With three games on Christmas and two more on Saturday night, we are dealing with the smallest main slate of the season at just nine games. Motivation could be an issue. In fact, the chalkiest player on the entire slate, Ashton Jeanty, who is projected to be rostered on more than 50 percent of teams, plays for a franchise that is heavily incentivized to lose. A Raiders loss to the Giants would go a long way toward locking up the top overall pick in the draft and finally landing a true franchise quarterback. Raiders star defender Maxx Crosby reportedly wanted to play this week but was told his services were not needed, leading to an angry exit from the building.
We have seen this movie before. Six years ago, the Dolphins beat the Bengals in overtime in Week 17, and a few months later, they offered Cincinnati multiple first-round picks to swap draft slots to acquire Joe Burrow. Miami had to settle for Tua Tagovailoa instead. These meaningless late-season games can have long-lasting consequences for NFL franchises, which gives us a real reason to dig deeper into motivation and potentially be skeptical of the most popular play on the slate.
Overall, the small slate combined with a large number of low-total games is setting us up for some of the most concentrated ownership of the season. In addition to Jeanty, the key pieces in the Cardinals-Bengals game are also expected to be extremely popular. The Bengals have a slate-high 30.2-point team total as 7-point home favorites over the Cardinals, whose 23.2-point total is the sixth-highest on the slate.
The second game expected to draw heavy tournament attention is Indianapolis-Jacksonville. The Jaguars have been one of the hottest offenses in the NFL in recent weeks, carry a 27.0-point team total, and face a Colts defense that did not look remotely capable of slowing down San Francisco on Monday night.
The Patriots will also be popular. New England is a massive favorite against the Jets, and Drake Maye is coming off a ceiling game after lighting up the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest matchups, where teams are expected to score below their 2025 average.
It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense-versus-position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 17 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Las Vegas
This number has dipped a bit since early in the week, when it initially sat at a 49 percent scoring boost, and we do have to account for the fact that a Week 17 win would be a major setback for a Raiders franchise that would have a much brighter future with Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore at quarterback. That would be especially true if Las Vegas were able to land one of the top rookie quarterbacks without mortgaging its future by trading up for a premium pick. While that broader context matters, everything else still points toward Ashton Jeanty being a smash play this week. Las Vegas carries a 35 percent Week 17 scoring boost, and the Giants are giving up 5.6 fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing running backs, the second-highest mark in the NFL.
Cincinnati
The Bengals have a 30.2-point team total, which represents a 26 percent increase over their season average. Arizona has struggled mightily against opposing running backs, though Chase Brown has been sharing the backfield with Samaje Perine a bit more than you would ideally like. Still, Brown is coming off a three-touchdown performance in Week 16 and has a clear path to another big game. While the Cardinals have generally held up well against opposing passing offenses, Joe Burrow has a long track record of delivering massive fantasy performances in December.
New Orleans
The Saints have won three straight games, averaging 24.5 points per contest over that stretch. With matchups against the Titans and Falcons still ahead, the franchise has an opportunity to build real momentum around rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. That push begins in Week 17 against a Tennessee defense that was recently shredded by another rookie quarterback in Shedeur Sanders. New Orleans owns a 24 percent Week 17 scoring boost, setting up potential ceiling games for Shough, Chris Olave, and Juwan Johnson.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 17 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Philadelphia
The first spot that jumps off the page is Philadelphia. The Eagles’ 21.5-point team total is modest and represents an 8 percent decrease from their season average. Even so, this sets up as a spot where Saquon Barkley could find success. The Bills are allowing 4.4 fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing running backs, and Barkley has started to regain his form down the stretch.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville’s 27.0-point team total is the third-highest on the slate, and the Jaguars have been blowing out opponents with some regularity over the past month. Trevor Lawrence should be one of the most popular quarterback options in tournaments, and his top pass catchers offer weekly ceiling outcomes. The challenge, as usual, will be identifying which of them hits in any given week.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow
Burrow has thrown four touchdown passes in two of his last three games, including a dominant 309-yard, four-touchdown performance on just 32 attempts against Miami last week. With his full complement of weapons healthy and a defense that often forces him to stay aggressive for all four quarters, Burrow is set up well for another ceiling game. He has been a late-season assassin throughout his career and reminded us of that with a 40-point fantasy explosion in Week 17 last season.
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has been the hottest quarterback in the NFL over the past two weeks, throwing for 609 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 71 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. While the massive Week 15 performance could be partially dismissed due to the matchup with the Jets, his showing last week on the road against Denver is much harder to ignore. The Broncos are one of the toughest environments in the league for opposing quarterbacks, and Lawrence carved them up anyway. He now gets an ideal matchup against an Indianapolis defense that just surrendered 295 passing yards and five touchdowns to Brock Purdy.
Josh Allen
On paper, there is nothing particularly appealing about Allen’s matchup against Philadelphia, and that lack of excitement is exactly what makes him interesting this week. Everyone sees the same tough matchup and is hesitant to pay up, which should push Allen’s ownership into the two to three percent range. A player with Allen’s weekly ceiling should never be that lightly rostered, especially on a small nine-game slate with very few quarterbacks capable of matching his upside if things break right.
Jacoby Brissett
Since taking over as the starter, Brissett has averaged 291.1 passing yards and 1.9 touchdowns per game. He now draws an elite matchup against a Bengals defense that offers little in the way of pass rush and has struggled mightily against quarterbacks. Cincinnati is allowing 3.3 fantasy points per game above expectation to the position, the highest mark on the Week 17 main slate. In a game that has clear shootout potential, Brissett stands out as a lower-priced, lower-owned pivot off the more popular Burrow.