick in the 5th and Bear’s pick in the 6th round, seven tight ends went off the board. If Bear had gone in a different direction here in the 5th, by the time his 6th rounder rolled around, he’d have been looking at 12 tight ends off the board and been locked out of having a TE1. Judging when positional runs like this occur and not getting left out is a big key to putting together a balanced team without any major weaknesses.

Worst Pick(s)

Brandon Marshall (6.10, WR29) The risk/reward doesn’t add up for drafting Marshall as a top-30 receiver. He was awful last season despite seeing 129 targets and enters his age-33 season with real question marks about whether he is still a top receiver. We have seen big-bodied receivers in Marshall’s mold (like Andre Johnson and Roddy White) go from top producers to washed up very quickly in their early 30s. There is major age-related risk here. Plus, the potential reward in the 6th round is questionable. Odell Beckham, Jr. is going to see a massive share of the targets. Talented youngsters Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram are going to be very involved as well. Marshall is highly unlikely to see the 125+ targets he’d likely need to see to justify this ADP.

Evaluation

The key for this team will likely be the performance of his second and third round picks. Bear is betting on talent winning out over situation with Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette. If the two impressive young backs can transcend what will probably be mediocre (or worse) offenses, this team can be a contender.

post-draft questions

1. Name a player that you are particularly high on this season, where others may have different feelings? Explain your reasoning. 

Pierre Garcon - I love the coast-to-coast move for Garcon. He's been a borderline WR2-3 over the past few seasons but now has a chance to really stand out in an office with which he's somewhat familiar. While Garcon might not ever be one of the top pass-catchers in football, he most certainly can be a relevant fantasy producer for a team that doesn't have many offensive options. Garcon has been projected as a sleeper, but the masses could shy away because he's on the 49ers.

2. Who's a player that you are avoiding in drafts this year. Explain your answer. 

Cameron Meredith. Meredith was a stud last season for the Bears. He ended up being the most reliable pass-catching option on the team. While the hope is that he continues to progress in his role in Dowell Loggains offense, it's hard to see him playing up to some of his draft projections. There's too much unknown at quarterback with Mike Glennon set to take over and Mitch Trubisky lurking in the background. Alshon Jeffery now is an Eagle, and the Bears didn't do much to replace him atop the depth chart, meaning Meredith, who will be coming off a thumb injury, will attract a lot of defensive attention in the secondary, and it's no certainty that he's ready to be a No. 1 or No. 2 option in an NFL offense. 

3. Which player on your roster do you fel you received the best value?

DeSean Jackson. Jackson's arrival in Tampa Bay is a huge addition for the Buccaneers' offense. With Mike Evans drawing the lion's share of the defensive attention, Jackson will see countless single-coverage opportunities. Speed is Jackson's game, and there's no reason to think he can't put up monster numbers catching passes from Jameis Winston, who now enters his third season in the league. Expect Jackson to put up career-high numbers in yards and yards per catch (and maybe even touchdowns) this season. 

Stephen Holloway - Slot 4

Overall Strategy

Solid Veterans

Best Pick(s)

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (17.04, TE31) Seferian-Jenkins could be one of the steals of this draft and is exactly the type of relatively high-upside (especially in TE-premium) player to target in the late rounds. Seferian-Jenkins has always been an impressive physical specimen with the talent to be a fantasy TE1. However, off-field demons have derailed his career to this point. He seems to have turned a corner and if he can stay clean, he could surprise in a Jets offense that is desperate for a pass catcher to emerge. Josh McCown loves to target his tight ends and helped Gary Barnidge emerge as a legitimate fantasy factor in Cleveland. Seferian-Jenkins could be next in line.

Worst Pick(s)

Russell Wilson (6.09, QB5) Wilson is fine as QB5, but Stephen could have waited a few rounds and still nabbed a similar top quarterback. It may be worth it to take an elite quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees early. However, once the top few passers are gone, it probably makes sense to wait and try to time the quarterback run to still get a top-12 quarterback as late as possible. If there had been a run on quarterbacks after this pick, it would have been fine. But the QB1 run didn’t happen until a couple rounds later. Hindsight is 20/20, but Cam Newton was still available at Stephen’s pick in the 9th round and would have been a better value than Wilson in the 6th.

Evaluation

Veterans like Doug Baldwin, Lamar Miller, Larry Fitzgerald and Kyle Rudolph aren’t the most exciting guys to pull the trigger on in the early rounds. However, they provide proven production (Rudolph scored 250 points in this scoring format in 2016) and allow for some risk taking in later rounds with higher upside youngsters. If mid-round picks DeVante Parker and Corey Coleman have breakout seasons, this team has a great chance to compete.

post-draft questions

1. Which player drafted in the 10th round or later on your roster are you most excited about? Explain your answer. 

I really like my trio of wide receivers drafted in the 10th (Corey Coleman), in the 12th (Marque's Lee) and into the 13th (Will Fuller) to provide some boom weeks in the best ball format and add strength to my overall wide receiver corps. That strength was rather poor as I had only drafted two by the end of round six and needed some punch. I am not certain that any of these three guys will produce enough to be considered starters in traditional leagues, but I like their opportunities in best ball to post several solid scoring weeks.

