We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Houston Texans Coin-Toss Questions
- Can Stroud Return to Top-12 Fantasy QB Status?
- Is Montgomery a Reliable Fantasy Starter in Houston?
- Is Collins Still a Fantasy WR1 in 2026?
- Are Higgins, Dell, or Noel Worth Drafting in 2026?
- Will the Texans' Offensive Line Upgrades Matter for Fantasy?
C.J. Stroud was QB9 as a rookie, QB33 in his second year, and then bounced back to QB23 last season. Where do you rank Stroud, and what odds do you put on him returning to Top 12 status this season?
Maurile: I'd put Stroud around QB16, with about a 25 percent chance to get back into the Top 12. Houston has invested in protection, Tank Dell is expected back, and Dalton Schultz remains a steady target. The reason I'm still below QB1 range is that the 2025 production still points to a fairly controlled offense.
Andy: Stroud's 34th ranking in 2024 is a bit misleading — five of the players ahead of him had fewer than 50 pass attempts that season, and Stroud barely played in the season finale, distorting those statistics. If anything, his 23rd-place finish in 2025 is a fairer reflection of where he actually is. A bounce-back was not in evidence; stagnation or even regression may be a fairer term. I still have faith that Stroud makes himself a successful NFL quarterback if paired with the right offensive coordinator. We have already seen his work with Nick Caley in 2025. Top-12 fantasy numbers require a suspension of reality. He has upside to rank this high, but QB16-24 is a more likely scenario.
Jeff: I have Stroud ranked in the QB14-15 range. Last year's QB23 finish was a sobering reminder of the sophomore slump, even if it technically came in Year Three. I'd put the odds of him returning to the Top 12 at about 40%. He's a surgeon when protected, but the inconsistency of his weapons and offensive line has muddied his floor. Another factor keeping him from the Top 10-12 is his lack of rushing ability.