In this article, we take a look at the list of games for Week 17 in an effort to give you options that we think can help you get the most out of your lineup. We are looking to maximize your lineup by giving you a few cheaper options that can help you to get your lineup loaded up in other areas.
We give consideration to the script of each of the games to determine how these games will likely play out. We also evaluate the play of the wide receivers and tight ends and how they will match up with the defenses they will face. We also look at players that are injured, or those coming back from injury. We then target plays that we like and a few that we don’t.
With the help of our defensive guru Aaron Rudnicki, let’s take a look at players that we both like and a few that we would avoid this week.
GOOD MATCHUPS
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle @ Arizona ($6,700)
Bischoff: There isn’t a hotter wide receiver in the NFL right now than Baldwin as he’s scored a ridiculous 12 touchdowns over the past seven weeks. He lines up out of the slot for the Seahawks and is a problem for defenses because of his route running chops and his rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson. On paper this looks like a poor matchup but the Cardinals have lost a huge piece with safety Tyrann Mathieu’s knee injury. Mathieu typically locked up opposing slot receivers and the downgrade is something Baldwin can expose.
Rudnicki: Baldwin is one of the hottest WRs in the league and should have a favorable matchup this week. The Cardinals lost Tyrann Mathieu to injury, so Jerraud Powers has taken over slot corner duties and that is a huge drop-off. Patrick Peterson typically shadows the opposing team’s best WR but hasn’t been asked to cover slot receivers very often, which is where Baldwin does most of his damage.
Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets @ Buffalo ($6,500)
Bischoff: This is a nice matchup for Decker and the Jets as they have everything to play for with a playoff spot on the line. Out of the slot, Decker uses a combination of size and route running ability to win his matchup and this week he will have an advantage against a team struggling to cover slot receivers in 2015.
Rudnicki: The Bills have been burned by slot receivers all year, and Decker posted 6/85/1 against them back in week 10. The Jets could still miss the playoffs with a loss this week, so they should be plenty motivated and Decker should have a big advantage over CB Nickell Robey.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit @ Chicago ($6,900)
Bischoff: Johnson has historically been very good versus the Bears, and the Lions come into this Week 17 contest on fire on offense. Johnson has an ankle issue but if he goes, he is worth rostering because of his high upside in this matchup. The Bears don’t have the size/speed combination to cover Johnson and he has the capability to shred their defense.
Rudnicki: Calvin Johnson has had some of his best games against the Bears lately as he terrorized Kyle Fuller. Tracy Porter has been used against the opposing team’s best WRs quite a bit this year, but that’s also a matchup that Johnson should dominate. Make sure he’s healthy enough to start, however, as he’s listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia @ New York Giants ($4,700)
Bischoff: The Eagles and Matthews run into a very poor defensive team as they travel to take on the Giants on the road, and Matthews has heated up recently. Matthews has scored a touchdown in four of the past five games, catching 23 passes over that time for 378 yards. The Giants are ranked dead last in the NFL against the pass and Matthews should end the season on a high note in Week 17.
Rudnicki: The Giants pass defense is strong outside with Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but very vulnerable inside. Matthews should have a favorable matchup against nickel corner Trevin Wade this week.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City vs. Oakland ($6,400)
Bischoff: Maclin and the Chiefs offense have certainly played well during their long winning streak and that should continue this week with the matchup at home versus the Raiders. Maclin is a very good receiver and he plays all over the offensive formation, so the Chiefs will put him in advantageous situations in this game. At his price he is worth rostering in this full-PPR scoring format.
Rudnicki: The Chiefs move Maclin all around the formation so there’s no single matchup he’ll need to worry about. The Raiders have gotten some surprisingly good play from David Amerson this year, but D.J. Hayden and T.J. Carrie have struggled.
Zach Miller, TE, Chicago vs. Detroit ($4,600)
Bischoff: The Lions simply do not have the personnel from an athletic standpoint to cover tight ends and they’ve certainly been burned by tight ends in 2015. Miller is one of the few options left for quarterback Jay Cutler as receiver Alshon Jeffery is out this week, and starting tight end Martellus Bennett has missed time over the past few weeks. He’ll be a focus of the Bears offensive attack and that means he should get to cash/GPP value in Week 17.
Rudnicki: Miller is questionable so watch the injury news to make sure he’s able to play. If he does, however, he should remain a focal point of the Bears passing attack with Alshon Jeffery on IR. The Lions have been very generous to opposing TEs of late with a TD given up in 4 of the last 5 games and 12 in 15 games all year.
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia @ New York Giants ($3,600)
Bischoff: Ertz has emerged as one of the primary weapons in the Eagles passing attack. He has been targeted 40 times over the past four games, and 30 times in the past two games. With that kind of volume, he is easily one of the best options at the tight end position this week. When you throw in the matchup against a porous Giants defense that struggles to stop tight ends, he’s almost an automatic start with the ability to be the No. 1 tight end in Week 17.
Rudnicki: The Giants have been one of the best matchups for tight ends all year, and Ertz has been on fire of late. With 26 catches for 298 yards over the past 3 games, he looks like one of the strongest plays at the position this week.
