Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings and Strategy

Before we begin the rankings, the most important strategy tip is to take strong positions on a group of 1-2 teams on each side of the bracket. Spreading your top 10 picks out on 6-7 teams is a losing strategy. At the end of your playoff fantasy draft, you want to see two or three potential matchups in the Super Bowl that should equal a high chance of winning for you. You might not be able to pick the exact teams that you want, but it is important to roll with the flow of the draft. If you wanted Josh Allen but had to settle for Trevor Lawrence, then you are going to favor the Jaguars over the Bills for the rest of your draft. Much more than a typical fantasy draft, your early picks should dictate the middle and late selections.

A Note on Playoff Picks

Take a stand on the outcome of the playoff brackets with your picks. Some of these calls are 52/48, and how they break can greatly affect projections for the next round of the bracket. However, relying on small margins to make selections is the essence of what we do in fantasy football.

Wild Card Picks in Order of Confidence

High Confidence

• LA Rams over Carolina - Yes, the Panthers won in Week 13, but everything had to break their way in that game. There are good reasons that the Rams are favored by 10 points, and it's probably not smart to pick against them.

Medium Confidence

• Houston over Pittsburgh - The Texans' defense might be the strongest force on the AFC side of the bracket. If their offense doesn't make any big errors, they should win.
• Philadelphia over San Francisco - The Eagles have the right kind of offense to expose the 49ers' injuries at linebacker, and Brock Purdy has struggled against good defenses. The Eagles have one.
• New England over LA Chargers - The Chargers' offense hasn't been the same since Joe Alt got hurt. The unknown of Drake Maye is more appealing than the disappointing Justin Herbert we have seen in his two playoff appearances - both losses.
• Green Bay over Chicago - Is Chicago a good team? They needed an onside kick recovery to beat the Packers in Chicago just three weeks ago. Jordan Love got knocked out of that game in the first half, and Josh Jacobs should feel better for this matchup after a week of rest than he did in Week 16.

Low Confidence

• Jacksonville over Buffalo - Could Josh Allen really go one and done in a year when Patrick Mahomes II and Joe Burrow both missed the playoffs? Could the Jaguars go one and done after finishing the season with eight straight wins, including a 35-6 thrashing of the Chargers and 34-20 thumping of the Broncos in Denver? One of the two will happen. It's reasonable to say that the winner should be the Super Bowl favorite.

Divisional Round Picks in Order of Confidence

Medium Confidence

• Seattle over Green Bay - In actuality, the Seahawks are closer to high confidence in this matchup, but if the Packers lose to the Bears, the Seahawks are on a collision course with the Rams unless the 49ers beat the Eagles in Philadelphia. So we can't project the Seahawks through to the Conference Championship with high confidence.

Low Confidence

• LA Rams over Philadelphia - The Rams all but beat a better Eagles team with Kellen Moore calling plays in the Philadelphia snow last year in the playoffs. We're picking the Rams here, but with the understanding that if the Bears beat the Packers, we could see this matchup in the NFC Championship game.
• Houston over Denver - Much like the Bears, I find myself unconvinced that the Broncos can win a tough game against a playoff-quality opponent. The Broncos did beat the Texans 18-15 earlier this season. But C.J. Stroud got knocked out of that game in the first half, and Bo Nix had to author one of the many frantic fourth-quarter comebacks that vaulted the Broncos to the #1 seed. The Broncos could get a slightly easier draw if the Chargers beat the Patriots or if the Steelers win a street fight against the Texans, but they could also face Josh Allen coming off a win against a Jaguars team that outclassed them in their house a few weeks ago. This version of the Broncos has not been tested in the postseason, which could lead to an early demise.
• Jacksonville over New England - The Jaguars' chances of beating Drake Maye in Foxboro might be better than their chances of beating the Bills at home next week. If the Chargers upset the Patriots and set up a divisional matchup with the Texans/Steelers winner, the Jaguars have an even better chance to go to the AFC Championship game. Of course, they are low confidence to beat the Bills in the Wild Card round. And the Bills would be low-confidence against the Patriots or Texans in basically coinflip games, but perhaps a higher-confidence pick on the road against the Broncos. A Patriots/Texans matchup is also in play here, which would be close to a coin-flip game. This is getting confusing. Just know that it's reasonable to project any of (or two of) Jacksonville, Buffalo, or New England to go to the AFC Championship or Super Bowl.

