Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary game script to help narrow down your decisions for the week.
Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus on those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league, and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
BYE WEEK: Pittsburgh, San Francisco
Three Stars
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen (Bills)
Running Backs
- James Cook (Bills)
- Derrick Henry (Ravens)
- Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)
- Chase Brown/Zack Moss (Bengals)
Receivers
Team Defense
- None
Two Stars
Quarterbacks
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Kirk Cousins (Falcons)
- Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Joe Burrow (Bengals)
Running Backs
- Bijan Robinson (Falcons)
- Saquon Barkley (Eagles)
Receivers
- Zay Flowers/Rashod Bateman/Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely (Ravens)
- Drake London/Darnell Mooney/Kyle Pitts (Falcons)
- Xavier Worthy/Justin Watson/DeAndre Hopkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins/Mike Gesicki (Bengals)
Team Defense
- Chiefs
- Broncos
One Star
Quarterbacks
- Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
- Jared Goff (Lions)
Running Backs
- Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery (Lions)
Receivers
- A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith/Grant Calcaterra (Eagles)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown/Kalif Raymond/Sam LaPorta (Lions)
Team Defense
- Saints
- Ravens
- Chiefs
