In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please roll with the recommendations found in the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. With the NFL's variance battling me every step of the way, my pursuit of the elusive .500 mark has been challenging. But I've been on a roll for more than a month now, with Week 15 further boosting the overall record. Let's review:
- I was in on Lions QB Jared Goff, who was projected for a QB14 in a plus matchup against the Steelers. I predicted a top-12 finish. Goff was QB6. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, who was projected for a QB4 finish against a Denver defense that had given up 13.7 points per game to the position over their previous eight games. I predicted he would fall outside the top 10. Lawrence had other ideas. He finished as QB1 overall with a whopping 31.2 points. Big miss. ❌
- I was in on Saints RB Audric Estime, admittedly without much actual evidence to go on beyond some receiving work the week before and a great matchup against a generous Jets defense. I predicted Estime would get enough work to outperform his RB34 projection. He did not. Estime finished the week as RB45. Another big miss. ❌
- I was out on Steelers RB Jaylen Warren, who was projected to finish as RB24 in a fairly tough running back matchup against Detroit. Warren had fallen far enough behind Kenneth Gainwell that I had been dialing back expectations for his running mate, hence my prediction that Warren wouldn't hit his projection. That was not how it played out. Warren finished the week as RB5 with a season-high 29.1 fantasy points. Doink. Another miss. ❌
- I was in on 49ers WR Jauan Jennings, who was projected for a WR26 finish against the Colts. That was well under his average over the last month plus, so I predicted a WR2 finish against a depleted Indianapolis secondary. Mission accomplished. Jennings was WR16 for the week. A much-needed hit. ✅
- I was out on Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle, who was projected for a WR16 finish despite a QB change (Quinn Ewers started over the benched Tua Tagovailoa) in a matchup against a Bengals defense that's fared pretty well against opposing receivers (and less so against opposing RBs and TEs). I predicted Waddle would fall outside the top 20. He was WR28. Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Dolphins TE Darren Waller, going up against the most favorable matchup in all of fantasy football: TE vs. the Bengals. Of course, Miami's QB change complicated this one. Given the circumstances, I was reasonable in my prediction, a finish inside TE1 territory. Waller, who was projected to finish as TE16, didn't even come close. He was TE20. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr., going up against the least favorable matchup in all of fantasy football: TE vs. the Bills, who were giving up less than 7 points per game to the position. My bad. Fannin isn't a regular tight end. He's a versatile offensive weapon. He was projected to finish as TE2. I predicted he'd fall outside the top 10. He was TE2 on the week with 19.5 points. Bleh. Yet another big miss. ❌
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Texans RB Jawhar Jordan, who was projected to finish as RB55? Nick Chubb (ribs) and Woody Marks (ankle) were both questionable heading into this one, but I felt Jordan could beat his number even if both played. Once Marks was declared inactive, it became a fait accompli. Jordan finished as RB26. A hit. ✅
Thus ends my five-week streak of .500 or better finishes. As usual, I have nobody to blame but myself, except maybe Lawrence's unstoppable momentum, Estime's lack of opportunities, Warren's big plays, Miami's QB change, and Fannin's versatility.
Here's where we stand after 16 weeks:
Week 16: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 73 hits; 71 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. We head into Week 17 sitting at .506. It sets up some interesting decisions. Should I play it safe and preserve the percentage? Or should I continue taking big swings? Let's get into it!
One more time: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Caleb Williams, Chicago @ San Francisco
As Sports Illustrated's Gene Chamberlain pointed out, Williams will not make Ben Johnson's goal of 70 percent completions this year unless he completes 201 passes without an incompletion in the last two games.
So far this season, the 24-year-old has played in 15 games. Williams has completed 57.8 percent of his pass attempts for 3,400 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
In addition, he has rushed for 369 yards and three more touchdowns.
Even with the lower-than-desired completion percentage, Williams is exactly 600 yards away from becoming the first quarterback in Bears history to throw for 4,000 yards.
He'll also set an NFL mark for most games without an interception in a QB's first two years if he goes without an interception against the 49ers. It would be 23 games.
That's all pretty good.
Better still, Williams and the Bears head to San Francisco to take on a 49ers defense that just allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 277 yards with a pair of touchdowns (good for 17.1 fantasy points).
On the season, San Francisco has allowed 27 passing scores (sixth most), and it has the fewest sacks (18) this season.
Williams, meanwhile, came through with 21 fantasy points against Green Bay on Saturday and now has 19-plus fantasy points in two straight and in eight of 15 games this season.
Bottom line: Williams' Footballguys projection calls for a QB11 finish (with 18.5 points). I expect Williams to finish inside the top 10.
Out: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay @ Miami
I'm not going to lie. Since I'm rolling exclusively with players in the Sunday and Monday games, some of my decisions have been challenging.
This is one of them.
At first glance, Mayfield's matchup against Miami isn't all that imposing. But as NFL Network's Michael F. Florio noted, it's still not an easy call because Mayfield has struggled in recent weeks.
Pewter Report's Adam Slivon put it all in perspective, noting that since starting 5-1, a six-game stretch where Mayfield completed 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,539 yards with 12 touchdowns to just one interception, the last nine games have been much more inconsistent.
Mayfield's completion percentage has fallen to just 58.5 percent while throwing for 1,605 yards and 11 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
Florio added to that by pointing out that in five of the past six games, Mayfield has thrown just one touchdown pass while failing to reach 200 yards, posting a 7:6 TD-to-INT ratio in that span.
The struggles have continued even as his receiving corps has returned to full strength with all the components in place.
"Even with [Mayfield] running more," Florio wrote, "the fantasy results have lacked."
Mayfield has just two QB1 performances (with 18.9 points in Week 11 and 22.9 points in Week 10) in his last eight games.
And though he's QB18 in total points over that span, his 13.3-point per game average ranks 30th among all QBs over that span, which includes a pair of single-digit outings (3.5 points in Week 12 and 6.1 points in Week 8).
All in all, it leaves me less than enthusiastic about Mayfield's prospects, even going up against a Dolphins defense that just gave up 300 passing yards, allowed four touchdown passes, and yielded 29 fantasy points to Cincinnati's Joe Burrow last week.
Bottom line: Mayfield's Footballguys projection has him as QB10 (19.1 points), which is high for my liking. I expect him to fall short of that number.