Conference Championship Picks in Order of Confidence

Low Confidence

• Jacksonville over Houston - The underlying belief here is more accurately that the AFC Championship game should include the Jacksonville/Buffalo winner. The other team could be New England or Houston, and if the Chargers can beat the Patriots, then one of the teams will be Denver or Los Angeles. Denver would be a medium confidence underdog in the AFC Championship game, even at home, against a team that has won two playoff games. Buffalo/New England would be a coin flip, and Buffalo/Houston might actually favor Houston after how they performed against Josh Allen earlier this season. So the real AFC Super Bowl pick is really something like 35% Jacksonville, 30% Buffalo, 20% New England, 10% Houston, 5% Denver.
• LA Rams over Seattle - Keep in mind that if the Bears beat the Packers and the Eagles beat the 49ers, this will be a divisional round matchup. That makes it tougher to be confident in the Seahawks' ability to even win one playoff game despite having the #1 seed. That also creates a path for the Eagles to go back to the Super Bowl if the Seahawks hold serve against the Rams in the divisional round and Philadelphia can win in Seattle. Those are the three most credible contenders in the NFC, with a distribution along the lines of 45% Rams, 30% Philadelphia, 25% Seattle.

Tiered Team Ranking
By Range of Outcomes/Fantasy Offensive Potential

First Tier: Cornerstones

• LA Rams

Second Tier: Potential Champs with One-and-Done Risk

• Philadelphia
• Jacksonville
• Buffalo
• New England
• Seattle
• Houston

Third Tier: Multiple Games Possible, but a Super Bowl Run?

• Denver
• LA Chargers
• San Francisco
• Green Bay
• Chicago

Fourth Tier: Likely One and Done

• Carolina
• Pittsburgh

Strategy Notes and Rankings

• With 14 playoff teams and six Wild Card games, you don't need to weigh players going on Wild Card weekend with your early picks. There will be plenty of players projected to go one-and-done to fill out your lineup if you want to take strong positions on Denver or Seattle early.
• Alternatively, Denver and Seattle are among the shakier pairs of #1 seeds that we have seen, so it's reasonable to only give them a small value bump - if any value bump at all - because they are assured of playing in the divisional round.
• The Rams employ a running back and tight end committee, and their offense has two of the top three PPR wide receivers on a points per game average. You should be able to build a nice position on the Rams in the early rounds, even if you don't take one of their players in your first two picks. If you don't get a good chunk of the Rams offense, it should be by design to capture a good share of the Eagles or Seahawks instead.
• The AFC field is deep with at least four credible Super Bowl contenders, so you should be able to use your early picks to align with your AFC favorite, no matter who it is.
• The supply of top-end fantasy running backs and wide receivers is thin this year, but there is ample depth at both positions to build a promising group without a true anchor. Let your Super Bowl picks guide you in the early rounds.
• Tight end is a fantasy wasteland lacking punch at the top. Don't feel like you need to take any of the top five options unless you are confident their team is going to the Super Bowl, or if they align with other early picks to strengthen a position on a team to go to the Super Bowl.
• Don't be afraid to reach a round or two early to break the seal on kicker or D/ST to align with your early picks to strengthen your Super Bowl positions - especially if you are picking Jacksonville or Houston. Cam Little and the Houston D/ST would likely be among the top 15-20 overall scorers if they play four games.

Quarterback Rankings (Adjust for Your Bracket Projection Within Tiers)