2. What was your strategy heading into this draft?

I have frequently drafted toward the end of the round in all of the mocks that I have drafted in to date and focused on wide receivers early and often waiting till late to piece together running backs. With the 4th selection in this draft I was hopeful to be able to build strength at runners my back early and then take best available at other positions. This actually occurred as I drafted Ezekiel Elliott at 4th overall and paired him with Lamar Miller in the third round. I like my team overall, except I continued to miss mid-round tight ends I liked and wound up waiting too late to back up Kyle Rudolph. I drafted two in the last four rounds and went solo at kicker to accommodate the weak duo backing up Rudolph.

3. How much importance to do place on bye weeks during the drafting process?

I am not so concerned with minimizing overlap in bye weeks early as I prefer to take the players that I value the most early. The point where I look more closely at this will depend on how badly the overlap is early. In this draft my first two players both had week 6 byes, but I was still able to draft my preferred player without bye consideration through round six when I selected my first quarterback Russell Wilson. That pick left me with all three of my top players at QB, RB and WR on bye week 6. I avoided week 6 byes after that.

James Brimacombe - Slot 5

Overall Strategy

Two Starting TEs, Light on Receivers

Best Pick(s)

Eric Ebron (6.08, TE12) Ebron has real upside in TE-Premium leagues. He caught 61 passes in 2016 despite missing 3 games (75 reception pace). He just turned 24-years old and could be primed for a breakout season. The departure of Anquan Boldin (who was amongst the league leaders in red zone targets) could really open the door for Ebron to get more premium targets.

Worst Pick(s)

Roberto Aguayo (19.05, PK11) This was one of my favorite drafts overall and filled with solid picks, so I’ll have to nitpick a bit. When you are doing a best ball draft, targeting a pair of kickers who are near locks to make their teams is a very important. Aguayo was one of the worst kickers in the league last season and will face stiff competition from Nick Folk in training camp. If Aguayo gets cut, James will lose points over the course of the season relying on just one kicker.

Evaluation

James landed a solid trio of wide receivers in Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery and Pierre Garcon early and didn’t take his fourth receiver until the 11th round. By going light on receivers in the first 10 rounds, James was able to build strong depth at running back and snag a tight end duo (Ebron and Travis Kelce) that could put up big numbers and make this squad a strong contender. He did a great job of snagging value when players fell.

post-draft questions

1. You drafted two tight ends in the first six rounds of the draft. Explain why you chose this strategy?

You never know what type of strategy you are going to take with each best-ball draft you play in. With this league TE had a premium with the 1.5 points per reception so that was in the back of my mind. Going with Travis Kelce at 2.08 might seem early in most leagues but I didn't feel there was a RB at that point that deserved the selection and grabbing Julio Jones in Round 1 the only logical pick for me was Kelce. Kansas City just let Jeremy Maclin go in the offseason and that in itself opened up even more targets in the passing game and could vault Kelce into that Gronkowski territory at the position. Going with Eric Ebron at 6.08 was probably a reach but there was very little top end talent left at the position and not only could I block another owner at the position I could also potentially own two top-5 fantasy players at the position.

2. You selected Paul Perkins with pick 7.05 in the draft. Explain why you are high on him this season.

When ever I fail to land one of the top three running backs because of draft position I automatically look to get a back like Paul Perkins in the Rounds 7-10 range. As a rookie Perkins averaged 4.1 yards per carry for 456 yards and added 15 catches for 162 yards through the air. With Rashad Jennings out of the picture, Perkins has a direct path to a heavier workload and likely will only have to out perform Shane Vereen early in the season to get even more touches. With the Giants bringing in Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram everyone is focusing in the passing game when in fact it should open things up in the running game for Perkins. I feel Perkins is being overlooked and being under drafted right now and I have been looking to draft him in every league that I am in, in rounds 7 or 8. 

3. What one piece of advice would you give to someone who is drafting in a best ball league?

I have participated in 50+ best-ball drafts in the last couple of months and that alone is the best advice I could give to others playing in this format. You have to do about 5-10 of these drafts and then you really get a good feel for the players that you like most and can start to learn what type of players will fall to you in the later rounds. Some examples from this particular draft were Jonathan Stewart (10.08), Kenny Stills (12.08), Mohamed Sanu (15.05), and J.J. Nelson (18.08). We all know who the guys are at the top of the draft but after you get into Rounds 10+ you have to have some targets picked out that can help win you your league. 
The great thing about Best-Ball is that there is no wrong way to play. You can develop new strategies depending on the draft position you are assigned at the start of the draft and make the best of it. If you happen to get one of the top two picks you basically lock in David Johnson or LeVeon Bell and can focus on the other skill positions over the next few rounds. If you fail to land one of those top two picks you can land a top WR and go from there.

