Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 12, 12 team Superflex PPR

On August 16th, the Footballguys staff completed a 12-team Superflex PPR mock draft. Below are the league's scoring and bylaws. 

League Parameters

• 12 teams
• 20 roster spots
• Starting Lineup
• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 3 flex (two can be running back, wide receiver or tight end. One can be a quarterback)
• 1 team defense

League Scoring

• Offensive Players
• 4 points - passing touchdown
• 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
• 0.05 points - passing yard
• 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
• Team Defense
• 6 points - defensive or return touchdown
• 2 points - turnover forced
• 2 points - safety
• 1 point - sack
• 10 points - 0 points allowed
• 7 points - 1-6 points allowed
• 3 points - 7-14 points allowed
• 0 points - 15-99 points allowed

The Draft Order

The draft order was randomly generated. After the first round, the draft continues in a regular serpentine manner. Click here for the Full Draft, pick by pick or Grid Format

1. Chad Parsons
2. Andy Hicks
3. Phil Alexander
4. Keith Roberts
5. Jeff Tefertiller
6. Danny Tuccitto
7. Daniel Simpkins
8. Dan Hindery
9. Ari Ingel
10. Chris Feery
11. Jason Wood
12. Jeff Haseley

Starting with Chad Parsons from the 1.01 spot, we will go over each person's selections in the mock draft.

Chad Parsons - SLOT 1

Overall Strategy: Load up with stud RB

Best Pick(s): Alshon Jeffery, 6.12 (WR24) – Chad held off at the WR position and was rewarded when Alshon Jeffery dropped to him at the end of the 6th round. Jeffery is being drafted 1-2 rounds earlier in most drafts as his current ADP is WR16. If Jeffery can get on the same page with Carson Wentz, Chad has an impact 1-2 punch to go along with his strong RB core.

Worst Pick(s): Davante Adams, 5.1 (WR16) – By loading up on RB early, Chad had to make some sacrifices at his WR1 position. Davante Adams broke out last season with 75 receptions for 997 yards and 12 touchdowns. It will be very difficult for him to replicate those numbers with a healthy Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

Evaluation: Chad’s team should have a safe floor most weeks with the ability to start 3 top RBs (David Johnson, Todd Gurley, DeMarco Murray). If those 3 RBs stay healthy and Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery have a strong season, he will make a deep run in this league.

post-draft questions

1. In a Superflex draft, what is your strategy for drafting quarterbacks and how did that strategy work for you in this draft?
At a minimum, I want a strong QB1. Typically, I am one of the first owners with two quarterbacks, but with the depth in 2017, I can see waiting until the QB13-18 range to get my second option. However, draft position played a factor in my execution of the typical approach in this draft. At 1.01, I was not passing on David Johnson for my choice of quarterback. Quarterbacks did not fly off the board by my 2/3 turn selections (just five were selected), so I doubled up on running backs again. However, that decision cost me as by the 4/5 turn I was down to Carson Wentz (QB18). If Eli Manning had made it, I would have been far more comfortable with the outcome of waiting, but he was selected by Keith Roberts a few picks earlier. Looking back the luxury selection was DeMarco Murray at 3.01 (RB9) instead of a quarterback. I would like my roster more with Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota or Derek Carr in that spot and then getting Isaiah Crowell at the 4/5 turn. I was fortunate to land Jay Cutler out at 7.01 (QB22) in my unfamiliar late-round approach and added Trevor Siemian and Matt Moore late. With a late draft position, I would have gone quarterback at least once in the first three rounds.

2. What players are rising and falling in drafts as we get closer to Week 1. Share your thoughts on these players. 
Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey seem to be two earlier-rather-than-not options in the opening 3-4 rounds of drafts. I have not ended up with either in redrafts (yes, occasionally in rookie drafts for dynasty) as I am not a strong bettor on rookies in redraft in general and this year prefer Joe Mixon over Cook and McCaffrey. For Cook, I question the interior ability and his size profile. Plus, I think Latavius Murray (health pending) is more of a nuisance than most. For McCaffrey, Jonathan Stewart will have a significant role plus Carolina needs a factory reset from the 2016 version. For McCaffrey to justify or show a profit from his ADP, he needs to be rookie Reggie Bush, which is a tall order.

