Shifting Fantasy Values After Geno Smith's Trade To Las Vegas

The Seahawks have traded QB Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders. What does it mean for his 2025 fantasy football outlook? Find out in this instant reaction article!

Bob Harris's Shifting Fantasy Values After Geno Smith's Trade To Las Vegas Bob Harris Published 03/07/2025

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The Las Vegas Raiders are acquiring veteran quarterback Geno Smith in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks. According to NFL Media, the Raiders will send a 2025 third-round pick to Seattle in exchange for Smith.

The deal is expected to be finalized on Monday when the NFL's free agent negotiating period begins. 

According to Seattle Times staffer Bob Condotta, the trade reportedly comes after a breakdown in contract talks between the two sides. Smith is entering the final year of a three-year contract due to pay him $31 million this season, including three bonus escalators he hit a year ago.

As NFL.com's Nick Shook noted, Smith revived his career in Seattle, taking over for Russell Wilson in 2022 and delivering a career-best 69.8 percent completion rate, 4,282 passing yards, and a 30-11 TD-INT ratio while leading the Seahawks to a surprising playoff berth. His performance earned him a three-year, $75 million deal with Seattle, but he couldn't replicate that success over the next two seasons, leading Seattle into division races but falling short of the postseason in the last two years.

In his three seasons as a starter with the Seahawks, Smith proved his experience and talents were enough to steer a team toward contention. Since moving on from Derek Carr, the Raiders have cycled through multiple quarterbacks and are seeking stability under center, which explains their decision to acquire Smith.

It's also worth noting that Smith's old head coach, Pete Carroll, will be waiting to work with him again in Las Vegas.

Fantasy Football Impact

Smith is coming off an up-and-down 2024 season in which he passed for a career-best 4,320 yards, a franchise record, with 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. While starting all 17 games, Smith also posted a completion rate of 70.4 percent, carrying an offense with an overmatched line and no consistent run game. 

He also led four game-winning drives, giving him nine over the past two seasons, tying Patrick Mahomes II for the most in the NFL in that span.

However, Smith's 15 interceptions were the third-most in the NFL. Four picks came in the red zone (most in the NFL). He was sacked 50 times (third-most).

Still, Smith is an immediate upgrade for the Raiders, who just this week informed Gardner Minshew II he'd be released. The team previously released Desmond Ridder, leaving Aidan O'Connell as the only quarterback on the roster. 

At the price of a third-round pick, this deal does not exclude the Raiders from selecting a quarterback in April's draft.

But for now, Smith will head into the season locked in as the team's QB1, and fantasy managers invested in star tight end Brock Bowers and veteran receiver Jakobi Meyers will benefit from the change.

That said, Bowers is already the TE1 on the Footballguys 2025 Projections. Meyers remains a value, with a current WR46 Average Draft Position in early Underdog best-ball drafts.

The Fantasy Football Fallout

While surprising, the trade immediately makes Seattle a prime destination for Sam Darnold, who enjoyed his own renaissance in 2024 with the Vikings but likely isn't in their long-term plans. With free agency's start just a few days away, it's fair to expect the Seahawks to pursue the former first-round pick out of USC.

Darnold played on a one-year deal with the Vikings in 2024 worth $10 million. Pro Football Focus estimates he could command a three-year deal worth just over $123 million with $70 million guaranteed.

But Condotta reports the Seahawks are willing to do what it takes to acquire Darnold.

There is a connection there, as Darnold spent the 2023 season with the 49ers, and the new Seattle offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, served as the offensive passing game specialist.

Still, there are questions beyond that. 

On Wednesday, word emerged that Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf wants to be traded -- and that the team will explore it. On Thursday, general manager John Schneider confirmed the situation during an appearance on Seattle Sports 710. "Everything is in a cordial, professional place," Schneider said via Brady Henderson of ESPN.com. "Obviously, DK has requested a trade, and we are entertaining that. We are talking to a ton of teams, taking offers, seeing what that looks like."

The team released receiver Tyler Lockett this week, leaving Jaxon Smith-Njigba, coming off a breakout 100-catch, 1,130-yard, six-touchdown season, as the top downfield threat -- assuming Metcalf gets his wish.  

That said, Schneider didn't rule out not trading Metcalf, who is coming off a 66-catch, 992-yard, five-touchdown season (having missed two games with a knee injury). So, fantasy investors should take a wait-and-see approach to the degree possible. 

As for Ken Walker III, the standout running back who appears to be an ideal fit for Kubiak's offense should fare reasonably well with competent quarterback play.

Stock Watch

Risers

Fallers

Overview

The Las Vegas Raiders have acquired quarterback Geno Smith in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle will get a third-round pick in the trade. The trade reunites Smith with Pete Carroll, who coached Smith in Seattle from 2020 to 2023. The Seahawks are said to be focused on signing Sam Darnold in free agency.

 

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