Jeff Haseley - Slot 6

Overall Strategy

Upside Down Drafting, Zero RB

Best Pick(s)

Kareem Hunt (10.07, RB41) Loading up at receiver, quarterback and tight end in the early rounds can be a winning strategy if you are able to hit on a couple of running backs with decent upside in the middle rounds. Jeff gave himself that opportunity by grabbing a trio of backs (Christian McCaffrey, Mark Ingram and Hunt) in somewhat murky situations who each have the potential to emerge as top fantasy options. Hunt will have to compete with veteran Spencer Ware for touches, but Hunt has more burst and could emerge as the lead back by mid-season. Getting this type of upside in the 10th round makes the early round selections at other positions look good. This team is a good example of a well-executed “upside down drafting” strategy.

Worst Pick(s)

Antonio Gates (13.06, TE23) Jeff may have had the best start to the draft through the first 10 rounds, but made a couple questionable picks in the late rounds that left him with subpar options at QB2 and TE2. While that’s not a major issue after grabbing top starting options early in the draft, it still would have been nice to have done better than Brian Hoyer and Antonio Gates as the top backups. All indications out of San Diego are that the torch has been passed from the 37-year old Gates to Hunter Henry and Gates will be relegated to a small part-time role off the bench. Jeff’s 16th round selection, Ben Watson, should outproduce Gates this season.

Evaluation

Jeff was one of two drafters who didn’t select a running back in the first four rounds. By doing so, he was able to snag an elite quarterback (Drew Brees), top tight end (Greg Olsen) and two elite receivers (Odell Beckham and T.Y. Hilton). This strategy can pay off in a big way if the mid-round running backs hit. Jeff was able to land some high upside guys in McCaffrey, Ingram and Hunt. If two of the three backs are able to emerge from committees to put up big numbers, Jeff will be a favorite in this league.

post-draft questions

1. Would you rather have trusted veterans or rookies with high upside in a best ball format?  Explain your answer. 

If I had to decide on one or the other, I would choose trusted veterans. MFL10 leagues require consistency to be successful and that's exactly what a trusted veteran would give you. For example, I would rather have Jonathan Stewart over an upstart running back like Alvin Kamara. There's bound to be several rookies who breakout but I would rather hitch my wagon to a player who has a highr probability of consistency week to week.

2. Which player on your roster drafted in the 10th round or later do you feel you received the most value?

For me that player is Rishard Matthews at 14.07 with honorable mention to Ben Watson at 16.07.  Yes, the Titans are a run first team and yes they aded some firepower in their wide receiver corps in Corey Davis and Eric Decker. However, Matthews and Marcus Mariota developed good chemistry last year, which won't just go away. Matthews tied Delanie Walker for the most receptions (65) on the team last year and his 9 touchdowns were the most on the team. I am not expecting to see similar numbers this season, but it's clear that he was a favorite target for Mariota and for me to get him in the 14th round is a low risk, decent reward pick. 

3. What is a critical error that people should try to avoid when drafting in a best ball league?

Pay attention to the bye weeks, especially players that are projected to score the most points on your roster. Definitely avoid selecting quarterbacks and defenses with the same bye, because that greatly reduces your point total for that week. One or two low-scoring weeks can kill your chances of being the top scoring team at the end of the year. 

Ari Ingel - Slot 7

Overall Strategy

Balanced, Late-Round QB

Best Pick(s)

Keenan Allen (3.07, WR13) Injuries in each of the past two seasons will scare many drafters away from Allen, which provides an opportunity to get a top potential top-15 producer outside of the top-30 picks. Especially in best ball (where a “first or last but not the middle” is ideal), Allen is a strong target. All the news out of San Diego is extremely positive when it comes to Allen’s recovery from a torn ACL that ended his 2016 season in Week 1. He should be the clear top target in San Diego and could go right back to putting up 20+ points per game.

Worst Pick(s)

Donte Moncrief (8.06, WR35) Moncfief is a solid young talent and certainly has decent upside as Andrew Luck’s WR2, but there were better options on the board at this point in the draft. Moncrief hasn’t topped 65 receiving yards in a game wince Week 12 of the 2015 season. Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon (who went off the board with the next two picks) both have higher weekly floors and may have higher upside as well.

Evaluation

Ari put together one of the strongest drafts top to bottom. He took advantage of positional runs to find value with nearly every pick. Ari showed the benefit of waiting at quarterback in best ball leagues. He was the last to draft a quarterback, but still was able to put together a strong duo of Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford after loading up at other positions. He did gamble on some injury prone players early (Rob Gronkowski, Keenan Allen and Ameer Abdullah) and that could be a potential pitfall of this roster. But if this team stays healthy, it should have what it takes to be one of the top contenders.

post-draft questions

1. What specific preparation would you recommend to someone who is drafting in an FFPC best ball league?

Devin Knotts - Slot 8

Overall Strategy

Zero RB

Best Pick(s)

Ted Ginn, Jr. (12.05, WR53) Devin loaded up at tight end and receiver. With four strong options already rostered at receiver, Ginn was a perfect late-round pick for the best ball format. Ginn has proven his big-play ability and fantasy upside in recent years. He caught four touchdowns in a five-game stretch late last season and racked up 10 touchdowns in 2015. He steps into a starting role in the Saints high-octane offense and his speed should play well on the fast track in the Superdome.

Worst Pick(s)

Coby Fleener (10.05, TE17) Devin alr