BAD MATCHUPS:
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay @ Carolina ($7,300)
Bischoff: Panthers cornerback Josh Norman has presented significant matchup challenges for almost every wide receiver in 2015 and this week is no exception. I expect the Panthers to roll safety help to Evans’ side of the field in support of Norman and that is a big limiting factor for Evans this week. Rostering Evans comes at a high price and limits the construction of the rest of your roster. He offers limited upside and is a player to fade in Week 17.
Rudnicki: Evans disappointed against the Bears last week, and now finds a much tougher matchup against Josh Norman. Carolina still has to earn the No. 1 seed, so we probably can’t count on them resting their key players here.
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville @ Houston ($7,800)
Bischoff: Robinson has had an outstanding sophomore season in 2015 and that is probably putting it mildly. He has scored seven touchdowns over the past five weeks, but he’s seen his target share fall over the past few weeks as tight end Julius Thomas has emerged as a weapon for quarterback Blake Bortles. This week the Jaguars draw the league’s No. 3 passing defense in what looks like a stiff test for this passing attack. Considering his price, the matchup and limited upside, Robinson is a candidate to fade this week.
Rudnicki: Robinson figures to be matched up with Jonathan Joseph most of the time this week. While he came through last week thanks mostly to a 90-yard touchdown, the Jaguars seem to be using Julius Thomas and Allen Hurns a lot as well and there may not be enough to go around against a tough Texans defense with a lot on the line here.
Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland @Kansas City ($6,000)
Bischoff: Cooper has struggled a bit over the past six weeks and he hasn’t scored in five of those six contests. Rookies tend to hit the wall late in their first season and that might be happening here, but it also has to do with how opposing defenses are deploying their assets to stop him. He’s had a fantastic rookie season but this week he runs into a defense playing very well versus the pass. These two teams played five weeks ago and the Chiefs held Cooper to four catches for 69 yards and I expect a similar outcome in Week 17. Also, Cooper is dealing with a foot injury and overall this is a player to fade.
Rudnicki: The Chiefs secondary has played very well over the past month, with just one big game given up to Kamar Aiken in Week 15. Meanwhile, Cooper has faded with only one strong game in the same time span and he is dealing with a foot injury as well.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami vs. New England ($6,600)
Bischoff: Landry has become a potent weapon in the short-to-intermediate game and that makes him very valuable asset in PPR scoring, but the matchup versus the Patriots isn’t a good one. If there is a defense that can scheme to limit Landry out of the slot it is the Patriots, and they did exactly that when these teams faced each other earlier this season. He’ll still catch passes but his upside is low and his price is too high for what his outcome is most likely to be.
Rudnicki: Landry figures to be shadowed by Malcolm Butler this week, who has played exceptionally well. While the Dolphins offense typically relies heavily on him, he was held to one of his weaker games when facing the Patriots earlier this year. He still has some value given the point per reception scoring, but likely has limited upside.
Kamar Aiken, WR, Baltimore @ Cincinnati ($5,400)
Bischoff: The Bengals have been great versus wide receivers in 2015, and the quarterback shuffle happening in Baltimore makes Aiken a problematic start in Week 17. Aiken is still seeing enough targets to warrant consideration, but this week he’ll be limited by a very effective Bengals secondary which has stiffened as the season has gone on.
Rudnicki: Aiken has provided very reliable production since Steve Smith went down with an injury. He’ll likely be matched up with Adam Jones for most of this week, however, which should help keep him in check. The Bengals boast a strong pass rush and their secondary has only allowed 2 TDs to opposing WRs in the past 5 games.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver vs. San Diego ($6,700)
Bischoff: Thomas has had a down year by his standards in 2015 and this week he draws a cornerback that his done a great job of limiting No. 1 receivers this season. Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett has been very impressive as an outside cornerback and he’ll present a tough test for Thomas in the regular season finale for the Broncos. It is hard to see an offensive explosion happening in this game, so it is best to fade Thomas this week.
Rudnicki: Thomas figures to be matched up against CB Jason Verrett this week. He left the game last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play, but has been a partial participant in practice. The Broncos found some life on offense late last week, but Thomas still only managed 7 catches on 12 targets for just 59 yards.
Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh ($4,700)
Bischoff: Barnidge has been fantastic this season, coming out of nowhere to surprise all season long. However, the Browns are down to starting Austin Davis at quarterback and the Steelers have been stingy of late, pretty much erasing opposing tight ends from the offensive game plan.
Rudnicki: The Steelers pass defense has improved of late, and they have done particularly well against the TE position. In their last 4 games, no opposing TE has found the end zone and the highest point total allowed was to Tyler Eifert with 6.2. With Austin Davis expected to start for Cleveland, all Browns players should likely be downgraded.
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington @ Dallas ($6,500)
Bischoff: Reed has emerged as a significant piece for the Washington offense. He is a matchup nightmare for defenses as he is really a wide receiver in a tight end’s body. One of the issues with Reed is keeping him healthy and with almost nothing to play for in Week 17, it’s hard to see the Redskins taking on any risk with Reed. There is very little reason to use Reed in Week 17, and it is bets to fade him.
Rudnicki: Washington has little to play for this week, so they are expected to rest many of their key players. That could mean limited snaps for Reed, who also happens to face a defense that has been very stingy to opposing receivers of late. Reed only posted 3 catches for 33 yards when he faced the same team back in week 13.
