Wide Receiver Tiers, Targets, and Players to Avoid

Photo: USA Today Sports

Wide receiver is the position of strength early in drafts this year. But you'll also need to have clarity on mid-round targets and might find that you don't like the bench-round players as much as you usually do.

RELATED: See Sigmund's Quarterbacks Tiers here >>>

Knowing the landscape and having your targets and avoids in mind is more essential at wide receiver than any other position. Let's break it down.

Elite WR1s

CeeDee Lamb, DAL
Tyreek Hill, MIA

TARGET AT ADP: Lamb, Hill

This group sets the standard. No reason for either to ever fall past 3 in a PPR league.

Lamb's holdout worry is balanced by the gap between him and everyone else at wide receiver after the Cowboys' bye week adjustments last year. We can all see the team is sunk without him. They will sign him.

Hill tied his career high in receptions, set his career high in yards, and fell only two short of his career-high touchdowns last year. He's 30 but has established a ceiling that no one but Lamb and Jefferson has touched yet.

Strong WR1s

Justin Jefferson, MIN
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
Ja'Marr Chase, CIN
A.J. Brown, PHI

TARGET AT ADP: Jefferson, St. Brown, Brown
AVOID AT ADP: Chase

This group is knocking on the door of elite production. They are good gets in the 4-8 range of PPR drafts.

Jefferson transcended bad quarterback play last year, and Sam Darnold might not be that bad. Jefferson could lead the league in targets with an iffy supporting cast. The demonstrated ceiling makes the quarterback risk tolerable.

St. Brown did more downfield last year and played hurt for part of the year. There's room to grow; he feels like the safest pick in this tier.

Chase's holdout worries also seem minor, but he's still overrated at pick 4 or 5 because he hasn't put up the numbers St. Brown and Jefferson have at their best yet. 

Brown produced like a top-five pick in the first half of the year but faded with the Eagles offense in the second half. Kellen Moore could improve things for him. He's an easy pick at 9.

High-Ceiling WR1s

Garrett Wilson, NYJ
Puka Nacua, LAR
Cooper Kupp, LAR
Drake London, ATL

TARGET ABOVE ADP: Kupp
TARGET AT ADP: Wilson, Nacua, London

This group has a top-end range of outcomes in the top five, but none have done it yet. Some have a lower floor than receivers in lower tiers, but upside wins championships.

Wilson just needs Aaron Rodgers to stay healthy. There's no reason to think Wilson can't produce Davante Adams numbers with Rodgers.

Nacua can improve in year two, but it's fair to ask if he will get fewer targets with a healthier (hopefully) Kupp. Nacua has a higher floor but maybe a lower ceiling than his tier peers.

London has always looked like a #1 but had terrible quarterback play. He's worth a second round because of his unknown upside and strong quarterback depth chart. 

Strong WR2s

Big Plays

Jaylen Waddle, MIA
Nico Collins, HOU
Deebo Samuel, Jr., SF
Brandon Aiyuk, SF
Mike Evans, TB

Target Volume

Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI
Malik Nabers, NYG
Davante Adams, LV

TARGET ABOVE ADP: Waddle, Collins
TARGET AT ADP: Samuel, Nabers, Aiyuk, Evans
AVOID AT ADP: Harrison, Adams

This group is going to make up a lot of the picks from the mid-second to the mid-third round. It's possible we could see a few break out into the WR1 tier.

Waddle just needs to stay healthy, and if he does, he should set career highs in yardage and touchdowns. 

Collins was incredibly efficient with C.J. Stroud last year. He should at least match last year's numbers, which he put up with a modest 109 targets. The addition of Stefon Diggs may take away some targets but should also put more stress on defenses for Collins to exploit.

Samuel could be a first-round value if Aiyuk gets traded, but who knows how to estimate the chances of that? He is having a good summer, and McCaffrey breaking the injury seal in camp helps the case to take Samuel in the second.

Evans will probably have trouble hitting last year's numbers with Chris Godwin in the Cooper Kupp role in Liam Coen's offense, but the chemistry between him and Baker Mayfield makes him worth an early third despite being in his age 31 season.

Aiyuk would take a big hit if he goes to Pittsburgh but is a slight value in the early-mid third if he's a 49er this season.

Harrison is being drafted at his ceiling in the early second. It's going to be fun to watch him, but that's too expensive.

Nabers has lower quarterback quality than Harrison, but he's a more explosive player. It won't be as bad as Garrett Wilson with the Jets, and Nabers is a better pick at ADP than Harrison.

Adams was basically Garrett Wilson with a few more scores last year. There could be incremental improvement in quarterback play, but Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers aren't going away and this team wants to run the ball. He's also turning 32 this year.

Potential Breakout WR2s

DeVonta Smith, PHI
Chris Olave, NO
Zay Flowers, BAL
Tank Dell, HOU
Terry McLaurin, WAS
George Pickens, PIT

TARGET ABOVE ADP: Flowers, Dell, McLaurin
TARGET AT ADP: Smith, Pickens
AVOID AT ADP: Olave

There's a case to be made for all of this group to set career highs across the board, but there are potential bumps in the road and all could disappoint. This is good group to target in the fourth round.

Smith has had a great summer and could be set up for a big target share if he's used as the motion receiver in the Kellen Moore offense. He's a safe third-round pick.

Olave only took a small step forward with Derek Carr last year, and Rashid Shaheed continues to be a compelling option, capping Olave's ceiling. He's being drafted at his ceiling.

Flowers should take a step forward this year and the Ravens offense could along with him to create a true breakout season as the option most likely to get behind defenses stacking the box to contain Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Dell's chemistry with C.J. Stroud is good enough to ignore the potential to lose snaps and targets to Stefon Diggs. Dell was outproducing Aiyuk, Collins, Pittman, Adams, Olave, and Smith on a per-game basis when he went down last year.

McLaurin is one of the best values on the board at wide receiver. He's the clear #1 option in this offense and should benefit greatly from Jayden Daniels' deep passing prowess. A breakout similar to DJ Moore's last year is possible, if not likely.

A Brandon Aiyuk trade could torpedo Pickens, but if not, the 11-326-2 he put up with Mason Rudolph at quarterback in Weeks 16 and 17 combined last year is tough to ignore, assuming Arthur Smith doesn't mess this up.