3. What pick on your roster do you believe received the best value?  What about another roster? 
I will highlight two of my selections. The first is Alshon Jeffery at WR24 (6.12 in this superflex format). Jeffery is a prototypical No.1 receiver and has the best quarterback in some time for 2017 in Carson Wentz. With Jordan Matthews gone everything points to a strong target volume and double-digit touchdown potential for Jeffery. In the low-WR2 zone, Jeffery is a strong value for owners waiting on wide receiver. I bet Jeffery finishes in the top-18 of PPR PPG or higher this season. The other is getting Chris Johnson in the final round of the draft. Having David Johnson is a bonus, but Johnson is a clear handcuff available late. Considering other No.2 backs are far pricier with little more weekly appeal outside of injury, Johnson is one of my favorites when roster size allows this season.

While I did not pull the trigger for Ezekiel Elliott at the 2/3 turn (opting for Todd Gurley and DeMarco Murray), I liked Phil Alexander's selection of Elliott at 3.03. The appeal has yet to play out, plus having Elliott for the stretch run is a trump card if an owner can stay above water. Alexander was aggressive with Darren McFadden at RB45, so it was an ideal strategy. One final selection to mention is Keith Roberts with Eli Manning at 4.09 (QB16). Manning was my auto-pick at 4.12 if available and Manning has been a top-10 level option consistently since Odell Beckham broke out in 2014. Roberts found outstanding value in Manning after drafting Aaron Rodgers to anchor his quarterback depth chart in Round 1.

Andy Hicks - Slot 2

Overall Strategy: Focus on skill positions early and wait on QB

Best Pick(s): Jarvis Landry, 7.2 (WR25) – I was surprised to see Jarvis Landry drop to the 7th round in a PPR draft. He has produced 94 and 111 receptions in each over the past two seasons. His role in the offense should not change this season with Jay Cutler.

Worst Pick(s): DeAndre Hopkins, 3.2 (WR 11)- DeAndre Hopkins is fine WR value at this spot but Andy needed to address the QB position at this point of the draft. After he selected Hopkins, Andy had 20 picks until his next pick and 11 QBs came off the board. In a superflex draft, it can be very risky if you wait and miss out on a QB run.

Evaluation: Waiting on QB is likely to hurt the potential of this team. Andy’s premium skill positions (LeVeon Bell, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins) can carry this team but they will need help from the QB position. Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles are both on the hot seat and may find themselves on the bench at some point during the season.

post-draft questions

1. In a Superflex draft, what is your strategy for drafting quarterbacks and how did that strategy work for you in this draft?
A lot of the strategy depends on your draft slot. If you are at the front or back of a draft you have to almost guess if certain players will make it back in a Superflex draft. You can either reach for Quarterbacks or hope they make it back to your pick. With pick number 2, there was no way I was passing up on David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell. That immediately ruled out 5 quarterbacks. By the time of my 2nd and 3rd pick I had to decide whether to take Andrew Luck, Derek Carr, Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Ryan. The other choice was to load up on players at other positions. With a running back in round 1, I looked at the WR board and I still had 2 elite options in Dez Bryant and DeAndre Hopkins available. I could have taken 1 WR and 1 QB, but was hoping that any one of my top 15 quarterbacks would make it back.  When Phil took Andy Dalton the pick before mine, that plan failed. I ended up being stuck with Tyrod Taylor as my number 1 QB. For the 6th and 7th round I had to grab the best available, and Blake Bortles was still around. As players like Jared Goff went in the 9th, I had to get a pair of QBs that were on teams that had a camp battle or likely to switch starters. Options in the 10th/11th round split were in Chicago, Houston, the Jets and Denver. Deshaun Watson went early in the 10th so had 3 situations to choose from. The Bears had more upside at the position so I filled my roster with Glennon and Trubisky. 

In a superflex draft that heavily favors the QB position, being at the back of round 1 is an advantage, as is the middle part of the draft where you are less likely to get caught in a  run.  At the front end, you do get an elite other position option, but have to decide on reaching for a QB at some stage. You either need to get the value at other positions or pick a player you don't feel worthy at the position you would have to draft him.

2. What players are rising and falling in drafts as we get closer to Week 1. Share your thoughts on these players. 
The player that stands out to me is Terrelle Pryor. He went as the 18th wide receiver off the board and his ADP seems to be rising. I personally don't understand this. His downside is frightening and his upside limited when he goes this high. 
Jarvis Landry's stock has fallen a lot recently, for 2 reasons. An off field incident and the injury to Ryan Tannehill. He is a PPR monster though and I can see neither of these issues causing a loss in production. In fact with an extra touchdown or 2 he pushes into WR1 territory. 

