We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Atlanta Falcons Coin-Toss Questions
- Is Tommy Rees a Red Flag for the Falcons' Fantasy Outlook?
- Will Tagovailoa or Penix Start Week 1 for Atlanta?
- Can Robinson Replicate Allgeier's Production?
- Will Pitts Repeat as a Top-5 Fantasy Tight End?
- Is There a Draftable No. 2 Receiver Behind London?
Who do you expect to start Week One: Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.? How many games do you expect each to start this season?
Jeff Haseley: I see Tua Tagovailoa as the clear Week 1 starter. Michael Penix Jr. is still working his way back from a torn ACL he suffered in November, so he will likely need some ramp-up time. I expect Tagovailoa to start the first 10–12 games, with Penix potentially taking over late in the season once he's fully healthy and the Falcons see where they stand in the playoff race.
Andy Hicks: Miami is carrying nearly $100 million in dead cap tied to Tua Tagovailoa, who arrives in Atlanta on a veteran minimum deal. Michael Penix Jr. still needs to recover from his ACL and prove he belongs at the NFL level, creating a legitimate, open competition for the starting job. In an ideal world, the coaching staff would prefer their high draft investment in a fully healthy Penix to take the reins, with Tagovailoa as the fallback option. Based on what we've seen so far, though, Tagovailoa is the more reliable choice to start. A balanced approach may make the most sense — give Penix, if fit, the first four games to establish himself, then reassess. If he struggles, Tagovailoa can take over for the remainder of the season.
Maurile Tremblay: I'd expect Tua Tagovailoa to start Week 1. He has the inside track, while Michael Penix Jr. is still early in ACL recovery and could even begin the year on the PUP list. My guess is about 10 starts for Tua and 7 for Penix. That feels like the most likely split if Tua opens the season and Penix gets his shot once he's fully healthy.