Was Baker Mayfield's 2024 Season the Outlier?

The Footballguys staff discusses whether Baker Mayfield is a high-end QB2 worth targeting.

Jason Wood's Was Baker Mayfield's 2024 Season the Outlier? Jason Wood Published 04/22/2026

© Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.

We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.

We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Coin-Toss Questions


Baker Mayfield's 2024 season looks like an outlier, with 2025 resembling his prior career marks fairly closely. Are you on board with Mayfield bouncing back into the near-elite, or are you comfortable with him as a mid- to low-end fantasy QB2?

Jeff Haseley: I'm comfortable with Baker Mayfield as a mid-range QB2. 2024 was likely his ceiling; 2025 showed us his true floor. He's a safe veteran, but not someone who will win you your league. He's a good option as your QB2, but I would not feel comfortable relying on him as my QB1.

Maurile Tremblay: I'd view him as a high-end QB2. He'll have a better schematic fit under Zac Robinson, and likely better support if the line and Bucky Irving are healthier. The 2024 near-elite version looks like Mayfield's ceiling. Losing Mike Evans lowers the margin for error, but he's still a solid QB2 who can flirt with QB1 weeks.

Andy Hicks: The 2024 season looks like an outlier, though it's only fair to consider the context. Baker Mayfield was without key weapons for long stretches — Chris Godwin Jr. missed eight games, Jalen McMillan 13, Bucky Irving seven, and Mike Evans nine. Even so, he was ranked fourth after six weeks. Expecting QB1 production while throwing to Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard is a tough ask. A healthier supporting cast should provide a clearer picture this season, and a high-end QB2 projection feels more appropriate. It's also worth focusing on his time in Tampa rather than in Cleveland — since arriving, Mayfield has finished 12th, 3rd, and 9th overall, evidence of a much more stable and productive phase of his career.

Jason Wood's Verdict

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