3. What pick on your roster do you believe received the best value?  What about another roster? 
Running Back seems to be offering a lot of value this year, depending on the player(s) you like. I like all of my backs, but thought Eddie Lacy was terrific value as the 95th player off the board. There is talk that Rawls is the lead dog, but Lacy has a much better pedigree and was signed to be used heavily. The plan was to also take Rawls between the 12th and 14th round, but his value is rising to the 11th round here. 
On another roster I thought Daniel Simpkins did well to get Kelvin Benjamin in the middle of the 7th round. His off season weight issues were put to rest by the first preseason game and he should easily outperform the slot he was drafted in.

phil alexander - slot 3

Overall Strategy: High Risk-High Reward, Championship or Bust!

Best Pick(s): Tyler Eifert, 8.10 (TE7)- Phil may have won the draft with this pick. In a superflex league where you can start multiple TE, Tyler Eifert has immense upside. By pairing Eifert with Rob Gronkowski, Phil has created a large gap between the TE production on his team as compared to the rest of the league.

Worst Pick(s): Josh Gordon, 17.3 (WR71) – While many will argue that Josh Gordon is a reasonable flier late in a 20-team draft, I would rather utilize the draft spot on someone that is more likely to produce for your team. There has been no word on Gordon’s reinstatement and even if it is granted there is a chance that he will still not see the field this season. All signs suggest that the Browns have moved on.

Evaluation: Love, Love, Love Phil’s draft! Handcuffing Darren McFadden in the 12th round was key to keeping his RB position afloat until Ezekiel Elliott returns from suspension. Phil is swinging for the fences with his Bengals! He will need Andy Dalton to stay healthy because the only QB depth he has is Alex Smith. This team has a high ceiling with the potential for a championship.

post-draft questions

1. In a Superflex draft, what is your strategy for drafting quarterbacks and how did that strategy work for you in this draft?
Quarterback is more of a priority for me in Superflex than a standard league, but the position is still more easily replaceable than running back and wide receiver. That's why I passed on Aaron Rodgers at 1.03 and took Antonio Brown - a perennial candidate to finish as the overall WR1. Admittedly, I came up short of what I was hoping for at quarterback in this draft. I incorrectly assumed I would be able to land one of Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, or Matthew Stafford as my QB1 with pick 4.10. Andy Dalton isn't a terrible consolation given the rest of my roster, but I was still a little disappointed. Alex Smith - a virtual lock to finish in the QB17-22 range - is the type of QB2 flex option I usually target in this format, so no problems there. But then I blew it at QB3 when I took Tom Savage in the 19th round, without realizing Josh McCown was still available.

2. What players are rising and falling in drafts as we get closer to Week 1. Share your thoughts on these players. 
Since I was the owner who took Ezekiel Elliott, I'll use him as the Captain Obvious answer for falling player. At the moment he's suspended for six games, but there's upside for the suspension to be reduced or delayed. If Elliott is starting in Week 1 or even by Week 5 (both realistic possibilities at this point), getting him at pick 3.03 positions me to win the league. The rest of the owners won't be thrilled to see a team with a clear edge at RB1 (Elliott), WR1 (Antonio Brown), and TE1 (Rob Gronkowski) on their upcoming schedules. Even if the suspension remains a full six games and Elliott doesn't see the field until Week 8, this roster should have enough at running back to get me by. Mark Ingam, Paul Perkins, and Darren McFadden should be start-worthy early in the season. And if Elliott's return coincides with Joe Mixon taking over as Cincinnati's lead back later in the year (an eventuality I'm counting on), this team is sprinting to the finish line.

As far as a player whose ADP is on the rise, I'll echo Daniel Simpkins' sentiments on Christian McCaffrey. His ADP is up a full round since August 1st, which prices him out of my budget. He may very well be a lightning in a bottle type player who makes scoring long touchdowns look easy, but if you're drafting him as a borderline RB1 (he was the RB13 in this draft), you're baking those long scoring plays into his projections. 200 total touches (carries plus receptions) is a reasonable projected workload for McCaffrey. But even if he does see those touches and parlays them into 1,200 total yards, he's still third on the goal line pecking order in Carolina behind Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton. There isn't a clear path to more than four or five touchdowns for McCaffrey, which makes it tough to pull the trigger on him before the RB18-20 range. I don't hate the pick for Andy Hicks, though. All it would take is an injury to Stewart (not altogether unlikely) for Hicks to pair Le'Veon Bell with an unleashed McCaffrey, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league.

3. What pick on your roster do you believe received the best value?  What about another roster? 
Dan Hindery is right on about Tyler Eifert falling to me at 8.10. Injury history aside, Eifert has upside to finish as the overall TE1. Pairing Eifert with Gronkowski gives me huge leverage on the rest of the league at the tight end position. Now I just have to cross my fingers and hope they can both stay on the field for the majority of the season. 

