Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary game script to help narrow down your decisions for the week.
Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus on those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league, and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 22nd @ 10 AM (EST)
Three Stars
Quarterbacks
- Joe Burrow (Bengals)
Running Backs
- Zack Moss (Bengals)
Receivers
- Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins/Mike Gesicki (Bengals)
Team Defense
- Jets
- Browns
Two Stars
Quarterbacks
- Jared Goff (Lions)
- Derek Carr (Saints)
Running Backs
- David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)
- Alvin Kamara (Saints)
- Jordan Mason (49'ers)
Receivers
- Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams/Sam LaPorta (Lions)
- Chris Olave/Rashid Shaheed/Juwan Johnson (Saints)
Team Defense
- Steelers
- Buccaneers
- Raiders
One Star
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen (Bills)
- Brock Purdy (49'ers)
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
- C.J. Stroud (Texans)
Running Backs
- James Cook (Bills)
- Derrick Henry (Ravens)
- Carson Steele/Samaje Perine (Chiefs)
- James Conner (Cardinals)
- Joe Mixon (Texans)
Receivers
- Khalil Shakir/Keon Coleman/Curtis Samuel/Dalton Kincaid (Bills)
- Brandon Aiyuk/Jauan Jennings/Eric Saubert (49'ers)
- Zay Flowers/Rashod Bateman/Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely (Ravens)
- Rashee Rice/Xavier Worthy/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Marvin Harrison Jr../Michael Wilson/Trey McBride (Cardinals)
- Stefon Diggs/Nico Collins/Tank Dell/Dalton Schultz (Texans)
- Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle/Jonnu Smith (Dolphins)
Team Defense
- Titans
- Chargers
- Seahawks