I was congratuled on the message board for drafting Darren McFadden at pick 12.10 to pair with Elliott.  It had to be the first time anyone got props for drafting McFadden since his first year out of Arkansas. I'm not convinced McFadden is some sort of stud while Elliott is out, but I do see him getting first crack at the starting gig to open the season, and it least it looks good on paper having him and Elliott on my roster. 

As far as value on other rosters, look no further than the wide receivers who slipped to Rounds 8 and 9 in this draft. It's bound to happen in the super flex format since quarterbacks justifiably go earlier, but there was terrific wide receiver value in these rounds regardless. Julian Edelman, Brandon Marshall, DeVante Parker, Pierre Garcon, and Tyrell Williams (OK, he was my pick) all went after the first 30 wide receivers were taken. Each has a clear path to WR2 numbers. 

Keith Roberts - Slot 4

Overall Strategy: 2 QBs within the first 4 rounds

Best Pick(s): Eli Manning, 4.9 (QB 16) – While most would look to fill in a RB or WR at this spot, Keith recognized the value of being able to start a QB at the flex position. He drafted one of the last QBs that has 4000 passing yards with 30 TD upside.

Worst Pick(s): Dalvin Cook, 5.4 (RB15) If I had to pick a player that I would change it would be Isaiah Crowell instead of Dalvin Cook in the fifth round. When comparing these two RBs, I feel more confident in the Browns offensive line heading into the season as compared to the Vikings.

Evaluation: This team is above average at every position. While this team does not scream CHAMPIONSHIP on paper, they are solid across the board and will contend on a weekly basis.

post-draft questions

jeff tefertiller - slot 5

Overall Strategy: Stud QB and QB for flex

Best Pick(s): Brandin Cooks, 3.5 (WR13) – After Jeff started his draft with Tom Brady and Jordan Howard, he needed a WR to drop to him. He was fortunate to have Brandin Cooks fall to the middle of the 3rd round because there is a drop off at the position after him and Demaryius Thomas.

Worst Pick(s): Derrick Henry, 8.8, (RB28) – Jeff waited too long to select his second RB. He should have addressed the position a few rounds earlier, perhaps in the sixth round when he selected Martavis Bryant. Mark Ingram was on the board and would have made a solid RB2 for this squad.

Evaluation: Jeff can plug Carson Palmer in at one of his flex positions. This team is solid at QB and WR but weak at RB2 and TE. He will need a few things to break his way to contend. This team will only go as far as Tom Brady and Brandin Cooks can take it.

post-draft questions

1. In a Superflex draft, what is your strategy for drafting quarterbacks and how did that strategy work for you in this draft?  Targeting Rodgers or Brady.  Much prefer a top QB over a top WR in this draft spot (1.05).  Some may think I reached on Rodgers or Palmer in the fifth, but Superflex weights QB much more than most realize.  Used a 19th round pick to lock in Garoppolo.  I also pick a QB3 like Hoyer or Bradford given the need to play a QB at the flex given the points/game differentials.

2. What players are rising and falling in drafts as we get closer to Week 1. Share your thoughts on these players.  Golladay and Rawls are climbing the drafts while Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews are falling.  Yes, Ezekiel Elliott is falling down the draft at a break-neck speed, but was looking at a deeper set of options.  I also like DeAngelo Henderson (RB, DEN) as a riser. 

3. What pick on your roster do you believe received the best value?  What about another roster?   I liked being able to take Brandin Cooks and Allen Robinson in the 3rd and 4th.  Those two were falling down the draft as QBs were selected high.  

I liked Phil Alexander's Ezekiel Elliott/Darren McFadden combination for the cost of 3.03 and 12.10.  Seems cheap no matter how the situation plays out.  

danny tuccitto - slot 6

Overall Strategy: 2 QBs within the first 3 rounds

Best Pick(s): Delanie Walker, 9.6 (TE11) – I was surprised to see Delanie Walker drop to the 9th round as the 11th TE selected as he currently has an ADP of TE7. Walker is a solid TE in PPR leagues with at least 63 receptions in each of his past 3 seasons. Danny has the luxury of starting him in one of his flex positions.

Worst Pick(s): Frank Gore, 8.7 (RB27) – Danny held off attacking the RB position and was forced to take Frank Gore as his RB2. Gore has been the model of consistency but the wheels are bound to come off at some point. I prefer to target a RB2 with more upside such as C.J. Anderson or Mark Ingram.

Evaluation: Danny threw ADP out the window and targeted certain players. Jameis Winston is an aggressive pick as QB6 in the third-round while Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, and Derek Carr were still available. Stefon Diggs is another player that Danny drafted significantly ahead of his current ADP (WR21 as compared to an ADP of WR31). While it is a high-risk strategy, you ensure that you land the players that you are targeting. If Danny can shore up his RB2 position, this team has the upside to contend for the league championship.

post-draft questions

1. In a Superflex draft, what is your strategy for drafting quarterbacks and how did that strategy work for you in this draft?
This comes down to the math. If you do a simple VBD calculation for all flex-eligible players (i.e., non-starters at QB/RB/WR/TE), you find that the Top 16 values are quarterbacks. For instance, regardless of how awesome you think, say, Martavis Bryant is going to be, it's inescapable that a quarterback like Matthew Stafford is projected to score around 100 more points in your starting lineup. As such, I'm necessarily taking quarterbacks much earlier in Superflex; they're simply more valuable. (Full disclosure: This is coming from an otherwise "Late QB" guy.)

This strategy worked out fine for me. I'm completely happy with Cam Newton as my QB1 as I think he's undervalued this year because of last season's disappointment. At QB2, I probably would have taken Marcus Mariota instead of Jameis Winston in hindsight because he's better across the board according to my "true" stats. That second-guessing, however, is mitigated by the fact that a huge quarterback run ensued after I picked Winston (i.e., 9 of the next 10 picks), and so I was vindicated going QB2 there. Waiting until my next pick (or later) for QB2 would have put me in Eli Manning-Andy Dalton-Carson Wentz (or worse) territory. Yuck.

2. What players are rising and falling in drafts as we get closer to Week 1. Share your thoughts on these players.
Given how quarterback value gums up the works in Superflex, I'm not sure how much useful information this draft gave me to formulate an answer this question. That said, and keeping this Footballguys' mock draft-centric, I can compare the non-quarterback picks in this mock to the previous two redraft mocks I've participated in (Mock 7 and Mock 9) and look for the biggest outliers. Doing so, here are the risers (with commentary):

• Devontae Booker, up about 40 picks: Not sure how to explain this rise, especially given his injury status. Regardless, if I'm taking a flier on a Broncos' running back, it's going to be Jamaal Charles.
• Kenny Golladay, up about 30 picks: Duh, but he still fell to the end of the 13th round here, which says to me that our staff is baking a massive "it's preseason" grain of salt into the cake. My opinion of Golladay is that the cake will be sodium free by Week 1.

• David Njoku, down about 80 picks: He's gone from around 150 in previous mocks to the second-to-last pick of this mock. He's had a back injury and there's been a bunch of Seth DeValve hype among the fantasy football intelligentsia out there, but a fall this far seems excessive. That said, I'm staying away, as I don't take rookie tight ends in redraft.
• LeGarrette Blount and Matt Forte, each down about 50 picks: Recent news out of Eagles camp explains Blount's fall, while a whole host of factors -- age, injury, behind Bilal Powell, the Jets' impending offensive doom, etc. -- explain Forte's fall. I don't like either in the 13th-round (i.e., where they went in this mock), nor do I like them in any round. Blount has no shot -- even via the injuries-to-others path -- of being a three-down back, so why bother when there are other backs who do have said shot out there in later rounds?

1. Walker was TE5 just last year. (I got him at TE11 in this draft.)
2. I had him ranked at 7.07 per format-specific VBD and he had a Superflex ADP of 8.04. (I got him at the 9.06 in this draft.)
3. Mike Mularkey has always utilized tight ends in the passing game because he made his bones as a tight ends coach. Therefore, Walker has a high floor as long as he's healthy. (Note: He's played at least 14 games in 10 straight seasons.)
4. He's been Marcus Mariota's -- i.e., a very good, young quarterback's -- woobie.

daniel simpkins - slot 7

Overall Strategy: 2 Stud QBs

Best Pick(s): Russell Wilson, 2.6 (QB4) – While some would pass on taking back-to-back QBs to start a draft, it makes sense in a superflex league. Daniel was able to lock up two of the Top 5-6 QBs available.

Worst Pick(s): Jack Doyle, 10.6 (TE14) – Daniel waited too long for his TE1. He should have addressed the position a round of two earlier with a player such as Kyle Rudolph or Delanie Walker.

Evaluation: Daniel has the highest projected QB tandem in the league. Starting Russell Wilson at flex gives him a strong weekly advantage in a H2H format. He is above average at the RB and WR position but well below average at the TE position. If Jack Doyle or Ben Watson significantly overperform, this team will be in the mix at the top.

post-draft questions

1. In a Superflex draft, what is your strategy for drafting quarterbacks and how did that strategy work for you in this draft?